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A study published in the Lancet Public Health journal found that current climate policies could triple the number of heatstroke deaths in Europe by 2100, with most of them living in the southern part of the continent.
The findings highlight the need for strengthened policies to limit global warming in order to protect vulnerable communities and members of society from the effects of rising temperatures.
In recent years, Europe has experienced its hottest summers and highest mortality rates. Older people are at higher risk of dying from extreme temperatures, and the number of people reaching old age is expected to increase in the future.
Most previous studies projecting deaths from heat and cold in Europe have included little regional detail or have been detailed assessments of individual countries, mainly in Western Europe. This study is the first to provide a detailed analysis of current and future health risks from heat and cold across Europe and to look at projected impacts on national regions.
Overall, for a global warming of 3°C, the upper estimate based on current climate policies, heatstroke deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century. Under the same scenario, cold deaths, which are currently much higher than heat deaths, would remain high, decreasing slightly from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.
“Our analysis shows that cold-related and heatstroke mortality rates will change dramatically over the course of this century, with heatstroke mortality increasing across Europe and sharply increasing in some regions. At the same time, cold-related mortality rates will decrease slightly overall. Our study covers more than 1,000 regions in 30 countries, allowing us to identify hotspots where people will be most affected in the future,” said Dr Juan Carlos Siscal, from the European Commission Joint Research Centre.
The authors of the new study used data from 1,368 regions in 30 European countries to model the current disparity in mortality from high and low temperatures and estimate how the risk will change by 2100. A dataset generated by analysing the epidemiological and socio-economic characteristics of 854 European cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants was used to model regional mortality risks for different age groups (from 20 to 85+ years). Combining 11 different climate models, estimates of current and future temperature-related mortality were generated for four global warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C).
The study estimates that currently 407,538 people die each year across Europe due to heat or cold, 363,809 deaths due to cold and 43,729 deaths due to heat. Deaths due to cold are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States and lowest in parts of Central and Southern Europe, where mortality rates range from 25 to 300 per 100,000. Deaths due to heat range from 0.6 to 47 per 100,000, lowest in the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries and highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent.
A 3°C increase in temperature is predicted to increase temperature-related deaths by 13.5%, resulting in an extra 55,000 deaths each year due to increased deaths from heatstroke. Most of the deaths will be in people aged 85 and over.
Currently, there are roughly eight times as many deaths from cold as from heat in Europe (a ratio of 8.3:1). However, this ratio is projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century. With a 3°C increase in global warming, this ratio is projected to fall to 2.6:1 by 2100. Meanwhile, in a scenario based on 1.5°C warming, the Paris Agreement goal, this ratio falls to 6.7:1.
By 2100, under a 3°C warming scenario, cold deaths are projected to decrease little on average across Europe, ranging from 29 to 225 per 100,000 across European countries. Moderate decreases in cold deaths are projected in Eastern Europe, with small decreases also in parts of Germany, France, Italy and Portugal. However, increases in cold deaths are projected in Ireland (almost double), Norway and Sweden, all of which are projected to see large increases among people aged 85 and over.
A 3°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase the number of heatstroke deaths across Europe, with mortality rates rising sharply and tripling the average European mortality rate, reaching between 2 and 117 deaths per 100,000 across European countries. Hotspots that will be particularly affected by increasing warming and an ageing population include parts of Spain, Italy, Greece and France.
“As the climate gets warmer and the population ages, we expect to see a significant increase in deaths from heat, while deaths from cold will only decrease slightly in comparison,” said Dr David Garcia Leon, from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.
“Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from heat will increase dramatically over the next decade. It is crucial that more targeted policies are developed to protect these communities and members of society most at risk from extreme temperatures.”
The authors acknowledge some limitations: Their results are based on data from people living in urban areas (who generally experience higher levels of thermal stress, especially from heat, than people living in rural areas), so the estimates may be slightly inflated, and the results do not take into account effects on sex, ethnicity, or infants (another vulnerable group).
In a linked commentary, Dr Matteo Pinna Pintor of the Luxembourg Institute for Social and Economic Research (LISER) said: “…the increase in heat-related mortality is mainly due to increased exposure to heat, while an ageing and more susceptible population will significantly impede the reduction in cold-related mortality. Cold-related mortality is expected to increase in about half of the countries assessed, particularly in northern latitudes, but also in some parts of southern, central and eastern Europe.”
“These results reinforce previously expressed skepticism that cold-related mortality will unconditionally decrease substantially as temperate regions warm. This skepticism is also consistent with age-related vulnerability to cold and the persistence of excess mortality risk, especially from respiratory infections and associated complications, over a wide range of so-called mild cold temperatures (approximately 9-18°C). This implies that the mortality burden from exposure to cold in ageing societies will respond slowly to changes in the temperature distribution.”
Further information: Temperature-related mortality burden and projected changes in 1368 European regions: a modelling study, The Lancet Public Health (2024). DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00179-8
Source: Modeling study finds that with current climate policies, heatstroke deaths in Europe could triple by end of century (August 21, 2024) Retrieved August 21, 2024 from https://phys.org/news/2024-08-deaths-europe-triple-century-current.html
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