Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 baseball season.
At Opening Pitch, our goal is to highlight the top daily predictive edges on MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My predictions for all MLB games are available in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the game pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 17th.
Saturday MLB predictions, expert predictions, odds and today's preview (August 17th)
Kenny Ducey's Marlins vs. Mets predictions, picks and preview
Max Mayer vs. Luis Severino
The Mets may be struggling, having dropped winnable series against the Mariners and Athletics, but it's hard to blame the offense. They may have scored more than one run in each of their three games last week, but Seattle is playing in a very unfavorable ballpark for the power-hungry Mets and boasts arguably the best starting rotation in baseball.
From there, New York gave up 20 runs to the Athletics over three games this week, but a pitching collapse ultimately led to the team's loss. Luis Severino will be expected to do better on Saturday as he takes the mound against a sluggish Marlins offense.
Severino has firmly re-established himself as a ground-ball pitcher, which is good news considering Miami has the third-worst OPS against pitchers who hit ground balls and is 18th in reverse splits. On top of that, the Marlins have seen their strikeout rate rise to an astounding 27.8% over the past two weeks, meaning Severino's ground-ball pitchers generally strike out less, but he's starting to show glimpses of the potential to strike out.
The right-hander struck out just 15.3% of batters he faced in June, but that rose to 18.5% in July and a near-top-line 28.3% in his two starts this month. You can praise opponents all you want (they've faced the Rockies and Mariners), but Miami is certainly in the discussion with those two as the team with the most strikeouts in baseball, and Severino should continue to be able to get them.
The Mets have had to endure the constant struggles posed by David Peterson and Jose Quintana over the past few days, but with favorable ground ball splits and rising strikeout numbers, I expect Severino to thrive as the stopper here.
Meanwhile, it's not a dream matchup for the Mets against Max Meyer. He's also a pitcher who gets hit on the ground, but I'm not sure that will be an issue. Meyer is unique in that he allowed 1.73 homers per nine innings in his short time in the major leagues compared to 1.4 homers per nine innings in the minor leagues.
Many cried “service time manipulation” when top prospect Mayer spent the entire season in the minor leagues, but what no one wanted to admit was that the right-hander's terrible 4.34 ERA showed he had a lot of room to improve before he could reach his potential.
The Mets should continue to hit well, as they did against Oakland, while Severino and a struggling bullpen should have a much easier time against a Marlins team that can't hit as hard as Seattle or Oakland.
Bet: Mets -1.5 (+112) | Play to +100
Kenny Ducey's Diamondbacks vs. Rays predictions, picks and preview
Zach Gallen vs. Jeffrey Springs
Jeffrey Springs appears to be back. One of the top pitchers in the American League before undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year, the left-hander got off to his best start of the year in his most recent game against Baltimore, shaking off the rust in his first two games back, allowing just six hits and one run while striking out eight.
The lefty has shown great promise in the strikeout department and has also established a track record of containing power with a .387 expected slugging percentage that's about 20 points below league average, and a .364 expected slugging percentage in his final full season two years ago.
This will be crucial for Springs, considering the Diamondbacks have blown the world away with their .249 isolated power over the past two weeks, and are making the most of their hard hitting with a respectable 10.3% walk rate and a .289 batting average.
The veteran pitcher has pitched the past three years without taking many of the expected hits and excels at limiting hits and walks. I don't think anyone has the power to slow down Arizona's momentum. Ketel Marte is still injured, so this team may not look as threatening as expected. Also, keep in mind that Arizona's ISO is .180 against right-handers and just .158 against left-handers.
So I'm going under here. If they can beat Arizona, Zac Gallen should take over after cramping in his last outing. Gallen had cramps in his last outing but is expected to recover. The right-hander will face a Rays team that ranks last in wRC+ over the past two weeks and 24th in OPS against pitchers who hit ground balls.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105) | Play until -115
Kenny Ducey's Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions, picks and preview
Bryan Bello vs. Cade Povich
The Bryan Bello gamble has been a mixed bag this year. The right-hander is talented and has improved his strikeout ability this season. He's given up a few less ground balls, but he remains one of the most ground-ball-prone pitchers in the AL.
The problem is that Bello continues to struggle with allowing hard hits, grading seven points above league average, and he also struggles with a weak infield, developing a bad habit of allowing 18 home runs in 22 starts.
Baltimore is still scoring runs, but they've been a bit underpowered with an isolated power of .167 over the past two weeks, which is tough news considering this team has been good in that department all year but now their strikeout and walk rates have worsened.
The Orioles rank fifth nationally in OPS against flyball pitchers with a .753 OPS and 15th against groundball pitchers with a .715 OPS, so Bello should have an advantage here. The Orioles, who are second in home run-to-flyball ratio this year, are just 12th in the category over the past two weeks.
So, since it's no secret that the Red Sox have had issues with left-handed pitching this season, one might wonder how to handle this. Well, I don't think Cade Povich is good enough to make that an issue. The rookie started well in Triple-A earlier this year, but stumbled in the minor leagues in May with a 5.04 ERA.
Povich has been plagued by walks in his 37 1/3 major league innings, which has seen his ERA rise to 6.27. After a hot start in Norfolk this month before faltering again, the Orioles are ready to turn to him again.
Boston probably isn't the team this youngster wants to see here. The Red Sox are one of the best in the league when it comes to power hitters and could be top-five in runs scored if their strikeout numbers aren't so terrible.
Povich has struck out just 14.3% of the batters he has faced at this level and has three or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts at both levels. Boston expects to thoroughly outwork Povich and come away with a win despite the unfavorable platoon split.
Bet: Red Sox +108 | Play until -105
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About the Author
Kenny Ducey, a leading expert on tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has developed an online following through his work with the Tennis Channel and his experience covering baseball for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience that includes covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham University's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for the Action Network and is a digital contributor to the Tennis Channel. He has also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.
Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.
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