With monkeypox (formerly known as variola) now declared a global public health emergency, some are wondering whether the virus poses a risk of causing a COVID-like pandemic.
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the MPOX outbreak a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” on August 14, based on a rapid increase in cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and several African countries.
As of August 17, 545 cases of MPOX have been reported since the outbreak was declared, of which 474 have been confirmed, according to WHO data.
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According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), symptoms include a painful rash on various parts of the body, fever, chills, fatigue, muscle aches, headache, swollen lymph nodes and respiratory symptoms.
There are two types of mpox: Clade 1 and Clade 2.
On August 14, the World Health Organization officially declared the MPOX outbreak a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” (iStock)
According to the CDC, it was lineage 2 that caused the global pandemic in 2022. This type has a survival rate of over 99.9%.
Lineage 1, which is currently emerging in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Africa, causes more severe illness and death.
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“Although mortality rates have declined in recent outbreaks, some outbreaks have killed nearly 10% of those infected,” the CDC noted.
“The emergence of the new MPOX lineage, its rapid spread in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and reported cases in several neighbouring countries are extremely worrying,” WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in announcing the public health emergency.
“You can't catch MPOX just because you're on the same bus or bump into someone at the grocery store.”
“This, along with other MPOX lineage outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other African countries, clearly requires a coordinated international response to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”
Is mpox the next COVID?
Although health officials have expressed concern about the spread of new, potentially deadly strains of the virus, most agree that MPOX is unlikely to become a COVID-like pandemic, primarily because it does not spread in the same way that COVID does.
“Of course not,” Dr. Daniel Kritskes, chief of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, said in a conversation with Fox News Digital.
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“The reason COVID-19 is so contagious is because it is a respiratory virus that spreads by aerosols, so you can catch it from someone even through casual contact – being in the same room as them for any length of time.”
Another difference, Kuritzkes noted, is that COVID-19 is contagious for about a day before symptoms appear.
Symptoms of mpox include a painful rash on various parts of the body, fever, chills, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, swollen lymph nodes, and respiratory symptoms. (iStock)
“In contrast, MPOX almost always requires close contact (skin-to-skin contact) for infection,” he said.
“Although it is possible, in rare cases, that highly contaminated materials such as bedding can cause infection, you cannot catch MPOX just by riding the same bus or randomly meeting someone at the grocery store.”
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Kritskes said MPOX is much less contagious than COVID, but could cause “widespread epidemics” through sexual contact.
“HIV is now a pandemic (confirmed in every country in the world), but although it is prevalent, it is not transmitted through casual contact,” he said. “The same is true for MPOX.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends vaccination to prevent MPOX infection for gay men, bisexual men, men aged 18 and older who have sex with men, and other men at certain risk. (PASCAL GUYOT/AFP via Getty Images)
Dr. Mark Siegel, a senior medical analyst for Fox News and professor of clinical medicine at New York University Langone Medical Center, echoed the sentiment that mpox is “not the new COVID.”
“It's transmitted by direct contact, by sex, by kissing, by respiratory droplets in very close proximity, but long-distance transmission does not occur through the respiratory tract,” he told Fox News Digital.
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“Lineage 1 is currently present in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring African countries,” Siegel said.
“The United States is increasing surveillance, including wastewater analysis, but no cases have yet been found here.”
This undated image provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases shows a colorized transmission electron micrograph of mpox particles (red) found within infected cells (blue) cultured in a lab at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility in Fort Detrick, Md. (NIAID via AP, File)
Dr. Brad Perkins, chief medical officer at Carius, a California life sciences company focused on saving lives from infectious diseases, reiterated that MPOX is “much less transmissible” from person to person than COVID-19.
“MPOX spreads primarily from person to person, usually through direct contact including intimate contact, but on average, the number of people who become infected through contact with an MPOX patient is small compared to COVID-19,” he told Fox News Digital.
Who is most at risk?
“While anyone can be infected with MPOX, data shows that gay men are disproportionately affected, with the disease burden being particularly pronounced among black and Hispanic men,” Perkins noted.
“This highlights the importance of early recognition and diagnosis, as well as awareness and targeted vaccination of those most at risk.”
“Anyone can be infected with MPOX, but data shows that men who have sex with men are disproportionately affected.”
As with other viral infections, people with weakened immune systems and young children are at highest risk for severe infection, Kritskes said.
“In the case of MPOX, the main concern is people with HIV who are not currently receiving effective antiretroviral therapy,” he added.
Patients wait outside an examination room at an MPOX treatment center in the Democratic Republic of Congo on August 16, 2024. Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba said in a video message that the country has recorded “15,664 suspected cases and 548 deaths since the start of the year,” with all 26 provinces affected. (Getty Images)
Perkins warned that survivors could face long-term effects and complications even after they have cleared the infection.
“Reported symptoms include vision loss, encephalitis and scarring,” he told Fox News Digital.
“Further research is needed to characterize and address these long-term sequelae.”
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To prevent MPOX infection, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends vaccination for gay men, bisexual men, and men aged 18 years or older who have sex with men, as well as other specified at-risk individuals.
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These risks include a new diagnosis of a sexually transmitted disease or recent involvement with multiple sexual partners.
“The second, and most obvious, is to avoid close contact with people who have MPOX disease,” Kritskes said.
A doctor takes a sample from a patient at an MPOX treatment center in the Democratic Republic of Congo on August 16, 2024. (Getty Images)
“A major challenge is getting vaccines to those who need them in Central and West Africa to end the current epidemic.”
Siegel noted that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has sent 50,000 doses of the JYNNEOS mpox vaccine to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, “but this vaccine remains in global shortage and will be critical to stopping the spread of infection, especially if there is an outbreak.”
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Perkins emphasized the need for new innovations in the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of MPOX, in addition to currently available vaccines and antiviral treatments.
Melissa Rudy is senior health editor for Fox News Digital and a member of the lifestyle team. Send your story tips to [email protected].
