The Olympic semifinals for men's basketball will be played as a doubleheader.
On Thursday, France and Germany will take to the field at 11.30am and our experts have some player predictions for this opening match with Dennis Schröder and Victor Wembanyama in the spotlight.
In what many consider to be the main event, Team USA will face off against some familiar faces as they take on Nikola Jokic's Serbia at 3pm ET. Despite the small field, our experts have plenty of predictions to make for the match that will take place on Thursday, August 8th.
So let's see what experts predict for the best bets on Olympic men's basketball.
Olympic Men's Basketball Thursday's best bets
France vs. Germany — 11:30 a.m. ET
Joe Derella's France vs. Germany Men's Olympic Basketball Prediction: Dennis Schroder over 17.5 points (-135)
Joe Derella
Dennis Schroder was a great source of goalscoring for Germany throughout the Olympics.
As a point guard, Schroder is guaranteed access to the ball and he takes full advantage of it. He has averaged 18 points per game in four Olympic Games, including a 26-point performance against France. He has an easy time getting to the basket, but he can also score off screens and shoot from beyond the arc, which gives him a high scoring ceiling.
France appears to have decided to use Rudy Gobert in the rotation, but without him the team's defense will likely suffer a bit.
In his last 20 important international matches, he has averaged 20.13 points per game, and with a spot on the podium at stake, I expect Schroder to have plenty of opportunities, and I also think it's worth sprinkling in 10 assists (+350 Bet365) or a double-double (+270) (whichever is the better number available) on how much of the attack should be in his hands.
Pick: Dennis Schroder over 17.5 points (-135) (BetMGM)
Alex Hinton's France vs Germany Men's Olympic Basketball Prediction: Germany -5 (-112)
Alex Hinton
France came into this Summer Olympics with gold medal hopes after losing to the United States in the gold medal game in Tokyo. But France was a disappointment in the tournament and in the qualifiers, especially offensively. Against Canada, France played their best game to date, surviving a 7.5-point deficit to beat Canada by nine points. But France still gave them a reason to throw them off.
Against Canada, France scored 82 points, their second-highest total in their last four games. However, they only scored 33 points on 42 free throw attempts. Some would say that France benefited from the referees' home cooking. I think that France just used their size advantage against Canada. Forwards Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Resor made 23 of 42 free throws, dominating the smaller Canadian wings. This led to foul trouble for RJ Barrett, Lou Dort and Dillon Brooks.
France's size advantage in this matchup was why I was hoping for Victor Wenbanyama to do well, but the 20-year-old only made 2-of-10 field goals and finished with just seven points. He'll also have a hard time building momentum against Germany, who scored 14 points last Friday. Germany has held their opponents to an average of 71 points per game on 42.6% field goal percentage in the Summer Olympics, and held France to 71 points last week. Assuming France continues to use Wenbanyama at center and limits Rudy Gobert's minutes, they won't have the same size advantage on the wing against Germany.
Gobert on the bench gives France more space, but they won't be able to match up to a German offense led by Dennis Schroder. Schroder is leading the Olympics with averages of 18 points and 8 assists, shooting 52 percent from the field and 41 percent from deep. Schroder could be the Olympic MVP if Germany wins the gold medal, but he has a rival in Franz Wagner on his team. The Magic star is averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals in the Olympics.
In last Friday's win over France, Schroeder and Wagner combined for 52 points and Germany had 14. They can bounce back with a win of five or more points this time around, but I expect Germany to be the team waiting for the Americans in the gold medal game.
Pick: Germany -5 (-112) (DraftKings)
Brian Fonseca's France vs. Germany Men's Olympic Basketball Prediction: Dennis Schroder will record a double-double or record 10+ assists
Brian Fonseca
At the time of writing, Bet365 is at +350. Ideally, this should be well above +200, and if so, it would be worth a small bet.
Joe Derella yelled out to me as we scanned the field. Primarily, we were looking for a way to bet on Dennis Schroder, since he's been great against France, and in international matches in general. You could bet on smaller numbers with PRA or PA, but it's better to bet on a double-double or 10+ assists, either of which will be worth more with your book of choice. (Yes, it should be assists, but you'd be surprised.)
Schroder had one double-double in four games (any more and the odds would be even worse), but he also had two assists in the quarterfinal against Greece and one in the group stage win over France.
Sprinkle in one of these if you can get at least +250 or something in that area.
Pick: Dennis Schroder records a double-double or records 10+ assists (Bet365)
Joe Derella's France vs Germany Men's Olympic Basketball Prediction: Victor Wembanyama over 16.5 points (-113)
Joe Derella
Victor scored points against Canada but wasn't needed as a scorer, shooting just 2-of-10 from the field and 3-of-6 from the free throw line in the 27 minutes he played.
An interesting lineup move was Coach Collett opting to play Rudy for just four minutes off the bench. This is partly due to injury but partly a strategic decision. If Rudy is limited again it should open up some more space on offense, but even if not, we have seen Wenby play well alongside Rudy.
Wenby is averaging 16.6 points per game on the international stage this year, including a 27-point, 14-point performance against Germany. This was his chance to bounce back, and France didn't need his offensive prowess with Yabusele, Cordinier and Fournier carrying the attacking load.
Germany doesn't have a great answer for him defensively, so I'd base him off at 16.5, with a sprinkling of 20+ (+205) and 25+ (+700).
