Michael Ballman
Foreign policy analyst
AFP
Narendra Modi at the top of the action of artificial intelligence in Paris on Tuesday
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump later this week, there will be warm hugs and shared laughs. But that’s not all.
Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal relationship over the years, marked by high -level meetings and joint apparitions.
Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their link has grown up by other events, including joint apparitions during massive rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from the visions of the shared world and politics and a mutual strategic focus on the fight against China, a concern that has also strengthened the broader American-Indian partnership.
Unsurprisingly, Trump has often criticized India, but he never criticized Modi.
And so, during the visit of Modi, the two leaders will probably spend time mapping the next steps of the American strategic partnership of India, which is already in the right place.
Modi would have met several members of Trump’s office, as well as American business leaders and members of the American-Indian community.
He can also meet SpaceX and Tesla chief, Elon Musk. Modi, eager to balance the electric vehicle sector booming in India, would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.
Getty images
Trump and Modi meet previously, in Delhi in 2020
And yet, the conviviality of Trump-Modi and the exhilarating discourse in strategic partnership can hide a reality that gives to think: during the visit of Modi, the transactional side of the relationship will enter into relief with each leader, in particular Trump, armed a range of requests.
Delhi knows Trump well. Many current ministers of Modi also served during his previous mandate, which overlooked with part of the first Trump administration. This familiarity has been exposed since the inauguration of Trump last month: Delhi has publicly reported his desire to reduce prices, resume undocumented Indian immigrants and buy US oil.
He has already lowered certain prices and took over 104 undocumented Indians, the first plane arriving in India last week. These preventive steps aim to prevent Trump from making specific requests from India and reducing the probability of tensions with the new Trump administration.
However, Trump can ask Modi to make additional prices discounts, to further remove an American trade deficit from products and services with India which has approached $ 46 billion (37.10 billion pounds sterling) in recent years. But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi can ask Trump to conclude bilateral talks on an economic partnership intended to reduce prices on both sides.
In recent years, Delhi has shown an increasing desire to conclude trade agreements. The Trump administration can prove to be a more disposed interlocutor than the Biden administration, which has imposed heavy environmental conditions and linked to the workforce on new trade agreements.
Getty images
In 2019, thousands of Indian-American Indians attended an event in Houston where Modi and Trump made a common appearance
Trump can also ask Modi to resume more undocumented Indians. Since some estimates put the number more than 700,000 – the third group of this type in the United States – it will be a difficult and delicate problem to sail for Delhi.
Last week, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jaishankar, told Parliament that the government was working with the United States to ensure that Indian citizens were not mistreated when they were expelled after reports on fact that they are chained triggered anger.
Trump can also ask Modi to buy more American oil.
In 2021, India was the main destination for US oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made major changes in the world oil markets and prompted Delhi to increase cheap oil imports The share of narrow Russia. The price will determine the amount of oil that India is willing to buy in the United States.
Modi can also come with its own energy ask: Invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi changes his nuclear responsibility law and has announced a new nuclear energy mission, with the aim of sharpening international interest in fuel.
India aims to meet half of its energy needs thanks to renewable energies by 2030. Asking Trump to invest in a nuclear fuel is equivalent to a joyful potential environment: it is cleaner than fossil fuels, but Very far from solar and wind energy which cannot hit the Trump administration as an attractive investment.
Technology will probably also be discussed.
It was a rapid growth space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the implementation in 2022 of the initiative on critical and emerging technologies (ICET), which the two parties consider as a new cornerstone for strategic partnership. Icet is supposed to be supervised directly by the two advisers in national security – to avoid getting bogged down in the bureaucracy – which means that they each have to be invested there.
Modi will probably ask for assurances from Trump and his national security advisor Mike Waltz that they remain attached to this. Since Washington focuses on the fight against China by making India a larger part of the tech global supply chains, they will probably do.
Also on the technological cooperation front, Modi can make an argument for Trump to maintain the H-1B visa regime. These visas for highly qualified foreign workers, strongly criticized by certain influential supporters of Trump, have been awarded to a large number of Indian technology employees in the United States.
Getty images
Indians dominate the H-1B visa program, which brings qualified foreign workers to the United States
Other countries can also occur during Modi conversations in Washington. Iran could be particularly large.
Delhi joins Tehran to develop a port in the city of Chabahar – which is part of a wider Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia, via Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the American administration published a presidential memorandum describing Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which suggests the abolition of sanctions for those who carry out commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi can request clarity what it means for Delhi.
Trump can also assess Modi’s position on a high priority of foreign policy: put an end to wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Delhi has a strong interest in these wars that end. Modi’s position on the war in Ukraine – calling at the end of the conflict without criticizing Putin or Russia – echoes that of Trump.
The special relationship of India with Russia and close links with Israel can encourage Trump to see if Modi would also like to play a third party mediator. Modi would probably only be comfortable if the parties are receptive to external mediation.
But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, the two leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.
In this regard, the Indo-Pacific Quad will be exactly what the doctor has ordered.
Trump strongly supports this group which consists of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on the fight against Beijing.
In his first mandate, Trump raised annual quad meetings at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and raised them at the level of the leaders.
India should organize the Quad and Modi meeting of this year and Modi could invite Trump to Delhi to attend.
Trump is not a big fan of international trips, but India is a trip he probably wants to make – to deepen his personal relationship with Modi and advance a multiforme bilateral partnership which extends far beyond transactionalism Who will wear the day in Washington this week.
Michael Kugelman is director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute in Washington
Follow BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook.
Getty images
Delhi works with Tehran to develop a port in the Iranian city of Chabahar
