There may be a small number of MLB games tonight, but that won't stop our experts from getting some exposure to the limited offerings. Yesterday, Isaiah failed to cash in a Nolan Chanuel ticket, but Nathan cashed in an Ellie de la Cruz ticket with a clutch double in the ninth inning. Take a closer look at our MLB expert picks and predictions for today's baseball games. Visit our expert picks page for more bets. Or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays yourself.
MLB Expert Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 15th
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MLB Expert Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 15th
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@is_sirois – Player Prop – Rafael Devers O/U 1.5 TB: As the Red Sox head to Camden Yards, the Orioles will bring in right-hander Zach Eflin. Left-hander Rafael Devers will beat him to a pulp. Devers boasts a .462/.462/1.154 slash line in 13 at-bats against Eflin, and a .322/.408/.671 slash line against all right-handers this season.
Eflin has been effective against left-handed hitters this year, slashing .232/.265/.365, but that didn't stop Devers from hitting a double against Eflin in May. Eflin's batting average may even be obscured by his former home ballpark: The Tropicana ranks 29th in park coefficients for left-handed hitters.
Things will be a bit tougher for Eflin given that he's currently pitching at Camden Yards, which ranks 15th in park factor for lefty hitters (8th in base hits, 25th in doubles and 9th in home runs). It also helps that Devers is slashing an incredible .455/.500/.636 in the Charm City this year.
With Eflin out, he'll leave it to Baltimore's solid relief staff, which has allowed the fourth-fewest hits (349) and 10th-fewest home runs (44) on the team, but Eflin isn't the only one Devers is dominating: Against all active Baltimore pitchers, Devers is batting .349/.398/.640.
The only healthy lefties in Baltimore's relief corps, LHP Keegan Akin and LHP Greg Soto, are allowing Devers to hit .286/.375/.429 and .286/.286/.571 lines, respectively. It's just ridiculous that Devers would only need +129 to have a multi-base performance for the Caesars.
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MLB Expert Picks and Predictions for Today: Rafael Devers at Caesars with 1.5+ Total Bases +129
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Bryce Harper O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: LHB Bryce Harper has been the epitome of a man on fire GIF this past week. He's batting .409 with one home run, three doubles and a 1.162 OPS. So with one of the best hitters in baseball in top form at the plate, there's really no reason for him to have a -125 line for hits, runs and RBIs.
The Phillies will host left-hander Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals, and Harper and the Phillies are expected to score five runs tonight.
At first glance, Parker's numbers look decent – a 3.83 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP – but digging deeper reveals a projected 4.50 ERA, low whiffs (21.2% whiff rate) and a sub-20% strikeout rate.
Additionally, he throws primarily two pitches to lefties — a four-seam fastball and a slider — and for a player who already struggles to get hitters to pitch, having such a limited arsenal against a hitter of Harper's caliber seems a bit lethal.
In 143 at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season, Harper is batting .301/.559 with eight home runs and 13 doubles. Of course, it's a small sample size, but it's still a bit surprising that Harper is 31 points better against his same-handed opponent.
Parker has proven to be a reverse splitter in his short career so far, allowing a .277/.303/.375 slash line to lefties and a .232/.288/.399 slash line to righties.
A hitter like Harper knows no bounds and odds of -125 are never good enough. The line should be closer to -145 or -150, especially in a matchup and hitting environment like this.
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MLB Expert Picks and Predictions for Today: Bryce Harper, 1.5 H/R/RBI or better, -125 on DraftKings
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