Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season! Football is back and the options are endless. With so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets and future bets, it can be hard to decide what to do. But Survivor Pools is the oldest and simplest league. You just pick a team and let them win, but you can't pick them again.
Every week of the season, we'll be bringing you Survivor Pool advice on which teams NFL teams should target and which ones to avoid. Survivor League strategy is a key component to winning your pool, and this article will help you navigate the 2024 NFL season. With a preview of Week 1, you're set to get through one of the toughest weeks yet.
In Week 1, we can see which teams are strong, but it's all just a thought, and there's no evidence to back up who's thinking what. Star players don't play much in the preseason, so it's hard to tell who's strong and who's weak. Before we jump into our predictions for the opening week of the NFL season, let's get some boilerplate out of the way.
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Week 1 estimated point totals, point spreads and over/under totals
Before we jump into the picks for Week 1, it's helpful to have an overview of the slate, including the implied point totals, point spreads and over/under totals from the betting markets. For this week only, these totals will come from RotoCurve, but after Week 1, the implied totals will come from FantasyLabs each week.
So let’s take a look at our recommendations for choosing which survivor pools to target and which to avoid in week one.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Aim for in Week 1
Cincinnati Bengals (-9) vs. NE
The Bengals are nine-point favorites over the New England Patriots, the NFL's worst football team according to the odds, and are the heavy favorites heading into Week 1. The Bengals' projected points total (25.5) is the fourth-highest of any team, and that total is based on the certainty that Ja'Marr Chase will be back on the field in uniform for the Week 1 opener.
I believe the Bengals can beat New England at home even without Chase. The Patriots have yet to decide whether to start Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye at quarterback in Week 1, but the Bengals have a huge advantage in scoring no matter who they choose.
Jerrod Mayo, Greg Hillon Jacoby Brissett vs. Drake Maye: pic.twitter.com/voKRpT2Dj2
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) August 26, 2024
The Bengals are likely in the top two most popular teams coming out of Week 1, which is the season with the most open questions about the team. The public (and oddsmakers) are targeting this game as the biggest bet, so if you're looking to get the season off to a strong start, know that when you pick the Bengals, you're also picking a lot of other teams on your side.
New Orleans Saints (-5) vs. CAR
If you played in the Survivor pool last season, you know that the matchups to target for the majority of the season revolved around teams facing the Carolina Panthers, and things might not be much different this season as the Saints are favored by five points against the Panthers at the Caesars Superdome.
Looking at this matchup, the Saints have the highest adjusted probability of winning (75.9%) and the third-highest pick rate by field (over 10%) per Yahoo. It also won't be a better matchup for the Saints all season, as they have been either underdogs or weak favorites at home throughout their schedule until their Week 17 home matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
In Survivor, it's not just about picking the best team, but also picking the right situation to save your better team for later while other teams wear down their good ones. That's very hard to do in Week 1, but the Panthers haven't shown any notable improvement from last season to this one. Picking the Saints is a good way to avoid making sure-fire picks early on.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid in Week 1
Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. ARI
The Bills have a six-point home advantage, but the Cardinals could make some noise with a 1-0 start. The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis last offseason and replaced them with Curtis Samuel and rookie Keyon Coleman. That will require some adjustments, making the Bills' projected point total of 27 points (the second-highest projected point total going into Week 1) seem a bit hollow.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals return their core offensive line and have added first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to replace quarterback Kyler Murray, which could tarnish the Survivor pool early on. The public views the Bills as having the third-highest adjusted win probability and the second-highest pick, with 14.5% of players picking them in Week 1.
The Cardinals are on a bit of a roll offensively and the Bills need to find ways to score more points with their current lineup, so that could make it a tough situation for the Bills at home in Week 1. I wouldn't bet on them in Week 1 until we know more about the Bills and how their offense flows.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. LV
The Chargers have a field goal advantage heading into Week 1 against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium, but while public opinion is nearly split down the middle with Survivor Pool players backing the Chargers, new head coach Jim Harbaugh could tip public opinion dangerously in their favor.
Harbaugh returned to the NFL from Michigan and quickly dismantled his old offensive line. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett moved on to other teams. The receivers are led by Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark and Ladd McConkie. There are big differences between last season's receivers and this season's.
We know that Coach Harbaugh preaches a more physical style of football and running the ball, but is there a team that can pull it off? If anything, the Raiders, with Davante Adams, Jacobi Myers and Brock Bowers, could thwart the Chargers' attempts. Even with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, he has at least proven to be reasonably capable of throwing the ball.
The Chargers seem unhappy with their style of football and won't be a strong scoring team early on.
There are better matchups for the Chargers later in the season, so before we bet our entire Survivor pool on what amounts to a mystery box option against the Chargers in Week 1, let’s take a look at how they plan to run this offense with their run game and Justin Herbert.
Survivor Pool Selects Season Total
2024: 0-0
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