MLB DFS Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB player model.
Friday night's MLB schedule is split into five early games and an eight-game main slate that begins at 7:05 PM ET. The biggest games are on the main slate, with the 16 teams in the player pool providing a variety of ways to field strong lineups. Three of the eight games are divisional matches, with the Padres facing the Rockies at Coors Field. Offensive power is good in this matchup at altitude, but the FantasyLabs model shows there are plenty of places to find good options this Friday. Let's take a look at some of our top picks.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick Corbin Burns ($9,700) Baltimore Orioles (-219) vs. Boston Red Sox
Barnes has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections of all scheduled starting pitchers in Friday Night Fantasy Lab's projections. Barnes isn't the highest-priced option on this list either, but he has the third-highest projected plus-minus in these projections. In THE BAT X's projections, Barnes has the second-highest ceiling projection and the sixth-highest projected plus-minus.
Against the Red Sox, Barnes has the second-highest strikeout projection among all scheduled games, while Boston has the second-lowest projected runs among all scheduled games, according to the Vegas Dashboard.
Barnes had a great first season with the Orioles, going 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA, 3.48 FIP and 8.24 strikeouts per nine innings. His strikeout numbers are down a bit, but he's still garnering 19.6 DraftKings points per game. His recent starts have been decent, but they've come on the road against tough opponents. With a 2.09 ERA and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings at home this year, he has a lot of potential and is worth the big spend against the fading Red Sox.
Boston remains in the running for a wild card, but has lost six of its last eight games. Most of the issues are with the starting pitching, but the lineup has plenty of strikeout potential to keep them in check, as they did on Friday night. Zach Eflin got off to a strong start, allowing just one run. Barnes will be looking to pick up where he left off with another strong, quality start to go down in the season log.
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MLB DFS Value Picks
Spencer Arrighetti ($8,500) Houston Astros (-192) vs. Chicago White Sox
Arrighetti has been dominant in his last two games, and now a matchup against the White Sox represents the best opportunity for the 24-year-old. He has the fourth-highest projected value in both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections, and is tied for the most Pro Trends among scheduled starting pitchers.
Arrighetti has struck out 25 batters in 13 innings over his past two starts, dominating the Rays and Red Sox. He earned 31.3 DraftKings points against the Rays and recorded a career-high 40 DraftKings points last Saturday against the Red Sox.
While his numbers over the course of the season have still not been great, he has been much better recently, posting a 3.25 ERA, 3.34 FIP and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in his last six starts, with five of those games seeing at least six strikeouts, suggesting his strikeout potential is high.
On Friday, he will face the White Sox, who have allowed the lowest team points total. Over the past 30 days, the White Sox have averaged 2.9 runs per game and have the worst wOBA and wRC+ of any team in MLB.
He's the fifth-highest priced starting pitcher on this list, but he has very high potential and is the best value in this smash spot.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Sean Manaea ($8,700) New York Mets (-231) vs Miami Marlins
Although he is priced at less than $9,000, Manaea has the highest projected ceiling of the entire slate and the second-highest projected plus/minus of all starting pitchers, as projected by THE BAT X. FantasyLabs projects him with the second-highest projected ceiling and the highest projected plus/minus.
Manaea has had an up-and-down season, which is why he's best taken as a risky GPP player with a big payoff. His final outing on Saturday was a down day at Seattle, where he earned just 1.4 DraftKings points, but he showed his true potential in his two previous starts with seven shutout innings and double-digit strikeouts. In those games, he earned impressive DraftKings points: 40 against the Twins and 36.2 against the Cardinals. He has a 3.44 ERA, 3.80 FIP and 9.2 K/9 this season, averaging 16.1 DraftKings points per game.
Manaea has faced Miami twice this season, but this will be his first time starting at home against a division rival. The Marlins sold players at the trade deadline, but their offense has improved a bit recently. They hold the second-lowest wOBA and second-lowest ISO against lefty pitching this season and have a team wRC+ of just 75 against lefty pitchers (MLB average is 100, by definition).
This matchup could be a chance for the 32-year-old to bounce back, as he carries a high ceiling to match his salary, but he could also fail, so be mindful of that if you add him to your team.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
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The top DraftKings stack, generated by Projected Points using aggregate projections in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model, belongs to the San Diego Padres.
The Padres are in a good position to face former Friar Cal Quantrill ($5,800) at Coors Field, so it's no surprise they're top stacked on the board given the altitude and the opponent. Quantrill is 7-8 with a decent 4.56 ERA this year, but he has given up 21 runs in 20 innings over his last five starts, including five hits and three runs in 4 1/3 innings in his most recent appearance with San Diego. His splits are roughly even, but it's worth noting that Jurickson Profar and Kyle Higashioka have each hit multiple home runs against him in past meetings.
Manny Machado has the second-highest projected ceiling of all hitters in the overall projection, while Luis Arraez has the fifth-highest projected plus-minus of all hitters and the second-highest at first base. He typically bats at the top of the Padres' lineup, with Profar right behind him, making them a nice one-two punch to build around.
Further down the line, rookie Jackson Merrill has been great over his last 20 games, batting .356 with six doubles, three triples, five home runs and a wOBA of .445. He’s also garnering an impressive 14.3 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games, and his salary in the Mile High City isn’t too high.
More MLB DFS Batter Picks
One of the great benefits of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our MLB predictions, THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is also available in our marketplace, which when purchased will allow you to use his predictions on their own or create aggregate predictions within our player models.
In this example, we used a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify the hitters that stood out.
OF Michael Harris II ($3,800) Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
Harris stands out in the overall projection as he has the highest projected plus-minus of all hitters. He just returned from a two-month absence, but has already resumed his role as the Braves' leadoff hitter and has a ton of power and speed potential.
Harris hit a grand slam in his return on Wednesday, earning 22 DraftKings points and moving into the leadoff spot on Thursday. In six rehab games, he is 10-for-23 (.435) with one home run and a .468 wOBA. After hitting .290 or better in each of the past two seasons, Harris is batting just .249 this season, but he has six home runs and eight stolen bases, giving him plenty of room for improvement.
The Braves are battling with the Mets and Giants for the final National League wild-card spot and will need Harris to return to a productive role soon.
OF Will Brennan ($2,800) Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Aaron Cival)
Brennan has the second-highest projected plus-minus among outfielders behind Harris, and he is expected to continue batting second in the Guardians' order against right-handed hitters, a position he has very good potential for.
Brennan was sent to the minor leagues when Cleveland traded for Lane Thomas earlier this month, but he made a strong case for returning to a key role with 13 hits in 31 at-bats (.419 batting average), four doubles, one home run and a .488 wOBA with Triple-A Columbus. He's performed well in his six games back in Cleveland, going 8 hits in 21 at-bats (.381 batting average) with one double, one triple and recording at least one strong hit in every game, per Statcast.
Brennan is one of several left-handers facing off against former teammate Aaron Civale on Friday night. Using the PlateIQ tool, here's what the Guardians' lineup looks like for this matchup:
1B Jonah Blaydes ($3,100) Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
Blaydes' solid production is one of the reasons the Marlins' lineup has improved so much recently: The 28-year-old right-hander has the third-highest projected plus-minus among first basemen making under $4,000 and has beaten his salary-based expectations in eight of his past nine games.
In those nine games, Blaydes had 10 hits in 30 at-bats, eight walks, eight RBIs, two home runs and a .442 wOBA. This season, he is batting .306 with a .407 wOBA on the road.
His advantage in splitting against left-hander Manaea at Citi Field and his very affordable salary make him a viable option if you want to keep first base on the cheap and free up other power hitters in the outfield or other key positions.
