A new season is upon us. Whereas in week zero we were given a small plate of appetizers, this week it's a never-ending, endless meal of football courses. When it comes to betting on the outcome, everyone wants to get off to a fast start, but the first week of the year brings challenges.
We think we know who these teams are, but we don't. Predicting how a game will play out is a mystery, especially in the age of the transfer portal. Some teams may have players with a lot of experience, but how much value is that experience if it's all from another team?
But we're not the only ones working with incomplete information. Sportsbooks don't have it all figured out yet, either. Look what happened last week. Not only did all four underdogs cover the spread, but they did so by an average of 15.5 points. So, knowing this, how should we approach Week 1? No differently than any other week.
Play with confidence, and that’s exactly what I’m doing these last six games.
SportsLine Consensus Odds
Games of the Week
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 Clemson: Everyone loves a matchup between two teams who were considered the favorites to win their respective conferences from the get-go, and this game certainly is. Georgia comes into this game coming off a disappointing season in which the two-time national champions lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and were eliminated from the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Clemson is coming off its worst season in over a decade. The Tigers won just nine games last season, falling short of 10 wins for the first time since going 6-7 in 2010.
The problem for Clemson is that while expectations were high this season (I predicted the Tigers would win the ACC), this is a difficult matchup at a bad time. I've never been a fan of QB Cade Klubnick, but it's hard to trust him against Georgia's defense. On the other hand, they have QB Carson Beck and one of the best offensive lines in the country, one of the few that can mitigate the damage that Clemson's defensive line can do. I don't think the Bulldogs will overpower the Tigers, but I also don't think they'll score enough points to hold them to these numbers. Prediction: Georgia -13.5 (-105)
#7 Notre Dame vs. #20 Texas A&M: Big game for both teams. Notre Dame is coming into this season with a College Football Playoff berth in mind, so a road win against the Aggies would look good on their resume. Texas A&M is unlikely to win the SEC, but a win against Notre Dame would help their wild card chances. So who will win? We have no idea! Both teams have new offensive coordinators. Mike Denbrock returns to the Fighting Irish after developing Jayden Daniels into a Heisman Trophy winner, and Collin Klein is one of new coach Mike Elko's biggest hires for the Aggies.
Both of these guys are great offensive coordinators, but I expect the defense to have the edge here. Notre Dame already made a change at starting offensive tackle before expected left tackle replacement Charles Jagsa was out for the season. That's a big loss any time, but it could be a serious problem against a defense that added DL Nick Skorton to the portal this offseason. Plus, what coach understands how to stop Notre Dame's new quarterback, Riley Leonard, better than the guy who coached him at Duke? And the Notre Dame defense will once again be one of the best in the country. I don't think it's going to be a fun day for either offense here. Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)
This Week in Rock
Wyoming vs. Arizona State: The 2023 season was a tough one for Arizona State. The Sun Devils finished 3-9 in head coach Kenny Dillingham's first year. Improvements are expected this year, but how much? Wyoming won't be an easy test for Sparky. The Cowboys have a new head coach in Jay Sobel, but he's been the defensive coordinator in Laramie since 2020 and knows what he needs to work on and what has worked well for the program in recent years.
I'm also intrigued by Wyoming QB Evan Svoboda. He's a big guy with big arms at 6'5, 245 pounds, and the coaching staff thinks highly of him for 2024. He'll be facing an Arizona State defense that was pretty awful last year, ranking 122nd nationally in points allowed per possession, 118th in success rate, and 106th in EPA per snap. An offense led by an inexperienced young QB Sam Leavitt and a bad defense is not a combination I want to bet on as a favorite. Pick: Wyoming +7 (-110)
Persecuted Team of the Week
Fresno State vs. No. 9 Michigan: There are a ton of questions surrounding Michigan as the season begins. Some off the field, but a ton on the field. They have a new coaching staff, a nearly new offensive roster and the possibility of NCAA penalties looming. If last year's game is any indicator, Michigan won't be afraid of any controversy and will use it as motivation to blow their opponents away. This matchup will be their chance to do just that.
Unlike Texas, who doesn't have much of a video trail with a week to go before their game in Ann Arbor next week, Michigan has motivation to keep playing. We still don't know who the team's starting quarterback will be, and it wouldn't be a surprise if this game continues as an audition ground for Alex Orji and Davis Warren. (Brandon Marcelo has written more about this competition here.) If Michigan gets an early lead, I don't expect the Dawgs to walk away. And even if they don't blow a big lead, how many points do you expect Fresno State to actually score against the Wolverines defense? Remember that Jeff Tedford, one of the best coaches in the sport, stepped down this offseason for health reasons. Prediction: Michigan -20.5 (-118)
This week's hot seat games
No. 19 Miami vs. Florida: This game takes place in the Swamp, but beneath those dark, murky waters lies a nuclear bomb of a story that could explode and infect everyone within a 750-mile radius. Neither coach, Billy Napier, nor Mario Cristobal, can afford to lose this one. Napier already has one of the most-watched seats in the country, but if Miami loses, Cristobal will soon join him.
But that has nothing to do with my choice. No, I'm going to hold my nose and pick the Gators, but for a couple of reasons. One, there's been a lot of talk about Napier and Florida's tough schedule this year, and many people think the Gators are a bad team. In fact, they're just going to have a tough road. Another reason is that Miami struggled with turnovers last season, and while transfer QB Cam Ward is highly touted, he doesn't pay much attention to the football! Of the 200 QBs who averaged more than five pass attempts per game last year, Ward was 156th in whoopsie daisy rate (fumbles and interceptions per snap) with 2.56%. He's a danger with the ball. Given that this is his first start with his new team, and it's a loud, raucous environment, there's a good chance he'll miss a chance or two here. Pick: Florida +2.5 (+100)
This week's team totals
North Dakota State vs Colorado (Thursday): The weekday games covered in this week's column are mostly common sense. Regardless of how you feel about Deion Sanders and what's going on at Colorado, the fact is that Shedell Sanders is a talented QB and the offense is loaded with talent. While the overall excitement for Buffalo may not be in keeping with their final win total, this is a game they should win. This is not the dynasty that North Dakota State has been in recent years. They're still a good team, but they're not the dominant force they once were.
He's not called “Coach Prime” because he doesn't want to put on a show. In the season opener, at home, in a game the whole nation is watching, Colorado is going to put on a show. And if they get a chance to spice things up a little, they're going to spice things up. If either Sanders or Travis Hunter make it to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony in December, they'll need to post numbers to do so, in case the team's overall record isn't good enough. Prediction: Colorado Team Total Over 35.5 (-115)
What college football picks can you be confident about going into Week 1? Head to SportsLine to find out which team will win and cover the spread, powered by a proven computer model that's returned over $2,000 in profits since inception.
