This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB bets for Sunday, August 18th
There are less than 40 games left in the MLB regular season, or about 25% of the 162-game marathon. Every series essentially has a playoff feel for the teams competing for a wild-card spot. The Phillies have the worst record in MLB since the All-Star break, and while they're not doing well, they're somehow the best in the National League. Over the past 10 games, they've turned things around and are playing similarly to how they have for the first three months of the season.
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The Phillies are eight games behind the Braves and nine games behind the Mets entering Sunday's game. The Phillies have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Braves have a 75 percent chance, and the Mets have a 25 percent chance of earning a wild-card berth. The Phillies will face the Mets seven times over the remainder of the season.
The Brewers are on a four-game winning streak and lead the NL Central by 10 games over the Cardinals and 10.5 games over the Cubs. In the West, the Padres and Diamondbacks are both on a roll and have cut the Dodgers' lead in the division to just two and three games, respectively.
The Padres are 4.5 games back in first place in the Wild Card division. The Diamondbacks are 3.5 games back in second place, and the Braves are one game back of the Mets in third place. In the American League, the Yankees are just ahead of the Orioles in first place in the Wild Card division. The Twins are quietly catching up with the Guardians in second place, 20 games back. The Royals are 2.5 games back of the Red Sox in third place in the Wild Card division.
Best bets for Diamondbacks vs Rays
The betting market has the Rays as +105 underdogs and the Diamondbacks as -115 favorites in this interleague game. Currently, 78 percent of the money is on the Diamondbacks, which is not surprising given how well they've performed this month. However, it would be a bit extreme and unreasonable for the betting community to bet the entire team on the Diamondbacks when they are prone to reverting to their season average performance. They have batted over .300 in their last seven games, which is not sustainable in the National League, where only two players have batted over .300 in a season.
Who will be the starter?
The Rays will turn to Drew Rasmussen, who will be making his second start and fourth appearance of the season. Rasmussen has pitched in 88 games, 47 of which were starts, with a career record of 20-10 with a 3.01 ERA, 1.091 WHIP and 272 strikeouts.
On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Merrill Kelly, who is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 29.1 innings pitched in six starts.
Diamondbacks vs Rays MLB betting algorithm
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a record of 16 wins and 12 losses (57 percent), an impressive return on investment (ROI) of 19 percent on an average of 121 bets, and a profit of $8,120 for bettors placing $1,000 per game and $406 for bettors placing $50 per game.
Bet on the visiting team of the National League. That team has averaged 6.85 runs or more per game in their last seven games. The game is an interleague match. The host team has a batting average of .230 or less in their last seven games.
I am betting the Rays will beat the Diamondbacks to win this game as a +105 underdog (DraftKings Sportsbook).
Use this DraftKings promo code to sign up and get a $150 bonus bet. Always check our MLB odds page for the best and most up-to-date odds.
Best bets for Guardians vs Brewers
This will be a monster matchup for both teams as the Brewers look to clinch one of three Wild Card spots and the Guardians look to win the AL Central Division. This will be the third and final game between the two teams as the Brewers look to sweep the Guardians. Over the past five seasons, the Brewers are 8-3 with an average underdog bet of +103 and a 42 percent ROI on betting against the Guardians.
Some trends and perspectives supporting the Brewers
Brewers manager Pat Murphy has an average 24-7 record and -112 edge in the following games, giving him a 50 percent ROI.
Enters the game after the second game of a series. Enters the game after the opponent has hit two or fewer home runs. The previous starting pitcher has thrown 30 or more pitches that were called balls.
Murphy is 9-0 in games played in August with a 96 percent return on investment and is coming off a start in which he has forced zero double plays defensively.
Murphy is 22-7 (76%) and has a 47% ROI when shooting 8.5 points or less in total and not taking the lead in his last game.
Guardians vs Brewers MLB betting algorithm
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a record of 43 wins and 29 losses (60 percent), with a 24 percent ROI and a profit of $16,590 for bettors betting $1,000 per game, and a profit of $829.50 for bettors betting $50.00.
Bet on under odds of 8.0 to 10.0 runs. The home team odds are between -125 favorite and +125 underdog. The home team has won three straight games in the series against their current opponent. Both teams have a winning record. The game will be played after the All-Star break.
I like to bet on this matchup separately on the Brewers (-121 ML/BetRivers) and Under 8.5 Runs (+103 BetRivers) rather than a parlay.
Little League Classic Best Bets
Tigers manager AJ Hinch is 15-1-1 in games played in August, with the under having a 94 percent ROI against opponents in the Eastern time zone.
Tonight in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, at the Little League Classic, I think the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees will play for a projected total of 7.5 points or less.
MLB Best Bets Summary
Rays Moneyline (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook) Brewers Moneyline (-115 at BetRivers) Brewers vs Guardians 8.5 runs or less (+103 at BetRivers) Tigers vs Yankees 7.5 runs or less
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