Washington –
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's landmark three-day visit to Central Asia, which begins on Friday, is likely to challenge the existing geopolitical balance in the region.
The Central Asia plus Japan Group is holding its first summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, where Foreign Minister Kishida, supported by a delegation of 50 Japanese business leaders, is expected to announce a $2 billion strategic economic assistance package.
Foreign Minister Kishida is also scheduled to visit Uzbekistan and Mongolia during his visit from August 9 to 12.
Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday that the meeting marks the 20th anniversary of the “Central Asia plus Japan” Dialogue, but is the first to meet at this level. “The friendship built over the past 20 years will be the foundation for further cooperation and partnership in the coming decades,” the post read.
Experts say that as Central Asia's natural resources and strategic role in trade and security capture global attention, Japan is seeking to counter Russia and China's dominance in the region with alternative models of trade and governance.
“The visit signals Japan's desire to counter or, more pragmatically, ease ties with Russia and China's historically close economic ties with Central Asian states,” said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
“But it would be unrealistic to think that Japan can quickly win over Russia and China by abandoning its close economic and security ties with them,” he told VOA.
China has become the largest exporter to the five former Soviet Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), with the support of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Meanwhile, Russia exerts significant influence over regional security through energy exports, labor migration, and its military presence, particularly in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
China hosted a summit with leaders of Central Asian countries in May 2023, followed by a high-level meeting hosted by the European Union in June, before the United States and Germany held their own summits in September.
Japan has maintained diplomatic relations with the Central Asian countries since their independence in the early 1990s. In August 2004, Japan established a regional framework called the “Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue.” Since then, other countries, including the United States, India, and South Korea, have also initiated similar diplomatic frameworks with the region.
A careful alliance
According to Nakano, Central Asian countries are wary of being dominated by Russia and China.
“However, with tensions between Japan and Russia and China rising, Japan's reasons for strengthening ties with Central Asian countries become even stronger,” Nakano said.
These tensions have been heightened by Japan's support for Western sanctions against Russia and its disputed Kuril Islands. Japanese concerns about Chinese military activity have also strained ties.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova issued a statement on Wednesday criticizing the Tokyo-led summit as “an attempt by Japan to make inroads in Central Asia.”
“We are confident that our Central Asian partners' wisdom will enable them to distinguish between an approach that supports mutually beneficial cooperation and a plan to reduce their countries to the status of a neo-colonial appendage in the Western camp,” she said in a statement.
“We hope that it is clear to them the destructiveness of such a prospect and the serious costs of losing full-fledged relations with Russia.”
Domestic motivations
Hiromoto Kaji, a professor at Aichi University, said that while the framework for new summits with Central Asian countries may seem like a foreign policy move, it is actually being driven by domestic political factors in Japan.
“The new cooperation framework that Kishida has now proposed does not fundamentally change policy objectives. Rather, he may be seeking to establish a 'diplomatic legacy' in preparation for the upcoming LDP presidential election,” Kaji told VOA.
The Liberal Democratic Party, led by Kishida, will hold an election in September to choose its next president.
Professor Takeshi Nojima of Daito Bunka University said Japan enjoys a higher level of goodwill in Central Asia and the Middle East than the United States.
“In Asia, the United States, Japan, China and Russia are competing for influence, one in Southeast Asia and one in Central Asia. Japan is effectively helping the United States manage its relations with the Central Asian countries,” Nojima told VOA.
Democratic engagement
Anders Ko, publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, said Japan's summit in Central Asia was a positive development that could bring more democratic influence to the region.
“The summit will focus on attracting Japanese diplomacy and business to the region and will support democratic influence efforts through economic incentives,” Ko told VOA.
Koh also said democracies needed to consolidate gains in the region by combining incentives for business with sanctions aimed at addressing authoritarianism and human rights abuses.
“As authoritarian regimes, including Iran, ring Central Asia become increasingly belligerent, these incentives and disincentives can only be ensured based on the economic, military and broader cohesion of democracies,” Ko said.
More than three decades after independence, the people of Central Asia continue to endure authoritarian practices and face restrictions on press freedom, civil rights, and political rights at various levels.
VOA Mandarin's Chung-Hsi Tu contributed to this report.
