MLB DFS Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB player model.
On Saturday night, Major League Baseball will have seven strong matchups under the lights on the main DFS fantasy baseball slate. Action will begin at 7:10 pm ET with four games starting simultaneously. The Braves and Nationals are scheduled to start just 10 minutes apart, before two West Coast games complete the schedule later in the evening. Of the 14 teams in the player pool, here are the top picks from the FantasyLabs model for this Saturday:
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick Tarik Skubal ($10,900) Detroit Tigers (-320) vs Chicago White Sox
Tarik Skubal has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all starting pitchers in both FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He also has the highest strikeout projection, and according to Vegas Dashboard, the Tigers have the most favorability on the board.
Skubal has had a dominant season, starting 25 games and posting a 14-4 record with a 2.49 ERA, 2.66 FIP and 10.7 strikeouts. He is tied for the MLB lead in wins and leads the AL in ERA, FIP and strikeouts. In 25 games this season, he is averaging 23.9 DraftKings points per start.
Skubal's most recent start came against the Yankees, where he struck out five batters and earned 17.3 DraftKings points. He'll have a much better matchup against the White Sox, who are last in MLB in runs scored, second-worst batting average and lowest wOBA this season. Over the past 30 days, the White Sox have averaged just 3.1 runs per game, a wRC+ of 73 and a K% of 24.5%. Skubal earned 27.7 DraftKings points against the White Sox in Opening Day.
Skubal has scored 23 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight games, allowing two or more earned runs only once during that stretch and recording at least eight strikeouts in six of those games, so if you can get his salary under the cap, he's a top choice on the board this Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($7,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-192) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Another left-handed pitcher who could potentially be in the mix on Saturday is Kershaw, who is recovering after missing the first half of the season following offseason shoulder surgery. He has the highest projected plus-minus of all starting pitchers in Fantasy Lab's projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X's projections. Kershaw is also tied for the most in Pro Trends.
Kershaw has allowed just two runs over 16 1/3 innings over his past three starts. In his most recent start, he pitched six scoreless innings at St. Louis, earning 18.5 DraftKings points and earning his second win of the season. He only struck out twice in that game, but in his two previous starts he recorded 11 strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings, showing he still has plenty of strikeout ability.
Kershaw isn't the pitcher he was in his prime, but he's definitely worth checking out for under $8,000 in this matchup against the Rays. Over the past 30 days, Tampa Bay has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the MLB with a team batting average of just .219 and a strikeout rate of 25.5%.
Kershaw and the Dodgers are the second-best favorites to win the game behind Skuba and the Tigers, and building a team around the two left-handed pitchers would be a solid start to building the team for Saturday's game.
The MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator is now available, leveraging the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Michael King ($9,800) San Diego Padres (-155) vs New York Mets
If you want to avoid the Skubal choke, one strong pivot to consider in GPP is King. King is tied with Kershaw for the most Pro Trends wins and has the second-highest highest, median and lowest projections on the night behind Skubal. In FantasyLabs projections, King has a better projected plus/minus than Skubal and a slightly better points/sal.
In his first season with the Padres, King has adjusted well to his new role as a starter, going 11-6 with a 3.18 ERA, 3.33 FIP and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 games. The right-hander has been particularly strong in his last eight games, posting a 2.08 ERA, 2.16 FIP and 58 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings. He has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of those eight games and has earned 25 or more DraftKings Points in four of his last six games.
This will be King's third consecutive home start after striking out 16 in 12 innings in his previous two starts, in wins over the Pirates and Twins. The matchup against the Mets is a relatively neutral one, but his recent success at home against strong lineups is a good sign.
His rising strikeout rate gives him enough height to challenge Skubal for the top spot on this schedule, and if his ownership projections remain very low compared to Skubal's, he could be a solid GPP replacement and a good way to increase your negotiating power while saving over $1,000 in salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Featured Stacks
The Lineup Builder makes it easy to put your stacks together into your DFS roster.
