At FanDuel Research, we always strive to provide logical, sound reasoning based on data when providing analysis. We are always process-driven and strive to provide quality information.
Today I am flying the DGAF flag.
With just one week left of the NFL season, it's time for us to make some bold predictions for the upcoming season, and while data is important, we're willing to take a little risk for a moment.
Let’s dive right in and take a look at what our staff has their eyes on for 2024.
Bold Fantasy Football Predictions
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Bold prediction: Will Revis will pass for over 4,000 yards.
Consider this a “bonus”: 10 bold fantasy football predictions already made by me that you can save for later and all laugh about.
I think Will Revis and the Tennessee Titans passing attack are worth mentioning in fantasy as they could be a useful QB2 in superflex leagues. Brian Callahan's Cincinnati Bengals were the second-best passing attack team as of Week 18 last year, despite having Joe Burrow and/or Jake Browning at the helm all season.
Add in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and another back in Tony Pollard, a dynamic receiver alongside Tyjay Spears, and this team should be throwing a ton of passes, especially considering Tennessee's defense has one of the worst secondaries in the league and is projected to win just six or seven games, with Tennessee's total win odds at 6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Revis might inflict 30 passes by doing this, but that volume should produce results far greater than the average draft position of QB22 on most Sundays.
Kenyatta Strine, Senior Editor
Bold prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. will finish as a top 20 WR.
Rookie receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Neighbors have been garnering a lot of attention in the draft, and rightfully so, but Brian Thomas Jr. could quickly join them as an impactful first-year wide receiver.
Thomas was a first-round pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars essentially replacing Calvin Ridley, but remember that Ridley finished as the WR17th in half-PPR formats last season.
Thomas has received rave reviews in the preseason, was a standout at Louisiana State last year (1,177 receiving yards, 17 touchdowns) and checks a lot of boxes, including size and speed. He'll compete with Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis for targets, but should ultimately surpass those two as the Jaguars' top wide receiver and still be drafted outside the top 40 wide receivers.
By Austan Kass, Senior Editor
Bold prediction: Travis Kelce won't be a top-five tight end.
Travis Kelce's stellar postseason performance overshadowed a lackluster 2023 regular season by his lofty standards. He seemed to lose some of his big-play prowess, allowing just 65.6 receiving yards per game, his fewest since 2015. And there was only one other quality pass-catcher (Rushe Rice) competing for targets in the Kansas City Chiefs' offense.
Heading into 2024, Kansas City has added weapons at receiver (Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown), so Kelce may not be given as many opportunities as he was a year ago.
Add to that the fact that they have some depth at the top of the tight end division for the first time in a while with Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, Trey McBride and Dalton Kinkaid, and with those five plus a potential breakout Kyle Pitts, the bar for finishing as a top-five tight end should be higher.
Kelce also ranked as a half-PPR TE3 last year, but was only 2.2 points better than a TE5, so I expect his positional ranking to continue to drop this season.
Skylar Carlin, writer
Bold prediction: Caleb Williams will break rookie passing yards and touchdowns records.
There's no denying that Caleb Williams is entering his rookie season with the Chicago Bears in a great situation. First, the Bears have the 11th-best offensive line heading into next season, according to Pro Football Focus.
In addition to a vastly improved offensive line (PFF ranked them 19th at the end of the 2023 season), Chicago also boasts a talented, new offensive line. During the offseason, the Bears added Keenan Allen and rookies Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett to a passing attack that already featured DJ Moore and Cole Kmet.
The current rookie record for passing yards is 4,374, set by Andrew Luck in 2012. Only five rookie point guards have ever passed for 4,000 or more yards, but Williams has the skill set to become just the sixth.
Another record: Justin Herbert is the current record holder for a rookie with 31 touchdown passes in 2020. Herbert is the only rookie quarterback to throw 30-plus touchdown passes in his first year, but only four rookies have thrown 26-plus touchdown passes in their first season.
The Bears are 8.5 to win (the over is at -160 odds), and Williams is projected to be the captain of a breakout offensive line in 2024, where he'll be surrounded by enough weapons to break multiple rookie passing records.
Aidan Cotter, writer
Bold prediction: DK Metcalf will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns.
Last year, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill led the league in receiving touchdowns with 13. In 2022, the league-leading receiver has 14 touchdowns, up from 16 the year before.
DK Metcalf has scored 14 total touchdowns over the past two seasons and I believe he is a favorite to lead the league in receiving scores in 2024. Metcalf has scored double-digit touchdowns twice in his five-year career, both times with Russell Wilson as the quarterback.
