MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB player model.
Eleven games are scheduled for Wednesday, starting at 6:35 pm ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-122) vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday is also a schedule that doesn't offer many quality pitching options, as evidenced by Robbie Ray topping both THE BAT and FantasyLabs' median projections. Ray has a 3.98 ERA in four starts this season and made his 2024 debut in late June after missing most of the year.
Since his return, Ray has struck out a third of the batters he's faced, the best of any starting pitcher this season, even Chris Sale. The emphasis on strikeouts makes Ray an intriguing option for any schedule, especially since Ray's salary is lower than it would have been if he'd been healthy all season.
The Braves' once-mighty lineup is nothing special either, which makes this matchup favorable — they boast a top-10 strikeout rate against lefties, and their low expected runs rate of 3.7 makes Ray a relatively safe option.
Typically I would want better moneyline odds and lower opponent totals from a top starter, but I would usually end up paying over $9,000 for it. Ray is a very solid pick considering the price.
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MLB DFS Value Picks
David Peterson ($7,300) New York Mets (-185) vs. Oakland Athletics
Today's contenders include two pitchers with similar value in price, but both have their pros and cons: Peterson tops the list in Pts/Sal in THE BAT model, but he's second only to Edward Cabrera ($6,000) in the FantasyLabs model.
As is often the case, the decision will depend on what type of matchup you are evaluating. Peterson is a solid option in cash games with a 3.34 ERA and only 3.7 runs expected from the opposing Athletics, but a strikeout rate of just 18.4% limits his potential.
Cabrera, on the other hand, has a roughly 10% higher strikeout rate, giving him a better chance of earning a “must have” score, but with a 5.20 ERA and facing the Phillies, whose projected runs against him of 5.2 are among the highest on this schedule, the risk is high.
So, look to Peterson in cash games and small field GPPs, while using Cabrera in large field contests to aim for higher scores. Cabrera is expected to be less owned, another reason to use him in larger tournaments.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Ronel Blanco ($9,300) Houston Astros (-125) vs Tampa Bay Rays
Many DFS players will probably balk at Blanco's price today because he is projected to be slightly worse, at $700 more than Robbie Ray. Of course, that's a reasonable stance to take. I would pick Ray over Blanco at the same price, especially with the savings.
Of course, ownership matters too. Ray is clearly the best player on this slate and therefore the most popular. If he struggles, Blanco could definitely be the must-have option. This makes him a typical “pay to be contrarian” option in a large-field GPP.
Blanco's strikeout rate is a solid 24.5%, but his 13.4% strikeout rate means it should be higher, and his ERA is 3.02. ERA predictions are pretty poor, but he pitched over 100 innings, so it's hard to rely on regression analysis.
Additionally, the Rays are in the top 10 in strikeouts against right-handed hitters, but have a below-average wRC+. These numbers were mostly acquired before they traded away all the hitters everyone's heard of, and their current lineup is much worse. This works to Blanco's advantage, as he's second only to the Rays in median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs model.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Featured Stacks
The lineup builder makes it easy to put your stacks together into your DFS roster.
And don't forget that for large field tournaments, you can easily create up to 300 lineups using the lineup optimizer.
The top DraftKings stack, generated by ratings using an aggregated set of projections in the FantasyLabs MLB player model, is the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals are projected to score a solid 4.9 runs today, but a lot of that is down to the ballpark. The Cardinals get a big upgrade by moving to Cincinnati, a top-five ballpark in baseball for runs scored. More importantly, the Great American is also the ballpark with the highest home run batting average, giving the Cardinals a healthy edge.
They'll also have a fairly easy matchup with opening pitcher Emilio Pagán ($4,000), followed by the Reds' relief pitchers, who are solid but still not worth the seven innings they'll need.
The Cardinals' roster is also very cheap, given their status as the visiting team and their solid total projected value. This gives them room to spend on other superstar hitters and pitchers. With all three outfield positions open with their first five hitters, they have plenty of top hitters to choose from.
More MLB DFS Batter Picks
One of the great benefits of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is also available in our marketplace, which when purchased will allow you to use his projections on their own or create aggregate projections within our player models.
In this example, we used a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify the hitters that stood out.
Outfielder Brent Rooker ($5,800) Oakland Athletics vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
One of the more expensive outfielders is Brent Rooker, and while he and the rest of the Athletics roster will be playing against the aforementioned David Peterson, solidifying the Athletics' outfield in a lineup without Peterson makes a lot of sense.
Check out their numbers against lefties on PlateIQ:
It's a small sample size and Peterson isn't an easy opponent, but they can certainly do damage, and they pair well with a full Cardinals stack in GPP against a large field.
Outfielder Victor Robles ($3,500) Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers (Bo Briesky)
Beau Bleesky ($6,300) is listed as a starter, but it will be another relief pitching battle for the Tigers as they only have two actual starters, which is good news for the Mariners as Detroit's relief staff is extremely overtaxed at the moment.
Robles is expected to start as a leadoff hitter and is expected to average 4.4 runs per game. That's a bit low, especially considering how strong his legs are. He's played in 57 games this season and has stolen 16 bases.
Outfielder Marcell Ozuna ($5,900) Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
Ray's ownership rate is high enough today that a lineup without him should strongly consider at least one other opposing hitter, and Ozuna is the obvious choice here: he's hit 35 home runs this season and is batting .333 against lefties like Ray.
He's also currently projected to have a sub-3% ownership rate in both models, meaning that a big day for Ozuna would make him twice as influential against the Rays' lineup.
