The Minnesota Twins will be looking to make it three straight wins on Wednesday afternoon against the rival Kansas City Royals at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET and the game can be viewed on MLB Network.
The Royals-Twins series finale will feature a pitching duel between Cole Ragans and Louis Berland. Ragans is the ace of the Royals' pitching staff and has proven himself capable of pitching every fifth day. The 26-year-old left-hander has a great arsenal, keeps the hard hitters down and strikes out a lot. Berland's pitches are below average, so the Twins' relief corps may have to do the dirty work.
Below we preview the American League Central Division finale and give our Royals vs. Twins predictions and moneyline picks.
Royals vs Twins odds
Wednesday, August 14
1:10pm ET
MLB Network
Royals Odds Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-215
7.5
-115 degrees / -105 degrees
+110
Twins Odds Spread Total Money Line
-1.5
+176
7.5
-115 degrees / -105 degrees
-130
Projected starting pitchers for Royals vs. Twins
LHP Cole Ragans (KC) StatsRHP Louis Berland (MIN)9-7W-L0-43.8fWAR (FanGraphs)-0.23.27/3.43ERA /xERA6.46/5.642.97/3.37FIP / xFIP5.62/4.241.17WHIP1.6620.6%K-BB%12.8%40.4%GB%45.7%108Stuff+102100Location+96For more previews of today's games, visit our MLB Betting Hub.
DJ James' Royals vs. Twins Preview
Kansas City Royals betting predictions: Ragans as strong as ever
Ragans has an ERA of 3.27 and an xERA of 3.43. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are above average. He has a strikeout rate of 28.8% and a walk rate of 8.1%. Ragans produces a lot of strikeouts, which will be key against the Twins, who have a high strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. Ragans has pitched at least six strong innings in the majority of his starts over the past few months, so it would be great to see him fill in for a relatively weak relief corps.
The Royals have been dominant against right-handed pitching over the last month, posting a 126 wRC+, 6.4% walk rate and 16% strikeout rate. They have eight hitters with an xwOBA above .305 and six active hitters with an xwOBA above .320. Bobby Witt Jr. adds an exciting addition to an already potent offensive team against right-handed pitching.
The Royals' relief corps has had its issues, with an xFIP of 4.26 last month, a strikeout rate of 19.8% and a walk rate of 7.5%. The addition of Lukas Erceg was a nice addition to the tail end of the bullpen, and they have two other pitchers with xFIPs under 4.00, which should be enough if Ragans is the starter.
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Minnesota Twins betting predictions: Lefties are a weakness for the Twins
Varland has a 6.46 ERA and a 5.64 xERA. His ground ball rate is above average, but the right-hander's average exit velocity is over 91 MPH and he's in the ninth percentile for hard-hit rate. He's walking just 6.8% of his batters, but he's not striking out many or chasing them down.
The Twins lineup has been much more successful against right-handed pitchers than left-handed ones. Ragans has been pretty successful this year, allowing just five runs in 11 innings against the Twins. Of note, the Twins have posted a 62 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since July 14th, with an 8.2% walk rate and 25.4% strikeout rate. Of batters with eight or more at-bats against lefties during that span, only four have an xwOBA above .330. Byron Buxton is also looking day-to-day again.
In relief, the Twins have performed better than Kansas City over the past month with a combined xFIP of 4.00 and a strikeout rate of over 24%, although their walk rate is just over 8%. The Twins have five pitchers with an xFIP under 4.00, so the bullpen should be able to handle Varland if he gives up some runs early on.
Royals vs Twins predictions, betting analysis
Look for Ragans to continue his solid pitching performance and root for the Royals, a team that has been hitting recently. I still have faith in Kansas City whether Varland or Ober are pitching. Neither will be able to contain this lineup that has been so solid recently. Ragans and company will be able to hold the fort, especially if Buxton is out Wednesday as well.
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Money Line
+115 (Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
+1.5 (No)
Over/Under
7.5 (No)
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