MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB player model.
Thirteen games are scheduled for Tuesday, starting at 7:05 pm ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick Cole Lagans ($9,500) Kansas City Royals (-205) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The top three pitching projections for Tuesday are very similar in both Fantasy Lab and The Bat's median projections, separated by less than a percentage point, with Ragans coming in first in the former and second in the latter.
Ragans has an impressive 3.18 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate this season, which gives him a big edge in DFS, especially in relatively solid matchups like tonight. The Angels rank 17th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, although some of that number was when Mike Trout was still healthy and playing.
Ragans is a solid prospect and safety with the Angels expected to score just 3.4 points on Tuesday, and he's worth his salary no matter what format the game is played in.
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MLB DFS Value Picks
Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-241) vs Chicago White Sox
Robbie Ray has made just five starts this season since returning from injury. During that time, he's pitched 21 innings with a 6.00 ERA, but none of those games came against the White Sox. Chicago is arguably the best opponent in baseball for pitchers (handed or not) as they have the worst wRC+.
Plus, Ray's upside is very enticing: Though he's struggled this season, he has a 32.6% strikeout rate and a 15.4% swinging strikeout rate — both of which are among the best in the league — and could be even higher against a strikeout-heavy White Sox team.
Ray's salary reflects his relatively poor performance so far this year, but he has a long track record of success when healthy and tonight's opponent is ideal. With Vegas stats at their best, the market expects him to get back on track, making him an obvious DFS option.
You could make a case to fade Ray in cash games based on uncertainty, but it's still pretty thin. He leads both prediction systems in Pts/Sal projections and is right on the edge of “having to play” tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zack Wheeler ($9,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-135) vs. Atlanta Braves
The top No. 3 pitcher in today's model is Wheeler. He has the second-best odds of winning the NL Cy Young Award (well behind Chris Sale), which says a lot about how well he's doing this season. He'll take the top spot in many projections, but a combination of somewhat difficult matchups and other strong options could get him overlooked today.
Despite having roughly the same projections, Wheeler is a bit behind both Ray and Ragans in the ownership projections. Given that you can save a little salary from Ragans, Wheeler is clearly a solid GPP pivot. His numbers are reasonable compared to Ragans, with a slightly lower ERA but also a lower strikeout rate.
The ownership differences are likely explained by perceptions of each opponent. The Angels feel like an easier team for pitchers to face, but that may not actually be the case. Los Angeles has a higher wRC+ against lefties than Atlanta has against righties, and the Braves have a higher strikeout rate.
Of course, Wheeler isn't without risk, as Atlanta is looking to make a near full run tonight, and I'd probably find an extra $200 for Ragans in a cash game, but I'm happy to pivot in a tournament of any size.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Featured Stacks
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The top DraftKings stack, generated by ratings using an aggregated set of projections in the FantasyLabs MLB player model, is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Buying the Dodgers today would require sacrificing some pitching, but it would be well worth it. Tonight's game against Seattle looks set to guarantee 4.8 runs, with most of the scoring likely to be concentrated among the top hitters.
Betts, Freeman and Ohtani are all top-15 hitters in MLB by wRC+ (which would be the case if Betts were to take an at-bat and qualify), making them solid options for everyday play. Seattle's Bryce Miller ($8,300) isn't a pitcher we would typically target, but they are matchup-neutral hitters.
Additionally, this game is being played at Dodger Stadium, which is relatively favorable for hitters, and Miller's numbers are backed up by the fact that his home ballpark is the best in the major leagues for pitchers, making this matchup even more favorable than it might initially appear.
More MLB DFS Batter Picks
One of the great benefits of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is also available in our marketplace, which when purchased will allow you to use his projections on their own or create aggregate projections within our player models.
In this example, we used a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify the hitters that stood out.
Outfielder Aaron Judge ($6,800) New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians (Matthew Boyd)
If I were to pay for the best outfield hitter, I would prioritize Judge over Ohtani tonight, mainly due to a pitching duel with left-hander Matthew Boyd, who posted an ERA above 5.00 last season (and has only started one inning this year).
The Yankees aren’t an ideal stack because they have poor numbers overall against lefties, but Judge (and Juan Soto ($6,500)) have excellent numbers as seen by PlateIQ.
In a similar (but slightly higher) price range, I would prefer the Judge/Soto combo over Betts/Otani, but their current high salaries make this difficult.
Outfielder Austin Slater ($2,500) Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
One way to alleviate the salary burden would be to bring in Slater, who is currently making just $2,500 despite being expected to be the Orioles' leadoff hitter, and Baltimore projects a solid 4.2 runs per game total, making him a bargain for his role.
Slater has performed much better against left-handed pitching thus far, batting .274 for his career. He has struggled in a small sample size this season, but I tend to trust a larger data set, which is another reason to consider him today, although price/value is obviously a big draw.
Tyler Fitzgerald SS ($5,20) San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
Just like yesterday, the Giants have a great team total (5.2 on Tuesday, their highest ever) and are playing a terrible White Sox team. It's important to draw attention to the Giants, and rookie shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald is a great way to do that.
In 62 games, he has 14 homers, 14 stolen bases and a .314 batting average. If he can keep up that pace over the course of a season, he'll be well above 30/30. While he's not particularly cheap himself, the Giants' depth is generally cheap, making them a solid option during a salary-conscious schedule.
