The number of rookies who never have a real breakout season seems to grow every year. The latest example would be Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud. Or maybe Texans' Will Anderson Jr. Or Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jameel Gibbs. Or Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Oh, and maybe Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua.
You get the gist, right?
The 2023 rookies have certainly been impressive, but we haven't heard everything yet from the entire group. With that in mind, here's a look at a few second-year players who could be breakout contenders in 2024 (if healthy).
Quarterback
Will Revis, Tennessee Titans (Round 2, No. 33)
Frankly, there are a few people arguing here. Aidan O'Connell is competing with Gardner Minshew II for the position in Las Vegas. If he wins the position, don't be surprised if he exceeds expectations (again). O'Connell was one of the most underrated prospects in the 2023 class. I'm not giving up on Bryce Young either, and I'm looking forward to seeing Anthony Richardson for more than a month.
But the breakout pick is Revis. He was heavily under-rated coming out of Kentucky in 2022 due to a toe injury, but his downfield accuracy (and confidence) improved significantly in 2021, something we saw at Tennessee last season.
In Revis' nine games as a starter, he completed 21.5 percent of his passes for 20 yards or more, just slightly better than Stroud's (20.5 for the season). Being consistent and accurate at all levels of the field is the next step for Revis, and that can be achieved with a healthier workforce.
Running back
Tyjay Spears, Tennessee Titans (3rd round, 81st pick)
Gibbs, Robinson and Devon Achain all had impressive rookie seasons, and Baltimore's Keaton Mitchell (now on the PUP list) would have joined them if not for a serious ACL injury.
Spears also had a bit part, rushing 100 times for 453 yards. He had 52 catches for 385 yards and another score, which tied him with Gibbs for second among rookies (behind Robinson). You can't replace Derrick Henry with just one person, but even if Spears gets some help from Tony Pollard, don't be surprised if he becomes Nashville's new star by the end of the season.
Also keep an eye on Chicago's Roshon Johnson and Seattle's Zach Charbonnet.
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Wide Receiver
Tank Dell, Houston Texans (3rd round, 69th pick)
Jaden Reed, Green Bay Packers (2nd round, No. 50)
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (3rd round, 79th pick)
A fractured fibula limited Dell to just 11 games last season, but it would be unfair to include him here. The former Houston Cougars dynamo finished last season with 2.22 yards per route, third among rookies behind Nacua and Lachie Rice. Despite his small size (5'8, 165 pounds), Dell is a force to be reckoned with underneath and better through the air than people think (six contested catches last year).
Reed (64 catches, 793 yards, eight touchdowns) was one of the biggest unheralded contributors to Jordan Love's breakout season, and Downs, another diminutive speedster, was arguably Richardson's favorite target in Indianapolis before he was injured. (Downs is likely to miss the start of the regular season with a high-ankle sprain.) And don't be surprised if Seattle's Jackson Smith-Njiba (who missed a lot of time in college) steps up this season and reminds people who he is in the West.
Nacua, Rice, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison make for an outstanding WR class on their own.
Tight End
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, No. 42)
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (3rd round, 78th pick)
The 2023 tight end class is expected to be historic, and it's hard to deny their potential. LaPorta set the rookie tight end receptions record, and Bills rookie Dalton Kinkaid would have been the dominant first-year tight end in any season other than 2023.
But oddly enough, the top two breakout candidates for 2024 play on the same team.
Musgrave is a favorite to win the championship after recording 34 catches for 352 yards and one touchdown in an injury-shortened, 11-game season. Not to be outdone, classmate and teammate Kraft played a full season and had three fewer catches, three more yards and one more touchdown than Musgrave.
Both are great athletes, but Musgrave in particular is 6-foot-6, weighs 250 pounds and boasted a 4.4-second speed in college.
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Attacking Line
Sidi Sow, New England Patriots (fourth round, 117th pick)
Darnell Wright, Chicago Bears (1st round, 10th pick)
Joe Tippmann, New York Jets (Round 2, No. 43)
Matthew Bergeron, Atlanta Falcons (2nd round, 38th pick)
Peter Skoronski, Tennessee Titans (1st round, 11th pick)
Seau is an incredibly versatile and athletic big man and was one of my favorite picks on Day 3 of the 2023 draft. At 6'4 and 325 pounds, he played left guard/tackle at Eastern Michigan before moving to right guard as a rookie. Though he wasn't always stellar, Seau did have flashes of flashes in his 13 starts.
