Rangers vs. Orioles (August 28)

Wednesday's MLB action will feature the biggest game at 7:10 PM ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we'll explore MLB DFS projections and learn how to use Stochastic's tools to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and create the best daily fantasy baseball lineups. Chris Sale and David Festa are two key pitchers today, and Freddy Peralta is a promising wild card if he can get strikeouts. Turning to the offensive line, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles provide stacking opportunities outside of Coors Field as notable MLB DFS picks, according to the Stochastic MLB DFS Top Stacks tool.

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers to Watch and Top Stacks | August 28

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers to Watch

Primary pitcher target for main slate: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at MIN)

Braves vs Twins – Estimated Score 3.6
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
$11,000 on DraftKings
$11,500 on FanDuel
$58 on Yahoo

The Stochastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool recommends left-handed pitcher Chris Sale despite his high salary. FanDuel has nearly 20 hitters who are solid options under $2,800, while DraftKings has 15 solid hitters under $3,200. Yahoo also has six hitters you can buy at a discount below the double-digit salary level.

In the past, DraftKings' salary algorithm would push top pitchers past the $12,000 threshold — players like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and, five or six years ago, Chris Sale — but today, with so few reaching that lofty mark, the $11,000 range is the new standard.

Sale is far ahead in the National League Cy Young Award race and is playing the best game of his career. The Twins don't have Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa, but they do have some solid right-handed hitters. Of course, at Sale's current form, that's just Royce Lewis, switch-hitter Willy Castro and Carlos Santana (in his age-38 season). Sale has been in this series a lot this year, so there's not a lot left to analyze.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP David Festa (MIN vs. ATL)

Twins vs Braves – Estimated Score: 4.1
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel
$35 on Yahoo

Unfortunately, Atlanta has been plagued by injuries this season, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley all out with injuries, and it's clear they aren't the same ferocious offensive force they were earlier this season.

Rookie right-hander David Festa has played decently in his last six games, but is averaging just over four innings per game and throwing only 74 pitches. Festa is unlikely to get a win tonight against Sale, but it's important to understand how important limiting him to 80 pitches is from a fantasy perspective. A good game could earn you 15-16 points on DraftKings and 25-30 points on FanDuel. This is reasonable from a points-per-dollar standpoint, but it may not be enough to push a minimum cash roster into the max payout range.

Main Slate Wild Card Pitcher Target: RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL vs. SF)

Brewers vs Giants – Estimated Points: 3.6
First pitch: 8:10 pm ET
$9,800 on DraftKings
$9,200 on FanDuel
$46 on Yahoo

Right-hander Freddy Peralta's performance over the past month has been inconsistent. On the plus side, his ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.27 are respectable. On the other hand, his strikeout numbers have plummeted, to just 15 in 22 innings in August. Peralta has pitched against Cleveland and the Dodgers, as well as for St. Louis and Atlanta.

San Francisco is far less formidable than the last four teams Peralta has faced. Six batters have struck out 24% of the time against right-handed pitchers this season. To justify tonight's paycheck, “Fastball Freddie” will need a quality start with at least six strikeouts. He's done that only twice, against Atlanta on July 31 and Minnesota on July 20. Buy at your peril.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stack

Key target for the main slate: Texas Rangers

Rangers vs. White Sox – Estimated Score: 5.4
First pitch: 8:10 pm ET
Opposing starting pitcher: RHP Touki Toussaint
DK Top Stack %: 8.2%
FD Top Stack %: 8.4%

The Stochastic MLB DFS Top Stack tool once again has the Rockies and Marlins at a combined 25% chance that one of those two teams will be the top-scoring stack on this slate. Moving on to the alternate stacks, Texas has a great matchup with RHP Touki Toussaint.

The game was stopped after four pitches on Tuesday, so the teams will essentially play a doubleheader today. Toussaint is expected to get the start, but the White Sox's current weak relief corps means the Rangers will likely transition from a strong comeback at Coors Field to a solid complement of doubles and triples, even if left-hander Garrett Crochette takes the mound tonight instead of continuing on from last night.

Corey Seager is posting an impressive .398 wOBA and .268 ISO in 350 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitchers this season. Over the past 30 days, those numbers are even more impressive at .436 wOBA and .378 ISO. Adoris Garcia has also been improving against opposite-handed pitchers, which will be key to the Rangers finishing this season on a high with the Rangers unlikely to get a chance to defend their World Series title.

Toussaint has worked to develop a groundball pitcher capable of striking out batters, but he's allowed too much hard contact on fly balls for that strategy to work, and his control has been an issue, with the 28-year-old walking 5.8 batters per nine innings in his career, including key innings as a reliever, which is no mean feat.

Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Josh Jung and Leody Taveras are all vying to replace Seager and Garcia with a full stack.

Follow our comprehensive lineup generator guide to get the most out of your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic's lineup generator.

Late target: Baltimore Orioles

Orioles vs Dodgers – Estimated Score: 4.4
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: RHP Walker Buehler
DK Top Stack %: 6.4%
FD Top Stack %: 7.5%

Right-hander Walker Buehler was shaky in his two starts since missing two months with a hip injury. The 30-year-old pitcher walked seven batters, struck out just four and allowed six earned runs in 7.1 innings against Seattle and Milwaukee.

While Buehler is in jeopardy, the Dodgers' relievers are available at the first sign of trouble, which has helped the Orioles' team total run total to just 4.4. A recent home run rush by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge has helped the Yankees surpass Baltimore in home runs, but Birdland's lineup still ranks first in base hits and third in runs scored this season.

Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have both been great this season, and youngster Colton Cowser has thrived since being promoted to the leadoff hitter role. Cedric Mullins and Jaxon Holiday are differentiation options at the back of the lineup, while Ryan O'Hearn and Eloy Jimenez can be replacements in the middle of the lineup. Both of LA's left-handed relievers are available tonight, with O'Hearn a pinch-hit risk, so keep that in mind.

OddsShopper's Featured MLB Bets of the Day

RHP Osvaldo Bid continues to perform well, so it's hard to tell if he's truly stepped up or if his apparent success is just a small sample size. Looking at his strikeout rate of 4.5 or less seems like a smart choice tonight.

Currently, this opportunity is highlighted on DraftKings and is available at odds of +105.

OddsShopper's +EV MLB bets show that this wager has “true odds” of -106 for the up-and-coming ace to strike out five or fewer times, which equates to an excellent expected ROI of 5.4%.

Also, with Fliff posting a -135 line (equivalent to an expected ROI of -10%), you can see how important it is to look at the odds.

Vid has struck out 6, 6, 5, 6, 6 and 6 in his last six appearances. His expectation for today is 4.7, which is above his 4.5 average but below the 5 threshold since there are obviously no strikeouts in baseball. It's important to note that this game will be played at the most home run-producing venue in the league, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Vid has only allowed two home runs in his last six appearances, but he'll be facing a home run-hitting team that can cut any pitcher's time on the mound in no time.

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MLB DFS Final Thoughts for Wednesday, August 28th

While the featured games are likely to avoid precipitation issues, early games in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic could present challenges. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check out our top MLB weather page for the latest updates as game time approaches.

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