Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
At Opening Pitch, our goal is to highlight our daily predictive edge on MLB Moneylines and Totals, share our favorite bets, provide some betting notes and analysis, and provide our free MLB Picks and MLB Expert Picks for today's games to give you the best insight and recommendations.
My predictions for all of Friday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 23rd.
MLB Predictions Friday, MLB Expert Predictions, Odds, Preview for Today August 23rd
Tanner McGrath's MLB Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions, picks and preview
Ryne Nelson (RHP, Arizona) vs. Bryan Bello (RHP, Boston)
A Friday night game at lovely Fenway Park starting at 7pm, and I wish I could have been there to watch this MLB game, especially considering the intriguing pitcher matchup.
However, even though I am a die-hard Sox fan, I expect the Snakes to win this game at odds of +100 or higher, and considering the betting odds are in Arizona’s favor in their current form, this game is one of the best MLB bets today.
Among MLB lineups against right-handed sinker/changeup pitchers, the Diamondbacks have the highest expected wOBA (.362), second-highest barrel rate (9%) and fourth-lowest strikeout rate (8%). Over the past month, Arizona leads the league in OPS (.922) and wRC+ (152) against right-handers, with the runner-up close behind. They also have the third-highest walk rate (10%) and fourth-lowest strikeout rate (18%) in the same split over that time period.
The Diamondbacks are on a roll. The entire lineup is hitting. Corbin Carroll overcame a sluggish first half and is hitting .252/.342/.598 in the second half, making him a potential low-price candidate for next year's NL MVP. Ketel Marte should get some 2024 NL MVP votes given he ranks third among NL-eligible hitters in wRC+ (152).
They'll be facing Brian Bello, who has had some strong showings recently against the Rangers (six innings, one run, five strikeouts) and Orioles (six innings, one run, six strikeouts). He's regained control of his changeup and is getting more grounders and strikeout pitches, a combination that made him so appealing as a rookie.
Still, I wouldn't buy him back just yet. The crux of his issues this year (4.80 ERA) is his inability to control his sinker/changeup combination. He's consistently thrown his sinker too high in the zone. He's also walking too many batters, three in each of his last three starts and 13 in his last 28 innings. He gets out of trouble with timely grounders, posting a 3.20 ERA with an 87% strikeout rate in his last five starts.
Is he going to throw his ducks into a pond against the best sinker/changeup hitting team in the major leagues? It's a tough task, especially considering the holes in the Red Sox's center field defense, and they're not going to be able to catch the hard ground balls that Bello's pitch combination can hit.
I usually like to bet on the Diamondbacks with Ryne Nelson on the mound. He doesn't pitch amazingly, and I'm concerned that his advanced pitching model metrics have dropped significantly since his rookie year (117 Stuff+ in 2022, 98 this year). But he's a league-average pitcher (4.35 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR) and will always give the Snakes a chance to win. He's been good recently, posting a 2.82 ERA in his last eight starts, with Arizona winning seven of them.
More importantly, I like Arizona's bullpen with the addition of AJ Pack. The Diamondbacks needed a left-handed reliever because Joe Mantipule was struggling, but Pack has been impressive since being acquired from Miami, striking out 14 and allowing just one earned run in 11 innings over 13 appearances. Combine him with Kevin Ginkel, Justin Martinez and Paul Sewald and the Snakes have the third-most valuable bullpen over the past month (2.0 fWAR).
Considering the Red Sox's lineup is dominated by left-handed pitchers, Puk could play a big role in the closing stages of close games, and if the trio of Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Masanao Yoshida take the mound, AJ is expected to take the mound.
Conversely, it's unclear what's going on with Boston's relief staff. The Red Sox relief corps has completely tanked, posting a 6.36 ERA over the past month and losing five games in the past two weeks. Zach Kelly and Luis Garcia are embarrassing.
The Red Sox have a capable offense in this matchup, but the Diamondbacks have a huge advantage in relief pitching and defense. Arizona is a top-five defensive team. Plus, the Diamondbacks probably have the advantage offensively.
I think Arizona will be favored heavily on Friday, and I don't see why the Snakes are the underdogs.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+114, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+100)
Tanner McGrath's Best MLB Cardinals vs Twins Bets: Pick David Festa!
Andre Pallante (RHP, STL) vs. David Festa (RHP, MIN)
Keep betting on the Twins, guys, our MLB Expert Picks and MLB Moneyline Picks always highlight the Twins as a strong choice.
I (mostly seriously) think we saw a preview of the World Series when the Padres hosted the Twins at Petco earlier this week. San Diego won two of three games, but the Twins gave up 11 runs in the final game to Matt Waldron and the best relief pitchers in the league. I love both teams.
But back to the point: Among lineups against right-handed four-seam/sinker mix pitchers in MLB, the Twins have the second-highest expected wOBA (.365) combined with the third-lowest ground ball rate (38%). Against right-handed pitchers more generally over the past month, the Twins have posted a 123 wRC+ and the sixth-highest team OPS (.789).
It will be a tough matchup for Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. He mixes up his four-seam and sinker pitches more than 70% of the time and looks to induce as many grounders as possible. He is the best in the business, inducing a 67% grounder rate since his promotion in 2022. That's 7 percentage points higher than his certified grounder rate (Framber Valdez, 60%) during that span. That said, he has yet to face Minnesota.
