The Denver Outlaws' second game of the weekend is a rematch against the Carolina Chaos.
Denver started off as a slight underdog, but the news that Carolina's leading scorer Josh Byrne would be absent caused the odds to flip at most sportsbooks. The total opened at 22.5 on FanDuel but is now at 23.5 across all sportsbooks. Here are my picks and bets for the Outlaws vs. Chaos in the PLL Week 10 finale.
Denver Outlaws vs Carolina Chaos odds
Denver (-1.5) Odds Money Line: -115Carolina (+1.5) Odds Money Line: -105Total 23.5 HoursSaturday 7 p.m.ETTVESPN2
Odds via FanDuel
A lot had changed since these teams last met. Brennan O'Neill was playing in midfield, Sean Sconone was starting as goalkeeper, and Eric Law had yet to return to the Outlaws. On the Chaos side, Josh Byrne was healthy and Blaise Riorden had left the match early with a leg injury. The first encounter saw 27 goals scored between the two teams.
Earlier this week, I bet this match would go over 22.5, but I'm not a huge fan of the over at 23.5, especially with Byrne out. Denver tends to struggle in scoring in solid sets, and while they are effective in transition, they are completely reliant on shaky goals. If you're going to bet on this total, I'd recommend waiting to see if both teams get off to a slow start. If both teams' attacks look good but are held back by strong goaltending play early on, a live bet on a total of 20.5 to 22.5 would be my style.
I also think Denver is a bit underrated at +100 by some books, but Carolina's defense is good enough and the offense is agile enough to keep this close even without Byrne. There are better ways to bet on this game than trusting a Dr. Jekyll and Hyde-like Denver team.
I think this will be a close game. BetMGM does not have game props posted for today's match, but if a margin of victory prop was posted, I would consider betting 1-2 goals at a reasonable price. I don't think either team can run away with this one. Half of Carolina's games have been decided by one possession, as have three of Denver's eight games. Instead of picking a team, I'll bet on this game finishing with a 1-2 goal margin of victory.
Jackson's Outlaws vs. Chaos prop bet
I am also targeting three player props.
My first target is Carolina's Kyle Jackson. Jackson has scored in five of eight games this season and, as the team's only true lefty, should be the starter on offense in Byrne's absence.
Jackson has thrived at the left wing position, scoring in his first game against Denver this season and again last year. His odds of scoring in the first period are a bit too high at +195 on FanDuel. Bet 0.5 units on Jackson scoring in the first quarter.
I'm betting on Shane Knoblock to score two goals. Knoblock scored a goal in the opener against Denver but suffered a foot injury late in the third quarter. The injury has lasted for a few games since then, but Knoblock has had success recently, scoring multiple goals in three consecutive games.
He’s shooting 29.9% from the field this season and should have plenty of chances throughout this matchup, and at FanDuel’s +164 odds, it’s reasonable to bet on Knoblauch to score at least 1.5 goals on Saturday night.
I’m also betting on Brennan O’Neal to be held under 3.5 points on FanDuel at +122. Those odds equate to a 45% chance that O’Neal will be held under 3.5 points, but I think the chances of Carolina’s defense holding him under three points are closer to 57%.
He has him at 4.5 on DraftKings, but his odds are at -225 (69% chance), making him a much weaker favorite even if he's more likely to stay under 3.5 points. Let's hope Jaron Newman and the Carolina defense can hold the Denver rookie to 3.5 points or less.
Picks: Kyle Jackson first quarter goal scorer (0.5 units), Shane Knoblock over 1.5 goals, Brennan O'Neill under 3.5 points
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