Caleb Williams and the Bears are favored by 4.5 points over the Titans in the Week 1 NFL odds. However, no quarterback drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in the past 20 years has won his first career NFL start (0-14-1). You have to go all the way back to David Carr in 2002 to find the last top-drafted quarterback to win in his league debut. With Williams battling the Titans defense and history, should you trust Tennessee with your Week 1 NFL pick? Tennessee has added several new faces, including Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Rujarius Snead, and Jamal Adams. Facing a debuting No. 1 overall pick also provides extra motivation for opposing defenses, which undoubtedly impacts their 0-14-1 record when evaluating the latest NFL spreads. Full Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks right now.
The model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and has returned over $7,000 in profits on $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since inception. The model has an astounding 185-129 record on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season and going into Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The model has also recorded 39-21 on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for straight-up NFL picks four of the last six years and beat over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that time, placing it pretty high on anyone who follows it.
Now, they've looked at the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line and over/under and have finalized their picks for all NFL matchups. Click here to see all their picks.
Top NFL Week 1 Predictions
One of the model's most likely NFL predictions for Week 1 is the Chargers (-3.5) covering the spread at home against the Raiders. Las Vegas had the league's worst offense last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in six major categories: points, yards, passing attack, running attack, third-down conversions and red-zone scoring. Davante Adams posted his worst numbers since 2019, and while some may blame that on the Raiders' quarterback situation, Adams' career-high eight drops are his own fault.
Then the team lost their 2022 rushing king Josh Jacobs, whose replacement will likely be Zamir White, who has only scored one touchdown in his third year in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers improved at the most important position, head coaching, with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh. Not only did Harbaugh just win a college championship, but his .695 winning percentage as an NFL coach is the fifth-highest in league history (minimum 50 games). The model projects LA to win by at least a touchdown and cover a 3.5-point advantage nearly 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another NFL prediction this week is for the Bills (-6) to beat the Cardinals at home. Josh Allen simply takes his game to another level in front of the Bills Mafia. He had 25 touchdowns to eight turnovers at home last season and 19 touchdowns to 14 turnovers on the road. His leg strength will also be a big asset in this game, as the Cardinals allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks last season.
Kyler Murray's legs could also cause problems for the Bills, but his arm could be ineffective against Buffalo's pass defense. The Bills allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns (18) in 2023, but the third-most interceptions (18). They were one of only three teams that did not allow more passing touchdowns than interceptions, and the Bills also ranked fourth in the league in quarterback getting (54 sacks). With a big advantage in Buffalo's defense, the Bills (-6.5) cover in almost 70% of the simulations. See here for other teams to pick.
How to make your NFL Week 1 picks
The model also predicted who will win and cover every other game on the NFL's Week 1 schedule, revealing four teams that have a 70% or higher chance of winning. Full predictions for every game are available exclusively at SportsLine.
So which teams should you pick in the NFL with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to find out which teams will win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that's generated over $7,000 in profits.
Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines and spreads
Get your Week 1 NFL predictions at SportsLine
Thursday, September 5
Ravens vs. Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
Friday, September 6
Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) — Brazil
Sunday, September 8
Steelers vs. Falcons (-3, 40.5)
Cardinals vs Bills (-6, 48)
Titans vs Bears (-4.5, 45)
Patriots vs Bengals (-9.5, 40.5)
Texans vs Colts (+2.5, 48.5)
Jaguars vs Dolphins (-3, 49.5)
Panthers vs Saints (-4, 40)
Vikings vs Giants (+1, 41.5)
Raiders vs. Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)
Broncos vs. Seahawks (-5.5, 42)
Cowboys vs Browns (-2.5, 42.5)
Commanders vs Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)
Rams vs Lions (-3.5, 51)
Monday, September 9
Jets vs. 49ers (-3.5, 44)