Pick: Victor Wembanyama over 16.5 points (-113)
Brian Fonseca's France vs. Germany Men's Olympic Basketball Prediction: Dennis Schroder will make at least 2.5 3-pointers
Brian Fonseca
Rudy Gobert played three minutes in the last game, but his availability is unclear at this point. France implemented a new rotation, benching Gobert and Evan Fournier, and was largely driven by Guerschon Yabusele and Isaiah Cordinier, who started in their place, and Mathias Lesort, the first big man off the bench.
That being said, I don't think Dennis Schroder will be affected much by this. He's not that good internationally. He was MVP at last year's World Cup, when Franz Wagner barely played. With Wagner now the team's leading scorer, Schroder will be able to work with him more effectively.
Schroder has averaged 18.0 points per game and made over 2.5 3-pointers in three of four Olympic games, including 4-of-7 against France. He's been in drop coverage and should be learning the pull-up, averaging over seven 3-pointers per game in the four games. The only time he made fewer than seven 3-pointers was in a blowout win over Japan, where he made six.
Outside of that, he’s regularly clearing 2.5 and hitting 41.4 percent from deep.
Pick: Dennis Schroder – 2.5+ 3-pointers (Bet365)
USA vs. Serbia — 3 p.m. ET
Alex Hinton's USA vs. Serbia Men's Olympic Basketball Predictions: Nikola Jokic under 11.5 rebounds (-115)
Alex Hinton
Recent trends suggest that Nikola Jokic is likely to surpass that line, having recorded 13 rebounds in each of his last three games and averaging 14 rebounds per game. I love a high hitting percentage as much as anyone, but it's also important to consider the opponent. It's no secret that Jokic is one of the best rebounders and was expected to dominate the rebounding pile against small teams like Puerto Rico and South Sudan. He also recorded 14 rebounds against Australia, but that game went into overtime and Boomers center Jock Landale also fouled out.
The United States has three of the best centers in the world: Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo. Davis and Adebayo have been battling with Jokic in the NBA playoffs for the past few years, while Jokic and Embiid have been competing for the NBA MVP and have won the past four championships, making them rivals. All three are motivated to limit Jokic's influence in this game and continue America's challenge for a gold medal. Meanwhile, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, July Holiday, Stephen Curry, and Derrick White are all good rebounders at their positions.
Jokic had 11 rebounds in the qualifying game against the USA, but only five in 31 minutes in Serbia's loss to the USA in Group C. The USA scored 105 and 110 points, respectively, in those games. While shooting declines are to be expected, the USA is averaging 110 points and shooting 55% from the field in the Olympics. Serbia is not as good defensively, but is averaging 95.5 points per game.
In the first two matchups, Jokic is averaging 190 points and 8 rebounds per game, meaning that rebounding opportunities will be limited in another high scoring game. In those games, the U.S. is +22 in rebounds. Even if Jokic has a 20-10 game, he would only get 10 or 11 rebounds, not even reaching that line.
Pick: Nikola Jokic under 11.5 rebounds (-115) (DraftKings)
Joe Derella's USA vs. Serbia Men's Olympic Basketball Predictions: Anthony Edwards under 12.5 points (+105)
Joe Derella
One player who is expected to see his playing time reduced as the U.S. national team tightens its rotations in the semifinals is Anthony Edwards.
Edwards is elite, but he seems to do it with unsustainable efficiency.
Despite playing the third-fewest minutes per game (17.7), he averaged an astounding 16.7 points, shot 63.3% from the field, and 53.8% from the 3-point line. This is mainly because he was left in charge of the offense for long stretches by those large margins. The margin of victory in this game was 17.5 points, but I don't think that's indicative of the strength of either team.
I play for 12.5 points or less.
Pick: Anthony Edwards under 12.5 points (+105)(Bet365)
Brian Fonseca's Olympic Men's Basketball Prediction for USA vs. Serbia: Serbia +17.5
Brian Fonseca
We think Serbia has to make a three-point shot at some point.
Serbia shot about 38 percent from three-point range in last year's World Cup (eight games) and over 40 percent at EuroBasket 2022 (six games).
They have shot 32 percent from three-point range in four games so far this Olympics, including a 50 percent or better percentage on just 21 attempts against South Sudan, the only time they have shot better than 32 percent from three. You would think they would at least improve a little bit in this game.
Even if that didn't happen, the U.S. won Game 1 by 26 points despite shooting over 60 percent from 3-point range for much of the game, even climbing to 56 percent in the second half, while Serbia hovered in the low 20s and ended the game at 24 percent.
Memorably, Kevin Durant made all five of his 3-pointers and he and LeBron James were a combined 17-for-22 from the field. The U.S. outshot Serbia 32 percent on 3-pointers and over 20 percent on field goals.
This will probably be an unconventional match, a single elimination match, but I think Serbia is much stronger than they showed in that match. They will have to give it their all from now on.
Pick: Serbia +17.5 (DraftKings)
Joe Derella's USA vs. Serbia Men's Olympic Basketball Predictions: Nikola Jokic to steal at least 1.5 times (-125)
Joe Derella
Nikola Jokic is good at disrupting passing lanes on the defensive end.
Now he'll face the U.S. team in a rematch and look to pick up two steals.
Jokic recorded 10 steals in four games, including four against Team USA in the opening group stage game.
Both teams are playing at the fastest pace in the Olympics, and while Team USA's offense has flowed well, they also take risks and are careless with the ball at times.
Jokic expects to play at least 30 minutes, but closer to 35 because it's a gold medal game.
With the way Team USA runs their offense, Jokic's ability to influence passing lanes would be a huge benefit.
Catch him for over 1.5 steals.
Pick: Nikola Jokic – 1.5+ Steals (-125) (Bet365)
