The impact of intergroup conflict on demographics has long been debated, especially in prehistoric and non-state societies. In their study, scientists from the Complexity Science Hub, the University of Washington, and the Leibniz Center for Archaeology believe that beyond the direct casualties of combat, conflicts can create “landscapes of fear” that can lead many non-combatants near conflict zones to abandon their homes and migrate.
The Battle of Orsha by Hans Krell.
“Around the world, scientists have extensively studied and debated the existence and role of prehistoric conflict,” said Dr Daniel Condor, a researcher at the Complexity Science Hub.
“But it remains difficult to estimate the impact on population numbers and so on.”
“The situation is further complicated by potential indirect effects, such as people leaving their homes or avoiding certain areas out of fear.”
These indirect effects of conflict can have caused significant long-term demographic changes in non-state societies such as Neolithic Europe (c. 7000-3000 BC).
“Our model shows that fear of conflict led to population declines in potentially dangerous areas.”
“As a result, people began concentrating in safer areas, such as on the hills, and overpopulation threatened to increase death rates and decrease birth rates.”
“The results of the simulation study are in good agreement with empirical evidence from archaeological field investigations, for example the Late Neolithic site of Kapellenberg near Frankfurt, dating to around 3700 BC,” added Dr Detlef Groenenborn, researcher at the Leibniz Archaeological Centre.
“There are many examples of agricultural land being temporarily abandoned as groups retreated to more defensible locations and invested heavily in extensive defensive systems such as walls, palisades and ditches.”
“The concentration of people in particular, often well-defended locations, may have led to growing wealth inequalities and political structures that legitimised these differences,” said Dr Peter Turchin, a researcher at the Complexity Science Hub.
“As such, the indirect effects of the conflict may have also played an important role in the emergence of larger political units and the rise of early states.”
To simulate the demographic dynamics of Neolithic Europe, the authors developed a new computational model.
To test their model, the researchers used a database of archaeological sites and analysed a number of radiocarbon dates from different locations and time periods, under the assumption that this reflects the scale of human activity and therefore population numbers.
“This allows us to explore the typical amplitudes and time scales of population growth and decline across Europe. Our goal was to reflect these patterns in our simulations,” Dr Conder said.
“Direct collaboration with archaeologists is crucial to ensure we have as complete a picture as possible.”
“This study is a great example of the potential of such interdisciplinary collaboration.”
The research was published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface.
_____
Daniel Condor et al. 2024. Landscapes of fear: Indirect effects of conflict may cause large-scale population declines in non-state societies. JR Soc. Interface 21 (217): 20240210; doi: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0210
This article is based on an original release by Complexity Science Hub.
