The preseason is finally over. It's time for the big games. Week 1 has some great matchups, including the Chiefs vs Ravens. The Browns vs Cowboys game will also be a highlight.
Each week of the NFL season, I will share my prediction for each game and rank them for those who play a format that requires it. Games will be categorized as sure, somewhat confident, and even. The numbers next to the games indicate my confidence level, counting down to my least confident prediction. Winning predictions are in italics.
Some weeks may have a subcategory called “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before kickoff on Thursday Night Football. There may still be injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If so, we'll set those games aside and make a suggestion on where they should be placed with players in or out. Now, let's take a look at our Week 1 picks.
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Week 1 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Rock
The numbers displayed next to the game indicate my confidence level, counting down to my least confident choice — the higher the number, the better. Winning choices are displayed in italics.
16 – Cincinnati vs New England 15 – Buffalo vs Arizona 14 – Detroit vs Los Angeles Rams
With the addition of Drake Maye, the Patriots have reason to be excited about the future, but with a bad offensive line, a lack of wide receiver talent and the recent trade away of a quality defender in Matthew Judon, the Patriots will be a target to attack in this type of pool all season long.
The Cardinals should be in a better situation this season with a healthy Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. taking over as the top wide receiver, but they still have plenty of holes on the defensive end after allowing the second-most points in the league last season. The team to watch here is the Bills, who went 7-2 at home last season.
The Lions are also a great home team, going 6-2 in Detroit last year. Their key players are back this season and will be even better if Jameson Williams lives up to expectations. The Rams should also have a strong offensive line, but Puka Nacua has been battling a knee injury all preseason. He is expected to play in Week 1, but a slow start could give the Rams a hard time keeping up with the Lions' offensive line.
Semi-confident picks for Week 1 Pick 'Em Pools
13 – Miami vs. Jaguars
The Dolphins are the better team so they should win this game handily. The only reason I didn't put this in the sure thing section is because you never know when Tua Tagovailoa might have a breakdown. He finished last season without throwing one or any touchdown passes in five of his final seven games.
Touchdown from TUA to Tyreek Hill
Miami desperately needed that.pic.twitter.com/89ZJaaL1Vj
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 14, 2024
The Jaguars made some changes at wide receiver, acquiring Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., but losing Calvin Ridley Jr. to the Titans. Trevor Lawrence himself was a disappointment, throwing one or no touchdown passes in 10 of 16 games.
12 – New Orleans vs Carolina
Beating the Saints at home will be a tough task. The Panthers were 0-9 on the road last year and are still in the early stages of a rebuild. I expect the Saints to win this game, but with Derek Carr at quarterback I'm not sure we can be sure of that.
11 – Seattle vs Denver
The Seahawks are the more established team in this game. They return all of their key offensive players, and Jackson Smith-Njiba's development could help them do even more offensively. The Broncos will start rookie Bo Nix right away, and it would be a stretch to expect him to win his first game on the road in Seattle.
10 – San Francisco vs. New York Jets
This should be a matchup between two talented teams with a shot at a deep playoff spot. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers back and a healthy Breece Hall to lead the backfield. I expect the 49ers to win at home because they are one of the most complete teams in football. But with Christian McCaffrey's calf injury and Brandon Aiyuk's uncertainty, it's not a sure thing.
9 – New York Giants vs Minnesota
Daniel Jones vs. Sam Darnold is a battle between two bad quarterbacks. Jones is more confident because he can get yards with his feet at home. The Giants were terrible last year, too, going 4-4 at home. Darnold has never thrown for more than 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns in a season. Expect the Giants defense to carry them to victory.
Daniel Jones ➡️ Malik Neighbors Touchdown!! #Giants pic.twitter.com/CYT1YqkQ0k
— The Giant Take Podcast (@TheGiantTakePod) August 1, 2024
8 – Chicago vs. Tennessee
The Titans are in a new era after Derrick Henry left for the Ravens. The addition of Will Revis, who threw multiple touchdown passes in two of nine games last year, should see the Titans throw the ball more. The Bears have a deep offensive line, a better pass rush with Montez Sweat playing a full season, and the advantage of playing at home.
One reason the Bears are a sure bet is that they'll be starting rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. As the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, there will be a lot of pressure on him to start the season strong, but I don't think he'll have any trouble meeting expectations.
NFL Week 1 Pick 'Em Toss-Up
7 – Houston vs. Indianapolis
The Texans are the better team of the two, and they got even stronger with the addition of Stefon Diggs during the offseason. But it remains to be seen what the Colts' limitations are with Anthony Richardson under center. He played only four games in his rookie season due to injury. Still, he and Jonathan Taylor could be a dangerous duo given his rushing ability. There are other weeks where I'd be more confident picking the Texans.
6 – Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Surprisingly, the Chiefs were just 5-4 at home last year. The Ravens were 7-1 on the road. Still, I think the Chiefs will win this one. Ruchy Rice and Xavier Worthy are a dangerous wide receiver duo, and Isaiah Pacheco is emerging as one of the best running backs in the league. The Ravens don't have many holes on their roster, but when in doubt, bet on the home team.
5 – Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
There is no home team in this game, as it will be played in Brazil. The Eagles were terrible late in the game, but they have plenty of weapons and the addition of Saquon Barkley makes them even more dangerous on offense. The Packers also got a big boost at running back with the signing of Josh Jacobs. One of these two teams can win the NFC.
4 – Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
Both the Falcons and Steelers will have new quarterbacks as starters in Week 1. The Falcons will likely go with Kirk Cousins. The Steelers are likely to go with Russell Wilson, but Justin Fields is in the mix. Neither Wilson nor Fields are great options, and Cousins is still coming off a torn Achilles.
The Falcons have more weapons on the offensive line and I have more faith in Cousins than Wilson or Fields, but it's hard to ignore Mike Tomlin when it comes to keeping the Steelers competitive. I'm betting on the home team, but this could be a close game.
3 – Las Vegas vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may have the worst home-field advantage in football, going just 2-7 at home last season and having more opposing fans in their stadium than their own. The Raiders would be better off with Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback, but it's hard to have much confidence in either team.
2 – Cleveland vs. Dallas
The Cowboys ended a big question mark on Monday when they signed CeeDee Lamb to a lucrative contract extension. They'll need Lamb to help them against the Browns, who allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league last season. I'm still betting on the home team, but both teams are loaded with talent. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them wins.
BREAKING: The Cowboys and CeeDee Lamb have agreed to a record-breaking four-year, $136 million contract that makes Lamb the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, sources said. Adam Schefter.
The contract includes a $38 million signing-on bonus, the largest ever paid to a wide receiver. pic.twitter.com/yPYBROcc7T
— ESPN (@espn) August 26, 2024
1 – Tampa Bay vs. Washington
The Commanders should be a more interesting team this season with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. One of their big issues is the question marks at wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin. The Buccaneers surprised many by winning the NFC South last year, but with a 9-8 record it was an unconvincing win.
It's a tough ask for Daniels to win in his first game on the road, but the Buccaneers are far from dominant. For me, this is the biggest 50-50 split of the week and a game to avoid in my predictions.
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