This article was originally published in German
Experts warn that politicians need to take Russia's so-called “hybrid warfare” more seriously and that the public needs to be better prepared.
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The war has been in the headlines almost daily since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, Russia is waging a second war that gets less coverage.
Russia's so-called “second war” is directed at the West: “It's a war against the (Western) democratic model,” says Franziska Davis, an expert on Eastern Europe.
Though difficult to define, what experts call Russian “hybrid warfare” can include anything short of direct military conflict, Davis said, Russian actions have one common goal: to weaken and destabilize the West.
One example of Russian hybrid warfare was the plot uncovered earlier this month to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall, a German auto and arms manufacturer based in Dusseldorf. The plot, first reported by the US broadcaster CNN, was part of a broader plan to attack executives at European defense companies that make weapons for delivery to Ukraine.
“What Russia ultimately wants is a Europe in which it can pursue its goals without regard for international rules and laws. A Europe in which Russia can exercise its power through force,” explains Franziska Davis of Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich.
The threat of online fake news
Experts say Russia's hybrid warfare consists of multiple strategies, including hacking, personal attacks, and disinformation and fake news. “We are all targets of these information influence operations,” said Tapio Pizarro, head of international relations at the European Centre for Combating Hybrid Threats.
Ahead of the European Parliament elections in June, there was a coordinated attempt to share targeted pro-Russia, anti-vaccination and anti-LGBTQ campaigns on social media.
Dutch private research institute Trollrensics found a large-scale disinformation campaign in Germany promoting and sharing content in support of the German far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), and suspects that the bots behind this content come from Russia or pro-Russian groups.
While many European countries have stepped up security measures against hybrid attacks since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Estonian expert Pisaro warned that countries would be better prepared to counter threats if they shared data with each other, which often runs afoul of national security laws.
“What democracies still need to do is strengthen their laws across the board to close the gaps that hybrid actors exploit,” Pizarro said.
How to spot fake news?
Something that should be done every day, and something that everyone can do, is to recognize fake news and not spread it, Pizarro said: “Everyone has a role to play in verifying information and making sure that what we spread is based on facts and not misinformation.”
One reason is that disinformation campaigns spread by Russia often follow similar patterns, explains Dr Frank Sauer, a security policy expert at the Federal Armed Forces University in Munich.
“Whether it's the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 or the bombing of the children's hospital in Kiev, first people say it was insane, then someone else, and finally it's 'yes, it was our fault, but they got what they deserved,'” Sauer said.
Experts say that to uncover disinformation campaigns, it's worth checking whether other media outlets have independently verified the information being shared. It's also important to check the source of the news, such as which social media profile it originated from.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's fake news exposure manual notes that usernames for X-profiles are often random combinations of numbers, while fake profiles often use old images or images randomly selected directly from Google search results.
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The goal of Russian disinformation, Sauer said, is to “make people feel powerless and convinced that they will never know the truth.”
But hybrid attacks could extend beyond the online sphere: Estonian hybrid threat expert Tapio Pisaro said that just as Russia has attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure, critical infrastructure elsewhere in Europe could also become a Russian target.
He said he did not want to cause alarm, but “people should be prepared for any kind of disruption, for example in essential services or in the supply of essential food.”
Pyysalo sums it up: “Let's prepare for the worst, but of course hope for the best.”
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Germany's “nightmare scenario”
In Germany, Europe's largest economy and the target of several attacks suspected to be Russian, Frank Sauer said his “worst-case nightmare scenario” was a total blackout.
“The general public is not well prepared for a situation like this. We naively assume that the weather will always be nice, that there will be water from the taps and that there will be food in the supermarkets,” Sauer explains.
The German Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance has taken steps to create a stockpile and is advising people to stockpile 10 days' worth of food and two litres of water per person per day. The agency's advice also includes having an emergency first aid kit and keeping important documents handy so they can be quickly accessed in case of an emergency.
Civil resistance needs to be strengthened
In such exceptional circumstances, Sauer argues, it would be more important to strengthen civilian resistance than to strengthen the military.
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A German security expert explains: “Basically, we need extra people who can help in an emergency, who can stack sandbags, get the emergency generators out of the hall and start them up.”
In Germany, the goal should be to make sure that “in an emergency, everyone has a warm blanket, there is a place for the children to play, there is an emergency generator to charge your phone, and someone can cook soup.”
Sauer stresses that this is not only important in the event of an external attack on infrastructure, but that the climate crisis could also cause power outages.
His hope is that “there is a broad social consensus that as a society we should invest not just money but also time.” For example, he talks about people spending 12 months in the Federal Technical and Rescue Service, the fire brigade, the Red Cross or even the German army. “Then, when something breaks down in your community, in your neighbourhood, you know what to do.”
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