The San Diego Padres (73-58) will host the New York Mets (68-62) at Petco Park on Sunday in the final game of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET. Break down Mets vs. Padres odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and make your best betting predictions and forecasts with MLB experts.
Season series: Mets lead 5-1
The Mets won Thursday's opener 8-3, lost Game 2 of the series 7-0 on Friday before winning Game 3 on Saturday 7-1 as +126 underdogs. The over is 2-1 in the series. New York is 33-29 on the road this season but just 2-4 in their last six away games. The Mets have scored at least four runs in five of their last six games. They are 63-67 against the spread (ATS) this season.
The Padres have had an inconsistent record in recent weeks, going 7-5 in their last 12 games, 6-3 in their last nine home games, 36-32 at Petco Park this season and 68-63 ATS overall. San Diego won 2-of-3 at home against the Minnesota Twins from Monday-Wednesday but was soundly defeated in their lone away series against the Mets from June 14-16.
Mets vs Padres predicted starting lineup
LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Martin Perez
Quintana (6-9, 4.57 ERA) is making his 26th start and has a 1.32 WHIP, 93.5 BB/97.1 K/97 in 134 innings.
Last start: Tuesday's 9-5 home loss to the Baltimore Orioles, pitching five innings and giving up seven runs, eight hits, two walks and three strikeouts 2024 away record: 3-4 in 12 starts, 4.81 ERA (63 2/3 innings, 34 ERA), 1.35 WHIP, 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings 2024 vs. Padres: 1-0, one home start (June 15), pitching six innings, giving up a 1 ERA, two hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a 5-1 win Career record with Padres: 3-0 in eight appearances (six starts), 5.00 ERA (36 innings, 20 ERA), 1.33 WHIP, 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings
Perez (3-5, 4.67 ERA) will be making his 21st start and has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 106 innings with the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Last Appearance: Tuesday vs. Twins, 7-5 home win, no decision, 4 2/3 innings, 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts, Tuesday vs. Twins 2024 Home Record: 2-2 in 12 appearances, 3.88 ERA (62 2/3 innings, 27 earned runs), 1.42 WHIP, 7.8 strikeouts per 9 innings 2024 vs. Mets: 0-0, 1 road appearance (April 15), 6-3 loss vs. Pirates, 5 2/3 innings, 3 earned runs, 6 hits, 2 walks, 1 strikeout Career Record vs. Mets: 4-0 in 9 appearances (5 appearances), 3.15 ERA (40 innings, 14 earned runs), WHIP 1.10, 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings
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Mets vs Padres odds
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Money Line (ML): Mets -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Padres -116 (bet $116 to win $100) Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread: Mets -1.5 (+152) | Padres +1.5 (-184) Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mets vs Padres predictions and forecasts
prediction
Padres 6, Mets 3
Money Line
Bet on the Padres (-116).
The Mets have been doing well lately, but Quintana has not: He has allowed 16 runs in his past three starts and New York is 0-4 in his past four appearances.
The opposite can be said for Perez, who was acquired from Pittsburgh on July 30 to bolster the Padres' starting rotation. Perez has won each of his four starts for the Padres, allowing just seven runs in 23 innings. The team has won each of his last six appearances.
Given San Diego's home strength and pitching advantage, I'd bet on the Padres (-116).
Against run line/spread
Passed.
The Mets are a dominant team on the run line, so it's too much of a risk to play them here, especially considering three of their last seven games have ended by less than one run. The Padres are a weaker team on the run line, so it's too much of a risk.
Over/Under
Bet on 8.5 (-110) or more.
The O/U in this series is 2-1. The Mets have been solid, scoring at least 7 points in 2 of their last 3 games and at least 4 points in 10 of their last 12 games, so they should be good on Sunday. New York's O/U this season is 66-60-4.
The Padres are 71-58-2 O/U this season, have been the over in five of their last six games, have allowed at least seven runs in three of their last four games, and have scored at least four runs in four of their last six games. With both teams scoring consistently, bet on the over at 8.5 (-110).
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