Kazakhstan is the country where Russian President Vladimir Putin's planes have landed more often than anywhere else overseas. President Putin has visited neighboring countries more than 30 times during his quarter-century in power.
He visited 31 times as president and three times as prime minister. This makes a total of 34 trips. Even in Belarus, which is part of the Union with Russia, President Putin only made 27 visits.
– There are not many countries where President Vladimir Putin can safely travel. Temur Umarov, an expert at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, said that's why Putin visits Kazakhstan most often. “Annual visits to Central Asian countries are an obligatory element of President Putin's foreign policy,” he added.
Putin's path to the West is closed. After the invasion of neighboring Ukraine, visits to Europe and the United States are out of the question. The number of countries he can visit has been further narrowed after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for war crimes.
Russia – Kazakhstan. Astana fears attack
President Putin's 35th visit to Kazakhstan, which begins on Wednesday, takes place against the backdrop of an escalating war. Moscow, which regularly drops bombs and attacks Ukrainian territory with missiles and drones, used an experimental ballistic missile for the first time on November 21. The hypersonic Oreshnik, which is being tested in a neighboring country, is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Russia says. Putin claimed this was in response to Ukraine's decision to allow long-range missiles made by the United States and Britain to be launched deep into Russian territory.
The Western reaction to the move was very slow, but Kazakh leaders declared the need to take “urgent action” and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered his subordinates to ensure the security of military and civilian facilities. I was instructed to do so. A government management meeting was subsequently held without the participation of the press. A 40-second video of the event released on national television channels had no audio.
– Behind this is the authorities' potential fear of an attack by American long-range missiles on Russian military targets on the territory of Kazakhstan – Kazakh political scientist Gaziz Abyshev, author of the Abyshev Analytics Telegram channel commented on Astana's reaction.
Kazakhstan is Russia's training ground
Russia has military and aviation training ranges on the territory of Kazakhstan. If this attack fails, civilian infrastructure may be damaged. This time, artillery fire on the Russian fleet in the Caspian Sea could ricochet and affect Kazakh cities.
“Astana, concerned about escalation, will receive President Putin with special pomp and pomp on November 27th, as he will receive his visit as a state guest, the highest-level visit traditionally accompanied by courtesies. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will also be waiting for him. A plaque in honor of the guest guard of honor should be installed on the plane's gangway for him,” the independent portal Azatik reports.
British journalist Joanna Lillis emphasizes that countries like Kazakhstan, which has always been one of Putin's key allies, are very important to him. Kremlin leaders are trying to show that Kazakhstan remains in Russia's sphere of influence. “I think his visit is an important part of this effort,” he added.
War in Ukraine. Russia focuses on Kazakhstan
As Russia became mired in war in Ukraine and faced a coup attempt last year, many Western media outlets began writing about its weakening influence in Kazakhstan and the Central Asian region. However, facts and figures show the opposite. Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan shows no signs of deteriorating. Since the start of the war, President Putin has visited Astana three times. Tokayev visited Russia 12 times.
Trade transactions between these countries have increased over the past three years. If it was $24 billion in 2021 before the war, it will exceed $27 billion in 2022. From January to August this year, mutual trade amounted to nearly $20 billion.
Although Astana officially claims to comply with the Western-imposed sanctions regime, a number of private companies registered in the country have been observed supplying dual-use goods to Russia. There is. More than a dozen companies in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are facing sanctions from the European Union and the United States over their support for the Kremlin's military apparatus.
The number of Russian companies in Kazakhstan has increased from 17,000 in three years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, almost one out of every two foreign companies in the country is a Russian company.
Decolonization of Central Asia? “Kazakhstan must act”
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, trends in Central Asia, which historians consider to be an expression of decolonization, intensified. In Kazakhstan, this discourse is fueled by aggressive attacks by Russian politicians and propagandists who make territorial claims and denounce discrimination against Russian-speaking people. Some Russian authorities are calling for Kazakhstan to be “denazified,'' following the example of Ukraine.
In the face of such attacks, Astana is forced to maneuver. Before Putin's arrival, Kazakhstan's parliament ratified an agreement establishing an international organization to promote the Russian language in the Commonwealth of Independent States.
– This is an attempt by the Kazakh leadership to show complete loyalty to Russia. Demonstrate that Russia is an important ally and that Kazakhstan will not turn away from Russia, abandon the Russian language, or pursue nationalist agendas. To prove this, Kazakhstan previously announced the Year of the Russian Language. All this is determined by concerns that Russian discontent could turn into a full-scale invasion in Ukraine. Timur Umarov argues that Kazakhstan wants to protect itself from such a tragic scenario.
Domestically, Tokayev's idea of supporting the Russian language does not have unconditional support, including among parliamentarians. Some commentators say ratification of the agreement is a coercive measure.
– This idea will cost Tokayev a certain political price in the country, since it is not popular among all Kazakhs. Some people express the opinion that it is the Kazakh language, not the Russian language, that needs protection in Kazakhstan, says Joanna Lillis. “Mr. Tokayev, of course, believes this is necessary to reassure Russia and give the impression that measures are being taken to protect the Russian language on Kazakhstan's initiative,” he added.
Kazakhstan has discovered the truth of history. Moscow doesn't like this
The opening of Soviet KGB archives after the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed Kazakh historians to see Soviet and pre-Soviet history from a different perspective, learning about the era of collectivization and famine in the steppe. . Stalinist repression and nuclear weapons tests at the Semipalatinsk test site claimed millions of lives.
Just as the study of the Holodomor was once met with trepidation by Ukrainian historians, this process is being viewed with dismay in Russia. The Russian government said these stories were artificially exaggerated and that such rhetoric was aimed at stirring up anti-Russian sentiment. In the case of Ukraine, claims from Russia were increasing. Moscow then accused Kiev of the genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass and launched a military invasion.
Experts believe that the topic of the invasion and its consequences could be one of the main topics of the closed-door meeting between Putin and Tokayev. Tokayev recently visited several European capitals, including France, Hungary and Serbia. Observers believe the Kazakh president could act as an intermediary to convey messages to Putin from Western politicians who do not communicate directly with the Russian leader.
– Today, there are situations in which Kazakhstan has become the most suitable handshake player in Eurasia, able to communicate and cooperate. Timur Umarov commented that Tokayev can play the role of mediator well.
Konwinski's “graffiti” depicting a free Christmas Eve: You can't be surprised/Porsat News/Porsat News
