“When it comes to Trump's focus on rebalancing alliances, Southeast Asian countries are unlikely to be an option.”
Patton's assessment is one of several in a collection of analyses compiled by the Lowy Institute on how a second Trump term would affect global issues such as the Asia-Pacific region, climate change and the war in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stands alongside then-US President Donald Trump during discussions in the Joint Security Area of the Demilitarized Zone, south of the military demarcation line that separates North and South Korea, on June 30, 2019. Photo: TNSFew But people in Southeast Asia will be worried about the end of IPEF because it did not provide any trade market access like the CPTPP and was a setback in negotiations, she said.
“When it comes to the economy and trade, which are top priorities for Southeast Asia, expectations in the region will be low. The best-case scenario for U.S. economic engagement under a Trump administration would be a status quo with a thriving U.S. private sector but little support for economic statecraft.”
As an instigator of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, Patton said Trump could also become more protectionist toward countries such as Vietnam that have steadily growing trade surpluses with the U.S.
Such protectionist stance from Washington towards Asian countries is not new: Washington and Tokyo came close to a trade war in the 1990s when the US tried to reduce its trade deficit with Japan and the US trade delegation demanded quotas on sensitive products such as Japanese cars.
Regarding China, Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, said Chinese leaders would likely see this as a political advantage because a Trump victory in November's election could further diminish U.S. influence. Analysts outside the Lowy Institute have reached similar conclusions.
VinFast's electric car factory in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam could face protectionism from Washington if Donald Trump is re-elected. Photo: Getty Images
“Trump's chaos undermines the democratic brand overall and strengthens China's demand for an alternative to the world order that the United States has built and led,” McGregor said.
But Trump is not a predictable figure and even the possibility of his victory is stoking anxiety in Beijing, he added.
“China sees Trump as corrupt and transactional. It thought it could exploit all of these qualities, and indeed it did so during the early days of its first term after being elected president in late 2016. But China's approach has not worked in the long term,” he said.
“The idea of a grand deal between the US and China brokered by self-proclaimed master negotiator Trump seems as distant as ever. He tried to do just that with North Korea during his first term but failed.”
Meanwhile, Japan has expressed a positive attitude towards Trump's return, but South Korea remains ambivalent about such an outcome after Trump made no secret of his disdain for traditional allies, McGregor said.
02:11
Trump announces heavy tariffs on Chinese-made cars in first speech since assassination attempt
Trump announces heavy tariffs on Chinese-made cars in first speech since assassination attempt
According to McGregor, Japan knew it could not contain China without the support of the U.S., especially when Washington demonstrated a strong deterrent force against Beijing. A Democratic victory could also be favorable for Japan, given that Vice President Kamala Harris would continue the Biden administration's tough foreign policy toward China if she wins the election.
Sam Roggeveen, director of the institute's international security program, said the Orcas nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the United States and the UK is widely seen as a way to counter China but could be at risk.
Roggeveen said some Trump campaign officials were concerned the deal would put pressure on U.S. shipbuilding capabilities to meet both U.S. and Australian submarine needs.
He noted that Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official during Trump's first term, said it would be “extremely reckless to give up the submarines without firm assurances that they could be used at the discretion of the United States.”
