Tonight, two games will be played on the East Coast, giving us our first real taste of the NFL preseason.
It's still preseason, but football is starting and we're excited. Tonight, the Lions take on the Giants after a tough week of practice, and then in New England, Patriots fans will get their first look at Drake Maye in action against the Panthers.
Here's how I'm going to bet on tonight's game, along with a full QB preview and NFL predictions.
Sean Koerner Predicts NFL Today
Lions vs. Giants: Biggest advantage comes in the second half
The Lions and Giants will hold two joint practices this week (a tumultuous one that resulted in $200,000 fines for both teams) and it's unlikely that either team will have key players available, and coaches have favored joint practices over preseason games to give starters a chance to work on their game.
Both teams will be scrutinizing the QB competition to see who will be the backup when the season begins, so I suspect we'll see about half of the four active QBs tonight.
First Half: Nate Sudfeld (Lions) vs. Drew Lock (Giants)
Nate Sudfeld has had a strong training camp and looks likely to open the season as Jared Goff's backup unless Hendon Hooker performs well in his first NFL preseason game of the season (more on that later).
Sudfeld is unlikely to have top pass catchers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta at his disposal, but the Lions will be evaluating the WR3 competition between Daurice Fountain, Antoine Green and Donovan Peoples-Jones. I expect Detroit to be pass-heavy with a number of key battles in the passing game. I expect to see rookie two-way player Sione Vaki get some touches at running back, but the competition for the No. 3 RB isn't all that pressing for Detroit.
Sudfeld has dropped back 100 times over the past three preseasons, but has completed 58% of his passes and has an interception rate of 4.2%, which is below average overall. He's a true pocket passer with no scrambling. I would project him as a bottom-two to top-three player in the preseason.
Drew Lock will likely be the Giants' starting pitcher as the likely backup to Daniel Jones. He could put pressure on Jones to perform well this season. If Jones struggles this season, Lock could take over for him at some point.
Lock likely won't have rookie phenom Malik Neighbors available tonight, but he should have access to a trio of veteran receivers in Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins and Allen Robinson, all of whom were starters at some point in their careers and should have good chemistry with Lock in training camp.
Lock has been impressive in the past three preseason games, completing 66.4% of his passes with a 7.4% touchdown rate, 8.45 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 104.3 on 133 dropbacks. He primarily plays pocket, but has the ability to scramble when necessary, which makes him even more valuable in the preseason.
Favourites: Giants. New York is favoured by 2.5 points at the half, which is about right. I hesitate to use this number because both teams will likely play with their second units in the first half. The most likely outcome at the half is a tie or the Giants winning by a field goal.
If word gets out that Neighbors will have a drive or two at the start of the game, that could seal the Giants' first quarter.
Second Half: Hendon Hooker (Lions) vs. Tommy DeVito (Giants)
Hendon Hooker had the entire second half to himself and may be replaced in the second quarter by Nate Sudfeld, and the Lions want to give Hooker as many opportunities as possible after he redshirted his freshman season after suffering a torn ACL during his final season at Tennessee.
Hooker would be a hot prospect, as he was considered a first-round draft pick before tearing his ACL, but the team was unclear on how he would fit into the NFL, especially with Tennessee's rather unconventional offensive line. The concern was that he might take a little longer to adjust to NFL concepts.
The Lions' WR3 battle could continue into the second half, but Hooker could have veterans like Maurice Alexander and Tom Kennedy who have both performed pretty well in the preseason the past few seasons. Hooker also has solid rushing talent and I think he'll rely on it at times, but as I always say, it's much more valuable in the preseason.
Tommy DeVito was one of the most surprising stories of 2023 as he led the Giants to a 3-3 record as an undrafted rookie after Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury. For those of us who have been watching the preseason closely, this isn't too surprising as he performed pretty well last preseason, completing 67% of his passes and averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. However, his 3.1% interception rate was a bit unlucky considering he only had a 1.2% turnover rate (Pro Football Focus). That's a very good number. DeVito also scrambles on 10% of his dropbacks and has the rushing power to beat the 3rd-string talent around him in the second half.
Advantage: Even. I think the second half will be an even matchup, but a 16.5 total might reveal the key number of 17. I would love to see the second half go over 16.5. This number is typically used in Hall of Fame games or preseason games when we see a 3rd or 4th QB play. Hooker and DeVito are both second class QBs and both have rushing potential, so I think they will likely score 17+ points in the first half they play.
You should also keep an eye on the weather, as there is a chance of rain during this match, and waiting to potentially bet on the later stages will give you enough time to incorporate a more accurate weather forecast.
Lean: Over 2H
Panthers vs. Patriots: Corner first quarter bets
Tonight's match will see both teams take very different approaches.
The Panthers are expected to rest most of their starters, including Bryce Young, and are also not expected to play high-ranking 2024 draft picks Xavier Leggett and Johnathan Brooks, who are both not healthy enough to play.
With backup quarterback Andy Dalton also out with a quad injury, the Panthers will start undrafted free agent Jack Plummer tonight, who they expect could play into the third quarter.
Head coach Dave Canales has praised Plummer in practice, and he could surprise us with a strong performance tonight, but that's what he's saying: He's surrounded by second- and third-string players and isn't in a good position to be successful in his NFL debut.
Jake Luton was recently signed to the camp roster, mainly due to his experience under Coach Canales, but he probably isn't familiar enough with the playbook to play more than a quarter. I expect he'll come in late in the third quarter and finish out the game.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are expected to use their starters tonight. It's unclear how long, but I'm guessing they could be in for most or all of the first quarter. New England will also have four active QBs tonight: Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Joe Milton and Bailey Zappe. I'm guessing each will play about a quarter, in the order I listed them.
Favourites: Patriots. New England is the overwhelming favourite going into tonight's matchup, being a 6.5-point favorite.
Pick: Patriots -0.5 1Q +102 (DraftKings)
The Patriots will have the biggest advantage in the first quarter due to the QB duel between Brissett and Plummer. More importantly, it will be Brissett and the rest of the first-team offensive line and the Patriots' first-team defense versus Plummer and the Panthers' second-team offensive line. In this situation, the team with the starting unit has an even greater advantage.
So while the first quarter is usually a very low scoring one, and -0.5 coming up suggests a pretty big advantage, in this case I think it's completely justified.
With their starting offense, the Patriots will be looking to be very aggressive and get an early lead. The Panthers' offense is also unlikely to go for one or two long drives to score or waste time, both of which they want to avoid, so I think the Patriots have time to drive into Carolina territory twice to clear this number.
In-game strategy: It will be interesting to see how the market approaches this matchup live.
The Patriots should continue to have an advantage in the second and third quarters, but even more so when Zappe and Luton potentially face off in the fourth quarter. Zappe will be competing for a roster spot, but he's been good enough in his career to be able to lead a scoring drive or two late in games.
I plan on betting on the Patriots when I see this QB showdown take place on the field. As always, a lot can change during the game. I'll be discussing the game on the Action Network Discord and posting live bets I make on the Action App.
