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Donald Trump (right) and Narendra Modi met at the White House for talks in February
Indian Americans are increasingly optimistic about the future of India, but are deeply concerned about American-Indian relations as part of a second administration by Donald Trump, according to a new investigation.
The Indian-American investigation of 2024, conducted by the Endowment for International Peace and Yougov Carnegia in October, examined American Indian political attitudes.
Two central elections occurred in India and the United States last year, in the midst of an in -depth -but sometimes tense -partnership. Tensions between the countries have broken out on an American federal accusation of the Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and allegations of an assassination plot supported by Delhi on American soil.
With more than five million residents of Indian origin in the United States, the investigation asked key questions: how do the Americans of the Indians consider the treatment of former president Joe Biden of the American-Indian ties? Do they see Donald Trump as a better option? And how do they assess the trajectory of India after the 2024 elections?
Here are some key dishes of the report, which was based on an online survey representative nationally with 1,206 American adult residents.
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The United States has accused a former Indian conspiking intelligence officer to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun
Trump against Biden on India
The Americans of the Indians evaluated more favorably the management of the Biden-Indian Relations Biden Relations than Trump’s first mandate.
A hypothetical administration of Kamala Harris was considered better for bilateral links than a second term Trump during the survey.
Partisan polarization plays a key role: 66% of Indian-American Republicans believe that Trump was better for India’s American ties, while only 8% of Democrats agree.
Conversely, half of Indian-American Democrats favor Biden, against 15% of Republicans.
Since most Indian Americans are democrats, this gives Biden the overall advantage.
During their February meeting in the White House, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the leaders of each other, but Trump criticized the high trade prices of India, calling them a “big problem”.
Controversy of “murder for rental”
The alleged Indian plot to assassinate a separatist on American soil has not largely recorded – only half of the respondents are aware of it.
In October, the United States charged a former Indian intelligence officer of attempted murder and money laundering for allegedly plotting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a defender of the United States for an independent Sikh State, the Khalistan.
This has marked the first time that the Indian government was directly involved in an alleged attempted assassination on a dissident. India said it cooperated with the US investigation. In January, a panel created by India to examine the allegations of Washington recommended legal action against an anonymous person who would be the former intelligence agent.
A large majority of respondents said that India “would not be justified to take such measures and hold identical feelings about the United States if the posts were reversed”.
Israel and the Palestinians
The Americans of Indian origin are divided along the partisan party, the Democrats expressing greater empathy for the Palestinians and the leaning of the pro-Israel.
Four in 10 respondents think that Biden was too pro-Israeli in the current conflict.
The attack in October 2023 by Hamas in Gaza fighters killed around 1,200 people, mainly civilians, inside Israel and saw 251 people taken hostage. Most were released in ceasefire agreements or other arrangements.
The military offensive of Israel killed more than 48,000 Palestinians in Gaza, mainly women and children, according to the Ministry of Health managed by Hamas.
The talks to extend the fragile ceasefire, the first phase of which ended on March 1, should resume Qatar on Monday.
India’s prospects are clearing up
Forty-seven percent of Indian Americans think that India is heading in the right direction, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to four years ago.
The same share approves Modi’s performance as Prime Minister. In addition, four out of 10 respondents estimate that the elections in 2024 of India – where Modi’s party did not obtain a majority – made the country more democratic.
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A man holds a flag from India to “Howdy, Modi!” Event in Houston in 2019
The investigation has revealed that many American Indians support Modi and believe that India is on the right track, but half is not half of the alleged attempted assassination on American soil.
Does this indicate a gap in access to information, selective commitment or a tendency to neglect certain actions in favor of a broader nationalist feeling?
“It is difficult to disentangle the precise reason for this, but our feeling is that it has more to do with selective commitment,” said Milan Vahnav, co-author of the study.
The data collected by Carnegie in 2020 show that around 60% of Indian Americans regularly follow the Indian government and public affairs, leaving an important part which “undertakes only sporadically”.
“Often, people form large impressions based on a combination of news, social media and interactions with friends and family. Given the flood of news lately, it is not quite surprising that the” Murder-For-Hire “plot has not struck for a large part of the community,” said Vahnav.
Indian Americans, although prudent about Trump and generally promote Biden or Harris for American-Indian relations, continue to strongly support Modi in India. Given Modi’s nationalist policies, what explains this divergence? Is it more motivated by a personal impact than ideology?
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Modi won a third consecutive term last year in a much stricter general election than expected
“This is a case of” where you are sitting, that’s where you stand “,” said Vahnav.
He said in related research: “We have explored this question in depth and found that Indian Americans generally have more liberal opinions on American policy issues compared to India”.
“For example, while Muslim-American Indians-minorities in both India and the United States-still maintain more liberal attitudes, Hindu Indians of Americans express liberal opinions in the United States (where they are minority) but more conservative positions in India, where they belong to the majority.
“In other words, the majority or minority status of a person plays a key role in the formation of their political opinions,” said Vahnav.
If the Indian Americans considered Trump as a threat to bilateral ties, why did they kiss him during his first mandate, as we see during events as “Howdy Modi!”? Has their opinion on Trump changed because of his policies, or is it more about changing political currents?
“We must not generalize from an event or even a segment of the American Indian population. More than 50,000 Indian Americans gathered at” Howdy, Modi! “First and foremost to see Modi, not Trump.
“Secondly, it is a diversified diaspora with a range of political opinions. While Indian Americans look massively to the Democratic Party, a very important minority – we estimate about 30% in 2024 – support the Republicans under Trump.”
The Americans of Indian origin remain attached to the Democratic Party, but the attachment has decreased. Some 47% identify as a Democrats, compared to 56% in 2020, a survey revealed last year.
Do the Americans of the Indians have a nuanced understanding of political developments in the two countries, or are their opinions more influenced by the stories and the echo media in the diaspora?
VAHNAV said that 2020 data show that online news was the main source of information on India, followed by television, social media and word of mouth. In social media, YouTube, Facebook and Whatsapp were the most common platforms.
“Direct engagement with India is more limited, Indian Americans born abroad generally more involved than those born in the United States.
“That said, we must not ignore the fact that the links of cultural connectivity remain quite strong, even with the second and third generation Indian Americans.”
In the end, the survey highlights a complex portrait of the American Indian community – shaped by a mixture of selective engagement, political changes and variable personal experiences.
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