The Miami Marlins (48-84) and Colorado Rockies (49-84) meet in the third of a four-game series on Wednesday at Coors Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:40 PM ET. Break down the Marlins vs. Rockies odds from BetMGM Sportsbook and make your best betting predictions and forecasts from MLB experts.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-1
After losing 3-2 in Monday's opener as a +104 underdog, the Marlins bounced back with a 9-8 win on Tuesday as a +132 underdog with the over (11.5) easily winning. Miami scored five runs in the ninth inning after entering the inning trailing 8-4 with a 1.1% chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics.
The Rockies led by as many as six runs in the second inning. It was just the second time this season that Colorado has lost a lead of five or more runs to the Marlins. The other was a 7-6 10-inning win at home to Miami on April 30.
The Marlins and Rockies have the worst and second-worst records, respectively, in the National League.
Marlins vs Rockies predicted starting lineup
RHP Max Meyer vs. LHP Kyle Freeland
Meyer (3-3, 5.44 ERA) is making his 10th start. The rookie has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings.
Last start: A 6-3 home win against the Chicago Cubs, pitching six innings and allowing three runs on six hits, two walks and two strikeouts in a win-or-lose situation. Friday 2024 road record: In four starts, he is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA (19 innings, 12 runs), a 1.42 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts in nine innings. Never faced the Rockies.
Freeland (3-6, 5.70 ERA) is making his 16th start and has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 79 innings.
Last appearance: 3-0 loss against the New York Yankees on Friday, 6 2/3 innings, two runs (three earned), five hits, two walks, three strikeouts, loss against the New York Yankees on Friday 2024 home record: 1-1 in seven starts, 3.86 ERA (37 1/3 innings, 16 runs), 1.23 WHIP, 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings Career record with the Marlins: 2-0 in six appearances (four starts), 3.60 ERA (25 innings, 10 runs), 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings; 0-0 in one start last year, 3.60 ERA (5 innings, 2 runs)
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Marlins vs Rockies odds
Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 12:37 PM ET.
Money Line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rockies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Rockies -1.5 (+155) Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Marlins vs Rockies predictions and forecasts
prediction
Rockies 5, Marlins 4
Money Line
Colorado (-130) has a good chance of winning if Freeland takes the mound, but I wouldn't want to pay more than -120 for the Rockies. Freeland has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his past five starts and two in each of his past two appearances against Miami.
Pass on ML. Bet on KYLE FREELAND to allow under 3.5 earned runs (-140).
Against run line/spread
Miami +1.5 (-190) will probably cover the run line, but it's hard to bet on a line with such a vig and still be profitable in the long term.
Pass. Instead, bet on Freeland's ER prop and/or total.
Over/Under
Freeland's run projections are somewhat derived from full-game totals, but the under is still a good bet at this number. Freeland has allowed just four runs combined in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts, and the Rockies have allowed three or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games.
Bet on under 11 (-115).
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