The FantasyLabs MLB Player Model contains numerous data points that can help you build your MLB DFS roster.
You'll find the lowest, median and highest projections for each player, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. You'll also find trending tools, stacking tools and more.
And don't forget that for large field tournaments you can easily create up to 300 lineups using the Lineup Optimizer, or if you want to manually build your team for cash games or small field tournaments you can use the Lineup Builder.
Finally, be sure to check out PlateIQ, one of the most robust sources of research on MLB DFS.
Let’s take a look at some of the MLB plays that stand out in today’s schedule player model.
Great Value Rating Picks
You may be wondering, “What is a Bargain Rating and why should I care?”
The Bargain Rating indicates how much of a bargain a player is from one DFS site to another. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than on another, he will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the more affordable sites and a lower Bargain Rating on the more expensive sites. This is a simple metric, but targeting discounted players is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain valuations are highly correlated with a player's value, and this can be readily seen in our projected plus/minus metric.
Given that Plus/Minus helps predict how many points a player is expected to score compared to the number of points expected from his salary, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Great Prices
Dalton Versho ($3,500): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays
Dalton Varshaw may be known for his defensive prowess, but he's also been improving offensively in recent weeks. The Toronto Blue Jays outfielder's improved production has led to more runs and fantasy potential, which will culminate on Tuesday night as the Blue Jays continue their division series against the Los Angeles Angels.
Varshaw's analytical profile shows signs of coming out of a slump this year. The 28-year-old posted a .772 OPS in August, above his .690 season benchmark. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage are still below his career averages, so the coming weeks will be a good indication of Varshaw's continued production.
Plus, in a post-trade-deadline world, Varsho has assumed a more prominent role offensively. After the Blue Jays traded away all the assets they could, they needed more quality at-bats at the top of their lineup. The former second-round draft pick has filled that void, being promoted to the No. 2 spot and scoring six runs in his past 10 games.
Varshaw has come close to hitting fantasy highs on a few occasions recently, but he looks promising against Carson Fulmer. The Angels starter is a throwback candidate, posting a projected 4.32 ERA and .420 slugging percentage that's well above average. These factors should allow Varshaw to continue his onslaught and put up another outstanding fantasy performance.
Use Sleeper promo code LABS1 to get a $100 deposit match and be sure to check out all the pick 'em Sleeper has to offer.
MLB DFS ceiling picks
pitcher
Michael King ($9,500) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The San Diego Padres are in their element this season. Winning 17 of their last 20 games, the Padres are closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the National League West. After Tuesday's showdown with the Pittsburgh Pirates, I expect the Padres to close the gap even further by getting the most fantasy value out of presumptive starting pitcher Michael King.
King, the linchpin of last offseason's trade for Juan Soto, has been virtually hitless in the recent schedule. Since June 29, the Padres right-hander has allowed just 22 hits in 35.2 innings pitched. Combined with the nine walks he has allowed, King has a Cy Young Award-worthy 0.87 WHIP in his past six starts. As expected, this correlates with a decline in scoring production, with King posting a 2.27 ERA in four quality starts in that span. This fantasy value is likely to continue against a Pirates team that has more strikeouts than nearly any team in the major leagues.
Pittsburgh has abandoned any discipline at the plate this season, recording the fifth-most strikeouts in the major leagues. That level has worsened recently, with the Pirates striking out 127 times in their last 12 games for a strikeout rate of 29.3%. This has coincided with a period of improved effectiveness for the Kings, with the 29-year-old striking out 42 times in a six-game sample.
Listen up, listen up. King will have another great performance on tonight's main slate and live up to his expectations as our median and ceiling projection leader. There's nothing the Pirates can do to limit King's effectiveness. I have no doubt he'll be the top of the lineup tonight.
batter
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels
It's been easy to overlook the Blue Jays this season, especially after MLB's trade deadline, but those paying attention have seen the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the heat of the summer. His 22-game hitting streak was snapped Sunday, but the Blue Jays' slugger remains a major threat every time he steps up to the plate.
Guerrero Jr.'s improvement was always expected. He continues to be rated as one of the top analytical players in the game, ranking in the 97th percentile or higher in expected batting average, slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard hit percentage. In addition to his top-tier barrel rate and bat speed, it will be impossible for opposing pitchers to slow down Brady Jr.
Guerrero has posted an impressive slugging percentage of .955 over his past 24 games. In that span, he's hit 10 home runs, one triple, 12 doubles and 19 singles in 89 at-bats. Equally impressive is that he's recorded a multi-hit game in nearly half of those 24 games (11). Still, Brady is running nearly 40 points below his expected slugging percentage, suggesting the best is yet to come.