Still, Geno Smith provided Metcalf with a 38.1% red zone target share (third in the NFL) and a 40.0% end zone target share (11th) last season, resulting in just eight touchdowns, but the Seattle Seahawks scored the seventh-lowest red zone touchdown rate in the NFL (48.2%).
That could change with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Last season, under Grubb, Washington's Huskies ranked ninth in college football in passing percentage (58.9%) and fourth in touchdown passes (38). That led to X-receiver Rome Odunze scoring 13 points in 15 games and Metcalf could cross the goal line early and often in a similar role.
Annie Nader, author
Bold prediction: Kyle Pitts will finish as TE1
Something must be happening for the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, who finished with 1,026 yards on 15.1 yards per catch in his rookie season. Kyle Pitts has just six scores in his pro career, but the 23-year-old is poised to explode with real quarterback play.
Pitts' 2022 season was hampered by injuries, and we saw what could happen to the tight end last year in a horrible offensive line led by Desmond Ridder, but with the addition of Kirk Cousins and new head coach Raheem Morris, the Atlanta Falcons should have a fantasy-relevant offensive line that can maximize Pitts' potential.
Austan Kass touched on the potential pitfalls for Kelce: LaPorta, Andrews, McBride and Kinkaid will all be competing for the coveted TE1 spot, but I see Pitts in that same tier: Currently, Pitts is the seventh tight end taken off fantasy draft boards.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Bold prediction: Rico Dowdle will rush for over 1,000 yards.
This might seem pretty crazy at first glance, especially with Dalvin Cook now in the Dallas Cowboys backfield.
Even before the Cook deal, FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy football projections had Rico Dowdle projected to rush for about 33.3 yards per game in 2024. Assuming Dowdle plays in 17 games, that would translate to about 566 rushing yards — not far from the 1,000-yard milestone.
But I believe Dowdle has flown under the radar.
Will he be one of the best rushers in the league? Probably not, but the Cowboys have had players rush for 1,000+ yards in eight of the last 10 seasons.
Dowdle was eye-poppingly efficient in 2023, ranking ninth in yards per touch average, per Player Profiler, while Tony Pollard was 37th in that category but still reached the 1,000-yard mark last season with Dallas.
According to ESPN, the Cowboys had the fourth-best run-blocking win rate in 2023, but their offensive line could be even better in 2024 with the addition of young players and fewer injury concerns. Dowdle has consistently been rated as the best running back in training camp. For example, John Machota of The Athletic said Dowdle “is surely the favorite to lead the team in rushing.”
Cook's addition adds some confusion to the situation, but he had a -1.21 RYOE/C last season and his 2.84 yards per touch were not far behind Dowdle's 3.92. Cook's addition may have more to do with Ezekiel Elliott than Dowdle, who is still poised for a big year as the team's most efficient runner on the ground.
Jim Sannes, Editor in Chief
Bold prediction: Jonathan Taylor will record over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
One of the cruellest parts of Anthony Richardson's injury last year was that it denied him the opportunity to play alongside Jonathan Taylor, who made his debut in Week 5 when Richardson suffered a season-ending injury.
This year I am ready to see a feast for two.
Taylor was good last year when healthy, averaging a 0.3 RYOE/C and 13.6% of his runs were 10+ yards, better than the 9.9% of all backs who ran at least 100 times. Zack Moss was also above average, showing just how good Shane Steichen's system is.
Going forward, we could see Taylor playing alongside Richardson, who will likely draw defenders' attention with his feet, which should open up more rushing lanes for Taylor.
The big question mark is pass catching. While both Taylor and Moss had some pass catching experience last year, it was primarily via Gardner Minshew.
It's encouraging that Richardson targeted running back Deion Jackson six times in Week 1, the first of two games he played a full game, so JT should see at least some production in all facets of the game.
FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections have Taylor projected to gain 1,674.88 scrimmage yards through 17 games, so asking him to reach 2,000 yards seems like a stretch, but with a 2,171-yard season in 2021, Taylor has already proven that this is a realistic goal.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? Get a guaranteed $200 bonus bet after you place your first bet of $5 or more. See full terms and conditions here. Check out FanDuel Sportsbook Promos for more offers today.
Which players do you think have the potential to excel in 2024? Check out the latest NFL player props from FanDuel Sportsbook to see where you can find value in the market.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The author listed above is an employee of FanDuel and is not licensed to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. Any advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Following the author's advice cannot guarantee success. Participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets should be done at your own discretion.