I also don't think Pallante has pitched that well lately. He has a 4.15 ERA in his last six starts and the Cardinals are 1-5 in those games. In games where Pallante has started this year, the Cardinals are just 7-15.
Part of the problem is the offense. Over the past month, the Cardinals have posted a .668 OPS and an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their BABIP has worsened during the winning streak (.264, 27th), but their batting average over that span is not great: .370 (25th), with 17 home runs (26th) and 22 doubles (29th).
Meanwhile, I'm a big believer in David Festa, who had a pair of horrible starts to his MLB career (12 earned runs in 10 innings against the Diamondbacks and Tigers) but has since had a stellar career, posting a 2.38 ERA, 31 strikeouts in 22 innings and a 104 pitching+.
I love his form. His combination of fastball, slider and changeup works really well. His four-seam has a really long extension (7 feet) and a long ride (17 inch iVB) that helps him fool the changeup, and he's generated a 42% strikeout rate with his off-speed pitches. If he continues to throw his fastball high and his secondary balls low, he'll be a valuable addition to any relief rotation.
At the end of the day, Festus can control the Cardinals. Who knows if Pallante can control the Twins.
Minnesota is dealing with injuries to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Brooks Lee, and relief chemistry is hard to predict. But while the Twins had a rest day on Thursday, the Cardinals used three of their most impactful relievers (Andrew Kittridge, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley) in a tough 3-0 win over the powerful Brewers. The Twins often rest their relievers, and I've read reports that Buxton may return for Friday's home game.
Of all the MLB games today, this matchup stands out because of the Twins’ offensive prowess and Festus’ recent form.
Bet: Twins ML (-136, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-150)
Tanner McGrath's Mets vs. Padres predictions, picks and preview: Best over/under bets
Paul Blackburn (RHP, NYM) vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP, SDP)
Paul Blackburn’s velocity has declined in recent starts.
Game day average fastball speed, average sinker speed, average slider speed, 8/2 vs LAA 91.991.080.98/7 vs COL 92.690.981.18/13 vs OAK 91.691.479.58/18 vs MIA 90.990.679.5
In contrast, Joe Musgrove appears to be on the brink of a return. Since returning to the starting rotation after months on the disabled list, Musgrove has pitched 8 2/3 scoreless innings, and his cutter and curveball look much improved.
That said, Musgrove has played against the Pirates and Rockies since his return, and the power-hitting Mets should be a wake-up call.
The same could be said for Blackburn, who has played against the Angels, Rockies, Athletics and Marlins since moving to Queens.
The Mets (110 wRC+) and Padres (115 wRC+) boast the best lineups in the league against right-handed pitching, and are often featured in MLB Picks and MLB Score Projections due to their strong offense. Both are patient, contact-heavy, nasty lineups that make it hard for weak starting pitchers.
After a string of weaker opponents, it doesn't look like either Blackburn or Musgrove are ready to step up the difficulty.
I like both bullpens quite a bit, but given the starting pitching combinations and offensive strength, I have a hard time believing the total will be anywhere near 8. BallParkPal's game simulation model is predicting a score closer to 9 in this matchup.
It's also worth noting that PETCO's Park Factor increased significantly this year, likely due to removing ivy from center field to improve hitter sightlines. From 2021-2023, PETCO ranked 29th (95) in Park Factor, but this year it ranks 15th (100). San Diego went from a pitcher-favored ballpark to a league-average scoring environment, but the market couldn't keep up. Few teams have scored more home runs over the course of the season than the Padres this year.
Bet: Over 8 (+100, bet365) | Bet on 8 (-110) The MLB score predictions for this match are based on data from the MLB season, highlighting the importance of accurate predictions for bettors.
Tanner McGrath's Rays vs Dodgers MLB Best Bets: Rely on these MLB Moneyline Picks
TBD (TBR) vs. Bobby Miller (RHP, LAD)
I'm looking for a way to make Bobby Miller disappear.
He's a mess. His fastball velocity has dropped so much (from 97 to 99) that none of his second pitches are working. He can't decide on anything. He allowed eight runs and 11 walks in 13 rehab innings at Triple-A before returning to the Dodgers' starting rotation, where he allowed four runs with one strikeout, one walk and two outs in four innings against the Cardinals.
The Rays are playing well. After the deadline selloff, everyone was writing them off like crazy, but they've won five of their last seven games, including a home sweep of the in-form Diamondbacks. The Rays lead the league in bullpen fWAR over the past month (2.1), with Edwin Uceta and Garrett Clevinger automatically performing well (2 earned runs, 33 strikeouts in 25 innings). The rotation also looks strong behind Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Zach Littell and Ryan Pepiot.
Maybe the Rays are underrated because everyone assumed they were dead. This team isn't dead yet.
You can't bet on the Rays until the starting pitcher is finalized, but the big positive odds on Bobby Miller against an underrated Tampa team are very appealing.
Lean: Raise ML (+165, BetRivers)
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McGrath's MLB Predictions and Forecasts for Friday, August 23rd
For additional betting alerts, follow me on the Action Network app (@tannerstruth) In this article, we provide expert MLB picks and predictions and highlight the availability of free MLB picks to help you get through the long MLB season and make the most of your betting opportunities.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+114, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+100)Minnesota Twins ML (-136, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-150)New York Mets vs San Diego Padres over 8 (+100, bet365) | Play to 8 (-110)Watch: Rays ML (+165, BetRivers)
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