The Texas Rangers are coming off a 5-3 win on Friday night. Tonight the Cleveland Guardians will try to bounce back and tie the series. Jon Gray will be on the mound for the Rangers and Ben Lively for the Guardians. Oddsmakers are viewing the Rangers as slight underdogs, putting them at +110 on the moneyline. The total, which started at 8 late last night, is set at 8.5.
Let's take a look at Saturday's Rangers vs. Guardians MLB parlay.
John Feltman's Rangers vs. Guardians MLB Parlay Picks for Saturday
Corey Seager – 1.5+ bases (-120) Josh Naylor – 1.5+ bases (+110) Ben Lively – 4.5+ strikeouts (-130)
Parlay Odds: +515 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly, this is a long shot for a reason.
Corey Seager Total Bases 1.5 or More (-120)
Rangers vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Corey Seager had a great August, posting a .993 OPS during that time. He had two hits on Friday night and has a great matchup coming up on Saturday against Ben Lively. Seager is 1-for-3 against Lively, but that one hit was a home run. Lively has started to fade after a great start to the season and is a player who allows hard contact.
Lefty hitters are only hitting .216 against Lively, but I wouldn't let that put me off. Seager is batting .289 against righty batters in 2024 with 36 extra-base hits, especially against his fastball and sinker. Lively relies on his fastball and sinker about 68% of the time. Seager boasts an xWOBA of over .394 against both pitches and a hard-hit rate of 58%.
I expect Seager to continue to excel against right-handed pitching, with Lively fittingly being the perfect matchup, and with the luxury of the Rangers being the visiting team, Seager will likely get some extra at-bats.
Josh Naylor 1.5+ total bases (+110)
Rangers vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Josh Naylor has been an inconsistent hitter at times, going 0-18 in his last four games. Tonight he'll have to be ready to go against Rangers right-hander Jon Gray, who is in the midst of a slump. Naylor is just 5-for-15 against Gray, who is nearing the end of his career at this point. Gray's strikeout numbers have plummeted, and opposing hitters are hitting him 43% of the time.
Gray primarily uses two pitches: a fastball and a slider. Naylor struggles against sliders, but has a great record against fastballs. Naylor is much better against right-handed pitchers and is a better hitter at home. Gray has a strikeout rate of just 14.9% against fastballs, so there's a good chance Gray can strike out a fastball in two at-bats.
I don't expect Naylor to continue his slump and tonight is a great opportunity to buy him cheap on his total bases prop, but that being said, I'm willing to take a chance on him getting at least one extra base hit tonight.
Ben Lively strikes out fewer than 4.5 batters (-130)
Rangers vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Ben Lively has been expected to decline seriously all season, but it looks like that's finally happening. Lively has posted a 4.05 ERA over the past month, but has only struck out 18 batters in 26 innings.
The Rangers may be a disappointment in 2024, but their team-wide strikeout rate is just 21%, which is top 10 in all of MLB. Lively struck out five in his last start against Minnesota, but only three in his two previous starts combined. Here are some key strikeout metrics for Lively:
– Chase's 11th percentile %
Whiff Rate -7th percentile
Strikeout Rate -29th percentile
Fastball Velocity -5th percentile
All of these numbers are concerning and are why he has declined recently. I expect the Rangers offense to generate a lot of contact tonight and wouldn't be surprised if he leaves the game early.
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About the Author
John Feltman is a college football and college basketball writer for the Action Network. He is also a middle school English teacher who keeps his students on their toes in the world of sports. He spends his free time at school writing reports and making predictions for the week's games. Feltman is also a movie buff, an avid reader, a poker player, and most of all, a Dallas Cowboys fan. He hasn't missed a televised game since he was 10 years old.
Follow John Feltman @johnfeltmanli on Twitter/X.
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