Saturday's matches should be fun. We usually try to include players from both matches, but most of the matches start in the evening. There are 10 matches starting at 7pm ET with big prize pools, so that's where we'll focus.
With that in mind, let's take a look at what's on offer this Saturday.
Saturday's MLB DFS and player picks
Saturday's starting pitcher rankings
Corbin Burns (BAL) vs. TB
Tampa used to be a scary opponent, but this season they've been an easy team to conquer. The Rays rank 24th in xwOBA, 28th in runs scored and 23rd in strikeout rate. That makes Corbin Burnes a good target for the Rays, earning at least 20 FanDuel points in all 23 starts this season. That's translated into an impressive 2.63 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, including seven scoreless innings in his lone appearance against Tampa.
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. CWS
Justin Steele gave up five runs two games ago but has otherwise been great. The Chicago left-hander has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts over the past three months while maintaining a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP during that time. This is a guy we've seen for a long time and with this being a home matchup against another Chicago team, he's likely to be even better. The White Sox rank last in runs allowed, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. Steele comes into this matchup as a -250 favorite.
Michael Wacha (KC) vs. STL
Revenge games are absurd, but Michael Wacha likes this position. It's not about revenge, it's about the opponent and how Wacha is doing. Wacha has allowed three runs or less in 13 straight games. He's also better at home with a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP during that span. That's tough on a struggling St. Louis offense that ranks 21st in runs scored and 19th in xwOBA.
River Ryan (LAD) vs. PIT
At this point, I would put him in anyone against Pittsburgh. The Pirates rank 22nd in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, 28th in wOBA, and 25th in strikeout rate. In a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Dodger Stadium, it will be tough, especially with River Ryan in such good form. The right-hander has allowed just three runs in three starts with a 1.72 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He is also projected to score 7.5 total runs in games, with the Pirates projected to score less than four.
MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks
Atlanta Braves (vs. Cal Quantrill)
This feels unfair. Atlanta's offense wasn't the best last season, but they still rank in the top half in almost every offensive metric. This is scary at Coors Field, because the Braves are projected to have the best offense in this game and are projected to score six runs. Cal Quantrill has a 4.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP since the start of last season, so that's not a surprise.
Chicago Cubs (vs. Chris Flexen)
Chris Flexen, like the rest of the White Sox, is struggling this year with a 5.53 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, which is on par with his career ERA of 5.06 and 1.49 WHIP, and the Cubs could be a tough opponent to face at Wrigley Field.
MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs
It's hard to believe how good Bobby Witt has been lately. The MVP candidate is hitting .464/.824/1.313 in his last 31 games. He's also a different player at home, hitting .409/.736/1.145 at Kauffman Stadium. Never mind Andre Pallante's 4.43 ERA/1.37 WHIP. It's hard to believe Jose Ramirez isn't even an AL MVP candidate, but that's a credit to Witt and Aaron Judge. Ramirez is no joke, hitting 29 home runs, stealing 24 bases and posting an .879 OPS. This stat pack has made him a DFS favorite for the last eight years, and his 1.465 OPB over the last nine games is impressive. Matt Olson has been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy, but we're talking about a guy who hit 54 homers and 139 RBIs last season. There are signs he's getting back to that guy, with a .969 OPS over the past 12 games. He also has a platoon advantage over Quantrill, with a .913 OPS against right-handed hitters since the start of last year. Ian Happ has developed into Chicago's most valuable hitter, with 17 homers and seven stolen bases as a leadoff or third base hitter. Almost all of his damage has been against right-handed pitchers. Since 2021, Happ has posted a .353 on-base percentage and a .791 OPS against right-handed pitchers. We've already talked about how great he is against Flexen. In the Cubs stack, Happ is a solid value against him.
MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts
It's hard to believe Jackson Holiday is still this cheap. There's a reason this kid was the top draft pick and the most highly anticipated prospect in baseball. After a slow start in his first promotion, Holiday is hitting .387/.786/1.173 with an OPS in his last seven games. Tampa has him on the TBD list and will likely play bullpen games, so that looks even better. Jackson Chaulio started off slow in his rookie season, but he's starting to get back on track. The talented outfielder hit two home runs on Thursday and is hitting .408 with an OPS of 1.094 in his last 16 games. This is what we've been waiting for, and it's not like we're going to move on from Chaulio against a journeyman like Nick Martinez. Matt Wallner bats fourth every time Minnesota faces a right-handed pitcher, and it's easy to see why. The slugger has been enjoying the platoon advantage, hitting .420 with a 1.092 OPS. He's been even better recently, hitting .500 with a .933 slugging percentage and a 1.433 OPS over his last 10 games. This should be a good move against struggling Gavin Williams, who is posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. It's hard to find a coveted player in this Cubs roster, but Michael Bush is one of the best options against right-handed pitching. Bush is hitting .352 with a .818 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and .359 with a 1.016 OPS over his last 11 games. That's why he's moved up the list, but the price doesn't reflect his recent improvement.
Saturday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Griffin Canning: 3.5 strikeouts – or more
That total seems low. Griffin Canning has met that requirement in eight of his last nine starts and has struck out at least six times in three straight starts. That shouldn't be a challenge against a 24th-ranked Nationals offense.
Logan Webb: 6.0 Hits Allowed – Low
Logan Webb has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years and shouldn't have any issues facing the 26th-ranked Tigers offense at Oracle Park.
Bobby Witt: 1.5 total bases – or more
Bobby Witt has a near 1.500 OPS at home over the past month and needs just one extra-base hit to clear the mark, which he has done in 12 of his past 16 home games.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer here at FantasyPros. To see more of Joel's work, check out his archives and follow him. Bartilotta Joel.
