The SMU Mustangs and Nevada Wolfpack will open the 2024 NCAA football season on Saturday at Mackey Stadium in Reno, Nev. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm ET (CBSSN). Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook's line on SMU vs. Nevada odds, plus our college football expert picks and predictions.
SMU kicks off a new era of football on Saturday in Reno, its first official game as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), a non-conference game of course, but still a pretty historic one.
The Mustangs went 11-3, including an AAC Championship, but lost to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Preston Stone returns under center after completing 59.9% of his passes for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. Stone previously suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the regular season finale against Navy.
Nevada will turn to head coach Jeff Choate, who was recently head coach at FCS powerhouse Montana State. He has a lot of work to do, but the Wolfpack's depth isn't completely empty. Running back Sean Dollars returns and running back Pat Gerwo, a transfer from Boston University, adds depth to the team. The defense was a disaster in 2023 and needs to improve dramatically. Facing a hot SMU offense in Week 0 will be a tough ask.
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SMU vs. Nevada odds
Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. For the complete list, visit the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds Hub. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
Money Line (ML): SMU -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) | Nevada +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600) Against the Spread (ATS): SMU -27.5 (-115) | Nevada +27.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
SMU vs. Nevada predictions and projections
prediction
SMU 38, Nevada 17
Money Line
SMU (-5000) is unlikely to falter against Nevada (+1600), a team that needs a lot of improvement. The Wolfpack are in big trouble, winning just four total games last year. Colin Kaepernick isn't coming through that door. Romeo Dubs isn't coming through that door. Nate Burleson isn't coming through that door.
But you can't bet 50 times your expected return on any bet, season opener or not, because that would be too much risk for a small enough reward: you'd have to risk $100 for just a $2 reward.
avoid.
Preventing the spread
It's a bit of a bold bet, but I'd go with Nevada +27.5 (-105).
SMU -27.5 (-115) boasts a strong offense that averaged 38.7 points per game last season, but the defense isn't very good and Nevada has depth at skill positions and at center that should get it in at least the low teens, so it's hard to imagine the Mustangs suddenly getting into the low 40s.
Over/Under
The trend is UNDER 55.5 (-110), but will play half a unit at most.
Playing the under in SMU games early in 2023 made sense. They had low scoring totals in five of their first six regular season games before their offense really took off late in the season. They managed five overs in their final six games with center Stone healthy. Their offense only managed 20.0 PPG in the AAC title game and bowl, but that was without Stone.
For Nevada, the under won four of its first five games last season. USC beat Nevada by 66 points in the 2023 season opener in Los Angeles on Sept. 2. But Nevada has held opponents to 33 points or less in four of its first five games despite abysmal defense. SMU will score, but it's unlikely to get into the 40-point range.
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