And don't forget that for large field tournaments, you can easily create up to 300 lineups using the lineup optimizer.
In the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model, the top DraftKings stack, generated by projected points and ceiling using aggregate projections, is the New York Yankees.
The Dodgers boast top of the line depth tonight, as they have all season. The top of their lineup is as good as it gets every night, and if you can buy them, they have a very good chance in this matchup with Taj Bradley ($7,500) and the Rays. Bradley has a 3.55 ERA and 3.97 FIP this season, but he is more likely to get hit on the road than at home. Outside of the Tropicana, he has a 4.50 ERA, a 4.92 FIP and allowed a .332 wOBA. He is also slightly more likely to get hit by lefties than righties.
Shohei Ohtani celebrated joining the 40/40 club on Friday night, hitting exactly 40 bases and hitting a home run in both at-bats. He's batting .292 this season with a .413 wOBA. He has the highest ceiling and lowest projected value of any hitter in the composite projections and is averaging 14.6 DraftKings points per game over his past 11 games.
Mookie Betts ranks in the top five in both the high and low end projections for the composite set, batting .273 (12-for-44) with two home runs and one stolen base in 11 games since returning from injury. With lefties available against Bradley, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and even Gavin Lux could help complement the stack, or you could throw in Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith as mentioned above.
More MLB DFS Batter Picks
One of the great benefits of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is also available in our marketplace, which when purchased will allow you to use his projections on their own or create aggregate projections within our player models.
In this example, we used a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify the hitters that stood out.
OF Michael Harris II ($4,300) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Of the hitters entering Saturday's game, Harris has the third-highest cap projection behind Ohtani and Betts in the overall projections, making him a very valuable option at just $4,300. He also has the second-highest projected plus-minus of all hitters due to being near the top of the projections overall, despite having the 15th-highest salary among outfielders.
Harris is working his way back up to the top of the Braves' lineup after missing two months with a hamstring injury. He homered in his first game back and homered again on Friday. Since his return, he's batting .231 (9-for-39) with a .302 wOBA and a 50.0% hard-hit rate, per Statcast.
On Saturday, they will face off against pitcher Jake Irvin, who showed signs of potential early in the season but has struggled recently, giving up seven home runs, 23 hits and 11 runs in his past three starts.
OF Matt Beiring ($3,800) Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (Kai Bush)
The Tigers have a chance to get some serious value in a favorable matchup Saturday against the White Sox and left-handed pitcher Kai Bush. Beerling still tends to be at the top of the lineup against lefties and has the third-highest expected plus-minus among outfielders entering Saturday's game.
Over his past 12 games, Beirling is 15-for-49 (.306 batting average) with three doubles, two stolen bases and one home run, earning him 8.2 DraftKings points per game. On Friday, he had two hits and earned 14 DraftKings points in Detroit's 5-2 series-opening victory. Beirling will look to keep that momentum going against Bush, who has allowed six runs and walked 15 in 14 2/3 innings in his three MLB starts.
Using the PlateIQ tool, here's how the Tigers' lineup looks against Busch.
SS Mason McCoy ($2,200) San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
McCoy has hit in three straight games since being promoted by the Padres and, while making just above the minimum salary, he enters Saturday with the second-highest projected plus-minus among all shortstops and the sixth-highest among all hitters.
McCoy has had a long road to MLB, spending time in the farm systems of the Orioles, Mariners and Blue Jays before joining the Padres. He hit .260 with five home runs and 25 stolen bases with the El Paso Chihuahuas in Triple-A this season. He was promoted after an injury to Kim Ha-seong (shoulder) and is averaging 6.3 DraftKings points with three hits in eight at-bats and two walks.
If you need to save salary, McCoy is a solid option with great potential, and if you're willing to pass on an elite shortstop, McCoy would be a solid pivot that would allow you to put money into other positions.
