Colorado is expected to start the season with a win against an FCS rival, but it's unclear if the Buffaloes can cover that 10-point deficit.
August 28, 2024 • 14:24 ET • 4 min read
Rarely has a game between FCS teams garnered this much attention. Welcome to the Deion Sanders effect. The North Dakota State Bisons were scheduled to open the season against the Colorado Buffaloes long before Deion Sanders arrived with the Rockies. Many college football fans probably knew the Bisons had the potential to pull off an upset.
But the dynamics of this matchup have been heightened by the primetime hype and interest, and in our North Dakota State vs. Colorado State predictions, we’ll try to sort through the noise and find value in our college football picks before the kickoff at 8 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 29th.
North Dakota State vs. Colorado State Predictions
My best bet
North Dakota +10 (-115 at BetMGM)
My Analysis
The spread was favoring the Colorado Buffaloes by 8.5 points over the summer. The spread only started to rise as public attention shifted to college football. If the spread had risen to -9.5, there would have been no cause for concern. The actual difference between -8.5 and -9.5 is negligible, and the difference in the spread is essentially cosmetic.
But going all the way to -10 is a bit of a stretch. This is not something Deion fully doubts, but it's certainly one I see in my personal analysis. I won't deny it. This is enjoying a rare moment of market inefficiency in Week 1.
Looking at BetMGM's hand and ticket splits, no team saw more action this weekend than Colorado. In fact, no team saw more over action in this game, with 91% of hands going over. The increase in this spread was due to the late time slot and public interest, nothing else.
There may have been some serious debate about the value of the 8.5 point line. North Dakota State is known for its physically strong offensive line, even if it has faded a bit in recent years. Colorado has struggled to import entire offensive and defensive lines, a transfer portal-era conundrum that one head coach refuses to acknowledge or explain.
A team that is outplayed by two possessions and is more physical is bound to shorten the game, something the Bison offense did by default, which would have always been a +8.5 handicap.
+10So there is an argument to be made for why the spread is so high. The public hype around Deion Sanders is real. There is no need to ignore or dismiss it to recognize that it can also provide betting value.
North Dakota State vs Colorado State Matchup (SGP)
North Dakota +10.5
Less than 60.5
Shedul Sanders touches down anytime
The total rising from 58.5 a week ago to 60.5 isn’t as terrible a move as the 1.5 point increase in the spread, because 59 and 60 are not as significant numbers as +10, but this is still unjustified inflation caused by public funds, so let’s take advantage of it.
Betting on Colorado State quarterback Shedul Sanders to reach the end zone while also betting on the Under and the Bison increases the payout of this same-game parlay due to the opposing nature of these bets. But betting on Sanders to score is essentially a bet on North Dakota State's defensive line as well.
When Sanders gets red in the face, he drops his eyes and misses out on a chance to gain on a disrupted play downfield — an understandable mistake, as Sanders was often running for his life last season.
Creating one or two moments like that in the red zone would likely force Sanders to find the goal line on his own.
Learn how to bet on parlays on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
North Dakota State vs Colorado State odds
North Dakota State vs Colorado State live odds
North Dakota State vs. Colorado State opening odds
Spread: North Dakota State +7.5 | Colorado -7.5 Moneyline: North Dakota State +210 | Colorado -260 Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5
North Dakota State vs. Colorado State Spread and Over/Under Analysis
The spread first moved in May, rising from -7.5 to -8.5. It then held steady until a week ago. At first, a jump to -9.5 barely drew any attention, but a rise to -10 at some bookmakers prompted some counter-action. Colorado was favored by multiple possessions in just two games in Dion's first season, going 0-2 (both in overtime) and 1-1 against the spread in those two games. The total was at 58.5 all summer, from April through August. It only went up last week, reaching 61.5 at some bookmakers on Wednesday morning.
North Dakota vs Colorado betting trends to know
North Dakota State has a 9-4 record all-time against FBS opponents, winning six straight from 2010-2016 and defeating teams such as Kansas, Minnesota, Kansas State, Iowa State and even No. 11 Iowa in 2016. Find out more college football betting trends for North Dakota State vs. Colorado.
North Dakota State vs Colorado State Game Information
Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado When: Thursday, August 29, 2024 Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET TV: ESPN
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