Of course, those power metrics go hand in hand with scoring improvement. Guerrero Jr. has 25 runs and 22 RBIs since his breakout in mid-July. Fulmer and the Angels' relievers only got better tonight. We expect Guerrero to lead the way again on Tuesday night.
DraftKings MLB DFS Batter and Pitcher Details
One of the great benefits of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB predictions is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. Once purchased, you can use his predictions on their own or create aggregate predictions within our player models.
In this example, we blended THE BAT X with FantasyLabs projections 50/50 and identified hitters who stood out in this blend.
MLB DFS Pitchers
Paul Blackburn ($7,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
Every once in a while, a revenge scene is just too fascinating to miss. Just days after being traded from the Oakland Athletics, Paul Blackburn will be facing his former team at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Blackburn has found his groove with the New York Mets and is an undervalued fantasy asset in tonight's main slate.
Admittedly, we're working with a very small sample size, but Blackburn has still been solid in his two starts for the Mets. The 30-year-old has allowed just 11 hits in 12.0 innings pitched, striking out 12 and allowing just two runs. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider he has yet to take the field in Queens, so we might see a more productive side of Blackburn in tonight's interleague showdown.
There's not much else to say about the Athletics. They remain the worst team in MLB, and their metrics have plummeted even further since the trade deadline. The Athletics are currently trailing with a .678 OPS, allowing few runs per game and striking out a lot. Those issues will be exacerbated with pitchers stepping onto the mound looking to prove something against former teammates.
Blackburn's limitations aren't exactly reflected in his salary against the Athletics. Since joining the Mets, he's improved his strikeout rate and has had two quality starts, and we're expecting those two trends to continue in Tuesday's main event.
The MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator is now available, leveraging the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.
MLB DFS Batter
Juan Soto ($6,100) vs. Chicago White Sox
Few players can match Juan Soto's analytical profile. The left-handed slugger lives in the shadow of Aaron Judge but remains one of the top hitters in the game. He's the obvious favorite tonight against right-hander Jonathan Cannon, but the prospect of Soto wielding the hammer on Tuesday night is even more enticing.
Analytically, Soto is impressive — his 57.4% hard-hit rate, 20.2% barrel rate and average exit velocity of 94.7 mph put him in the 100th percentile for expected batting average and slugging percentage — but somehow, the Yankees outfielder is 100 points below his expected value with a .586 slugging percentage compared to a .680 expectation.
Though he didn't get a hit last night, five of his last nine hits have been extra base hits, including two home runs over the weekend, and he's on a roll in July, batting .670 with 18 of his 31 hits being extra base hits.
Cannon's traditional stats are decent, but he hasn't done anything to slow down hitters, ranking in the bottom half of MLB in expected ERA and average exit velocity and consistently getting outplayed, as reflected in a less-than-optimal 7.4% barrel rate and 38.1% hard-hit rate.
While both Soto and Judge present attractive options for tonight's game, I'm going to go with Soto in this situation. He has the upside of swinging from the left side and is more valuable due to his lower salary. Soto is worth the investment in Chicago.
Marcus Semien ($4,800) vs. Boston Red Sox
Our final pick is the hitter-friendly matchup between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. There will be no shortage of fireworks on this night as the Rangers and Boston Red Sox show off their offensive prowess with the highest scoring teams. The Rangers have some notable hitters, but Semien is the one to watch.
The Rangers second baseman finished July strong, posting an impressive .853 OPS in 94 at-bats. Inconsistency limited his production through the start of August, but a stronger showing is expected on Tuesday. A regression was inevitable for Semien, who posted a .479 slugging percentage last month, but after dropping to .342 through the first two weeks of August, it's time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.
Additionally, Semien has a good matchup with the cutter Crawford. The Red Sox starter has been one of the worst pitchers in terms of barrel rate this season, hitting 10.6%, which is in the eighth percentile. He relies heavily on his four-seam and cutter, throwing them a combined 65.0% of the time. This plays to Semien's strengths, as he has an expected slugging percentage of .494 against fastballs this season.
As expected, Crawford has allowed a surprising number of home runs: 27 long fly balls in 131.1 innings pitched, the most in the AL, translating to 1.8 home runs per nine innings. A few hitters should have no trouble getting at Crawford, but we expect Semien to do the most damage as the leadoff hitter.