Tippman (who had snapping issues early in camp) and Wright both showed potential in the run game last season and should continue to improve, while Bergeron is coming off his first full year of starting time at right guard. One of the most athletic linemen in the 2023 class, Bergeron played right/left tackle exclusively in college and could take a big leap as part of a very solid Atlanta front.
A standout tackle in college, Skoronski was hampered by an early season injury that prevented him from moving inside to guard, but if he can stay healthy, the Titans' offensive line, which also acquired Alabama OT JC Latham in this year's draft, could surprise people.
Defensive Line
Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers (2nd round, 54th pick)
Keanu Benton, Pittsburgh Steelers (2nd round, 49th pick)
Kariya Kansi, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st round, 19th pick)
Carl Brooks, Green Bay Packers (Sixth round, No. 179)
Like Dell, it might be a bit unfair to include Tuipulotu here. He had a really good rookie season (as did several other rookie linemen, including Anderson, Jalen Carter, Byron Young and Coby Turner). But the speedy, smart 6'3, 260-pound player will be paired with Jesse Minter on a team that comes out of the Ravens' system. Expect the Chargers to put more pressure on him and make him more productive than he's ever been before. He could be the star of that defense.
Benton will likely lose weight and receive more training coming off a very talented rookie year, and his combination of punching power and foot speed would make him a serious, versatile upgrade on the inside for the Steelers.
If Cansey can stay healthy for a full season and strengthen his run discipline next to Vita Vea, Tampa Bay's interior could be one of the best in the NFL.
Another Day 3 contender in 2023, Brooks made the most of a rotational role at multiple positions for Green Bay (four sacks, 25 pressures in just 256 reps; let's not forget Lucas Van Ness) and, like Benton, has a scary amount of athletic versatility for a slower lineman. Arizona edge BJ Ojulari was also on this list until he went down with a knee injury early in training camp, which was a big blow for the promising youngster.
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Linebacker
Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (1st round, 18th pick)
Cervosia Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5th round, 153rd pick)
Otis Reese IV, Tennessee Titans (UDFA)
Campbell's rookie season was complicated by Detroit asking him to get out of the stack and move into an edge role for a short period of time, but he played so well in the second half and into the playoffs that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get the green dot as a defensive play-caller even with veteran LB Alex Anzalone on the roster.
Dennis didn't play much last season, but the 2023 fifth-round pick will get more practice with Devin White, who is now in Philadelphia. Dennis was a long, explosive player at Pittsburgh and a nuisance on the inside (12 TFL, seven sacks as a senior) and has the type of combination of effort and instincts that Todd Bowles covets.
The best rookie linebacker for 2023 was the Vikings' undrafted free agent Ivan Pace Jr. But Reese, also a UDFA, showed real promise and serious speed in a few games late last season, and he could be the answer on the inside for the Titans this season.
Defensive Back
Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (Round 1, No. 17)
Brian Branch, Detroit Lions (2nd round, 45th pick)
Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals (3rd round, No. 95)
Tyriq Stevenson, Chicago Bears (Round 2, No. 56)
Gonzalez was impressive through the first month of last season before a shoulder injury ended his season. As the most athletic cornerback in the Class of 23 (4.38-second 40-yard dash, 41-inch vertical leap, 32-inch arm length), Gonzalez could be an early bright spot for Jerrod Mayo.
Branch is another player who could have been better on this list, but he missed several games last season with an injury. More importantly, Detroit plans to expand Branch's role even further in 2024, and the Lions believe he's a future Pro Bowl player. Cincinnati could say the same about Battle, a safety out of Alabama who could be a perennial star in the future.
Other contenders include Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Izien, but Stevenson had a great season last year with Chicago and should improve as a standout opposite Jaylon Johnson.
(Top photo of Will Revis and Keanu Benton, left: Matthew Maxey, Marc Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
