The New York Yankees (78-55) and Washington Nationals (60-73) will complete a three-game series on Wednesday in Washington, D.C. The first pitch at Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET (Prime Video). Let's break down the Yankees vs. Nationals odds lines from BetMGM Sportsbook and get the best betting picks and predictions from MLB experts.
Season series: 1-1 draw
New York won the series opener, 5-2, before losing Game 2, 4-2. The Yankees are 5-2 in their past seven games.
The Nationals are 31-34 at home but 5-3 in their last eight games in Washington, DC.
Yankees vs Nationals predicted starting lineup
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. LHP Mackenzie Gore
Rodon (14-8, 4.16 ERA) is making his 27th start and has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 140 2/3 innings.
Last appearance: Friday's 7-0 win over the Colorado Rockies, 6 innings, no runs, 4 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts Career record against the Nationals: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 innings, 1 run), 6 hits, no runs, 1 strikeout
Gore (7-11, 4.51 ERA) will be making his 27th start and has posted a 1.56 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 131 2/3 innings.
Last appearance: Friday's 7-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, 6 innings, 1 run, 7 hits, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts Career record with the Yankees: 1 start, 0-1, 4.50 ERA (4 innings, 2 runs), 4 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
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Yankees vs Nationals odds
Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.
Moneyline: Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) Runline (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-130) | Nationals +1.5 (+105) Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Yankees vs Nationals predictions and forecasts
prediction
Nationals 6, Yankees 5
Money Line
The Nationals are coming off a three-game winning streak heading into the final game of the series. Peg Gore is generally underrated, batting a mere .367, and he's facing a Yankees offense that is putting up much better numbers against righties (.798 OPS) than lefties (.723 OPS).
Rodon's recent starting performances have been underwhelming, with his 2.67 ERA since July 22 not reflecting a decline in the quality of his batted ball. The Yankees lefty has a 5.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season (4.84 road ERA beyond 2022).
There is value in the home team in this matchup, so consider the NATIONALS (+165) a partial unit play, and at +170 you'll be in some serious action.
Against run line/spread
I respect New York's ability to win by five here. Plus, neither team plays many one-run games. It's worth getting a big positive return on the Nationals.
Please avoid.
Over/Under
When comparing projected vs actual runs, I'm leaning towards the over on every play for the Yankees. I'm slightly underestimating their offensive prowess and overestimating their prowess on the mound and defense. Given the recent bias against Rodon and the 97 degree weather in DC, I think the over 9 (-105) seems reasonable.
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