Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 baseball season.
Opening Pitch's goal is to highlight our daily predictive edge on MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My predictions for all of Sunday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, August 18th.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert Predictions, Odds, Today's Preview (August 18th)
Brad Cunningham's Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions, picks and preview
Cutter Crawford vs. Albert Suarez
Cutter Crawford is in the middle of a very tough time. His home run problems have worsened, and he has given up at least four runs in each of his last five starts. He was very solid for the Red Sox in the first half of the season, posting an xFIP of 4.11, but since the All-Star break he has allowed 13 home runs in just 24 innings, which has resulted in an xFIP well over 5.00. He cannot continue to perform so badly and stay in the starting rotation. The good news for him is that the weather is on his side tomorrow, with a wind blowing around 8 mph out of right field.
It’s worth noting that even during this awful stretch, Crawford only has an xERA of 3.95. His 107 Stuff+ rating and 105 Location+ rating are the exact same as they were before the All-Star break to now, meaning there hasn’t been a dramatic change.
Albert Suarez has been a below average starting pitcher this season, with an xERA of 4.21 and has completely changed his pitching style. In his two seasons in the KBO, he pitched in the zone and had a ground ball rate well above 60%. Now he's falling into a trap that most pitchers in baseball fall into – throwing fastballs high in the zone a very high percentage of the time.
(Image from Baseball Savant)
He's throwing his fastball over 50% of the time, but only 45.5% of his pitches are in the zone, so he relies primarily on the chaser. Additionally, the Red Sox have had one of the best lineups in baseball recently, with the third-highest barrel rate on fastballs in the zone and the third-best wRC+ over the past 30 days.
I really like the Red Sox value as underdogs, but their bullpen is worn down so I’m going to target Boston at +107 through the first five innings.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (+107, via BetRivers)
Brad Cunningham's Guardians vs. Brewers predictions, picks and preview
Ben Lively vs. Collin Lea
Ben Lively is a perfectly average MLB starting pitcher. He has a projected ERA of 4.01 and is very effective with everything except his fastball. His sinker and sweeper both have xwOBAs below .290, but that's because he has very good ball location. Lively's Stuff+ numbers are terrible, but his location metrics are above average, so he should be effective in the zone.
Milwaukee has been very good at hitting recently, but they are around league average against right-handed sweepers and sinkers, so that could be a good matchup for Lively.
Collin Rea could be a big step back with a 3.72 ERA but a 5.05 xERA. Like Lively, Rea has abysmal Stuff+ numbers and will need to rely on keeping the ball in the zone and generating a lot of soft contact. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile and his barrel rate is in the 17th percentile, not a great combination. His primary pitches, the sinker and cutter, both have xwOBAs above .390, so the Guardians should be able to hit Rea hard.
These are two of the best relief corps in baseball, but the Guardians have the advantage on Sunday because the Brewers are a little tired — Devin Williams has pitched three of the past four days, and setup man Joel Payamps has pitched for the second straight day — while the Guardians' top three relievers are fully rested.
I project the Guardians as -106 favorites to win, so I like the value at +110.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+110 via Caesars)
Brad Cunningham's Dodgers vs. Cardinals predictions, picks and preview
Clayton Kershaw vs. Sonny Gray
Clayton Kershaw has only pitched 18 innings this season, but he's performing pretty well in the limited sample size (3.84 xERA). This is the best xERA of his career, but he's 36 years old and just returning from injury. He also doesn't have any velocity left in any of his pitches, with his fastball averaging just 90 mph. That being said, his slider and curveball are very effective, both with Stuff+ ratings over 100. He still has good control over those two pitches, which allows him to pitch effectively.
This will be a favorable match for Kershaw against a Cardinals lineup that just can't hit lefties at all. The Cardinals' wRC+ against lefties is 85, the fourth-worst in baseball this season. Not only that, but their wRC+ over the past 30 days is 19th, so Kershaw should be pretty effective on Sunday.
Sonny Gray is having a really good first season with St. Louis. His xERA is 3.68, but that's mainly due to an impressive 11.2 K/9 rate. Gray's improvement can be attributed to his sweeper and curveball, which have improved dramatically since last season. His sweeper has a Stuff+ rating of 152 this season, up from 122 last season, and his curveball has increased from 91 last year to 120. These two pitches are inviting a ton of strikeouts, with the sweeper's strikeout rate at a whopping 42%.
Both teams’ bullpens are above average in all pitching modeling metrics and will all be available on Sunday. I’m only projecting a 7.7 point margin for this matchup and like the sub-8.5 point value at -108.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-108 via BetRivers)
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About the Author
BJ Cunningham began betting during his college years and began his career at Action Network in January 2020 as a part-time writer, eventually going full-time. Previously working as a financial auditor for six years, he now specializes in European soccer, college football and baseball betting, with a focus on advanced data. BJ is a regular contributor to Action Network's podcasts and live betting shows, including Wondergoal, Payoff Pitch and Green Dot Daily.
Follow Brad Cunningham @BJCunningham22 on Twitter/X.
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