This Friday we resume the final week of the preseason with my three predicted NFL matchups.
The series kicks off early with the Jaguars vs. Falcons and Dolphins vs. Buccaneers matches, before concluding with the Raiders vs. 49ers at 10pm ET.
Make sure to join the Action Discord as that's where we discuss what I'm looking for and timing for official plays I post on the Action app.
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Jaguars vs. Falcons: Jacksonville has the betting edge
Tonight's preseason game will feature two teams with very different approaches. The Jaguars are treating this as a true dress rehearsal, with Trevor Lawrence and the starters expected to play most of the first half. If Doug Pederson goes off the starters, Mac Jones will likely take over for the Jaguars and likely play the remainder of the game. The team recently signed EJ Perry, but he appears to be more of an emergency option and will likely only play in the fourth quarter, if at all.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are resting their starters, including rookie backup quarterback Michael Pennis Jr. It may seem surprising that Raheem Morris is content to give a rookie quarterback who isn't expected to play much this season unless Kirk Cousins is injured just 16 dropbacks in Week 1. This approach suggests that Morris isn't using the preseason to give his first- and second-team players a chance to work.
Instead, Taylor Heinicke will start and play most of the first half before giving way to UDFA John Paddock, who struggled in the preseason and is one of the lowest rated QBs on my chart this week.
The Jaguars are naturally heavy favorites at -7.5, with a -6.5 line for the first half suggesting the majority of their advantage will come in the first half. While this is mostly true, I think the Jaguars will hold a big advantage in the second half when Mac Jones faces off against John Paddock. Though he struggled his first three seasons, Jones is an above-average (preseason) QB who will get significant playing time in the second half. He is completing 73% of his passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt, making him much more polished than Paddock, who was one of the weakest QBs in the preseason.
Live Betting Edge: Jaguars 2H ML
Perspective: I'm going to be rooting for the Jaguars in the second half, especially since the market may be overlooking the fact that the Jaguars will still have a huge advantage in the second half. This could happen even after Trevor Lawrence leaves the game. That's why it's important to join me on Discord to hear my live thoughts and follow me on the app to get notified when I make a play.
Dolphins vs Buccaneers: Miami loses without Tua
It's unclear if Tua Tagovailoa will start tonight against the Dolphins. Mike McDaniel has said he wants to give the starters minutes, but Tagovailoa won't be in the starting lineup. That means Skylar Thompson and Mike White will each play half the time. It doesn't really matter which QB starts, as I rate them both as low-end backups to high-end QB3s.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said he wants his starters to play tonight, but he didn't say how long they'll play. My guess is that Baker Mayfield and the starting offense will play one to three drives. If they score a touchdown on the first drive, that could be it. As a result, the offense will be pretty aggressive and try to score quickly and finish the preseason strong. Baker Mayfield has always performed well in the preseason, and I expect him to play well again tonight. After Mayfield is done, Kyle Trask will likely finish the first half. Trask has played well in the preseason and can be evaluated as a mid-range backup. He should be able to maintain the Buccaneers' advantage over Skylar Thompson or Mike White.
The Dolphins face an unusual situation in which nearly all of their running backs are expected to miss tonight due to rest or injury. They recently signed Anthony McFarland, but he only joined the team a few days ago, so he may be forced to take nearly every snap tonight. McFarland may not fully understand the playbook, which could affect his effectiveness as a runner and cause him to miss pass-blocking assignments in key moments. Additionally, WR Ja'Quan Burton may be used in the backfield as a running back again this week. This unusual situation could work to the Buccaneers' advantage in tonight's matchup.
Betting corners: Buccaneers 1H -1.5 (-120 on FanDuel)
Play: Here I am predicting the Buccaneers to win the first half at -1.5. I believe their biggest advantage comes in the first half and it is safe to bet on them in this key number. 3 is the win rating. If it is announced that Tua will not play tonight, this line could go up to 3 (again, this is just my guess).
Raiders vs 49ers: Notable live betting angles
Kyle Shanahan has said he wants to use his starters tonight, so Brock Purdy and the first-team offensive line will likely play most of the first quarter and possibly into the second. Purdy will be looking to bounce back from a poor performance last week and finish off the preseason strong. Once Purdy is out, Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Allen will split the remaining snaps, with rookie Tanner Mordecai potentially closing out the game in the fourth quarter.
For their part, the Raiders settled the QB battle last week with Gardner Minshew earning the starting spot in Week 1. Minshew will be rested tonight along with backup Aidan O'Connell, meaning Carter Bradley will start with Nathan Peterman taking over in the second half.
The 49ers are -8.5 for this game and -7 in the first half, and obviously the majority of their advantage is expected to come in the first half. This is mostly true, but it's worth noting that both Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Allen have been good throughout the preseason. I think the market is overlooking the fact that the 49ers still hold a significant advantage after Brock Purdy and the starters are pulled. I might back the 49ers, especially if the market overcorrects. Either way, it's worth considering the 49ers in the second quarter or second half.
Corner Live Betting Look: 49ers
If the market over-corrects (or I think it has over-corrected), consider backing the 49ers after Brock Purdy leaves the game.
About the Author
Sean Koerner heads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports predictions and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he is a top expert in the field and has been ranked #1 in FantasyPros accuracy rankings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts a popular podcast and can make predictions on any sport, making him the go-to source for accurate sports predictions.
Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.
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