Welcome to the fifth annual edition of my pride and joy every summer: the preseason MAC Manifesto.
Time seems to slow down in August waiting for the start of the college football season. Then, without fail, the season flies by (unless you’re having a tough season — then it feels like an eternity).
Before we know it, we’ll be monitoring the weather and injury reports ahead of a November weekday Mid-American melee in Kalamazoo, Michigan.
When evaluating the MAC — more than any other conference in college football — expect the unexpected. Remember when Central Michigan went from 1-11 (0-8 in the MAC) to a conference title appearance in 2019?
How about in 2021 when Northern Illinois made that accomplishment look like child’s play after the Huskies became the first college football team ever to win a conference championship following a winless season?
Eight different teams have played in the previous five conference championship games, and every team has made an appearance since 2015 except for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are still seeking that elusive first-ever appearance.
The talent disparity from top to bottom just isn’t as significant as other conferences, and that gap seems to be closing in the new landscape of college football where MAC teams are losing key contributors each year at an accelerated rate.
Consequently, I rarely see any value at the top of the conference odds board in the MAC. This year is no exception.
If you’re curious about my past results in this piece, I started off with some good fortune in the first edition of the Manifesto back in 2020 with Ball State 9-1 getting to the window.
Things didn’t go as smoothly the following two seasons, but both Kent State 14-1 and Ohio 25-1 reached the title games in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
I’m still bitter about the Golden Flashes going down as a favorite in the title game to Northern Illinois — the ultimate horseshoe that season. I’m also fully convinced the Bobcats would’ve won their first MAC title since 1968 if quarterback Kurtis Rourke hadn’t suffered a late-season injury.
However, the MACtion gods returned me a favor last winter with Miami (OH) 8-1 which got the job done in the title game with a backup quarterback after Brett Gabbert was lost for the year with another injury. All hail the 2023 Spreadhawks.
So, who will win the MAC in 2024? Spin a wheel.
In all seriousness, your guess is as good as mine in a league where no team has repeated as champion since 2012. Can Miami (OH) buck that trend? That seems like a good place to start with the RedHawks favored to win the MAC in 2024.
Before we dive into each team, I want to quickly touch on three other topics.
The MAC has done away with the divisions, so say “sayonara” to the East and West. Instead, they have instituted four three-team pods to maintain existing rivalries. Each team will play the other two in their pod on an annual basis and then a rotating cast of others, so there’s certainly more of a lottery feel to the schedule. If you’re curious, the pods are as follows: (CMU, WMU, EMU), (Toledo, BGSU, NIU), (Ball State, Ohio, Miami Ohio) and (Akron, Buffalo, Kent State).Just like every year, I will have an even more in-depth look at every team before the start of league play in the midseason MAC Manifesto, where I can really break down each roster from an advanced analytic perspective in addition to schematic changes and injury impacts.Most importantly, make sure you shop around for the best number before placing any wagers. That should always be the case, especially when it comes to futures markets, which can have much greater price discrepancies from book to book.
2024 MAC Odds
TeamOddsMiami (OH)+240Toledo+330Bowling Green+550Western Michigan+650Northern Illinois+700Central Michigan+1200Ohio+1500Eastern Michigan+3600Ball State+4600Buffalo+4600Akron+6500Kent State+12000Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel
Click any logo to navigate directly to analysis for that team.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
MAC: +240 · Win Total: 7.5
Can Brett Gabbert Stay Healthy?
Despite losing starting quarterback Brett Gabbert to injury (broken leg) for a second straight season, the RedHawks won their fourth-ever MAC title on the backs of a stingy defense and elite special teams that I had ranked as the top unit in the entire country. Now they sit only one behind leaders Northern Illinois, and believe it or not, Marshall.
Can head coach Chuck Martin, who enters his 11th season at the helm — tied with EMU’s Chris Creighton for longest-tenured coach in the MAC — lead his team to back-to-back titles? Working in their favor is the fact that the roster wasn’t hit as hard as many others in the MAC (top-50 in returning production), and there’s a lot of continuity on the staff.
However, they also didn’t add a ton from the portal.
I highly doubt the special teams can repeat that same level in 2024, especially after losing — or should I say, had stolen? — Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Graham Nicholson to Alabama in the offseason to replace NFL-bound Will Reichard (who, as a sidebar, looks tremendous in camp) in addition to their coordinator.
It’ll still be solid in the underrated third phase, but the RedHawks will likely need more offensive production if they want to repeat. I don’t think they can count on winning two games due to blocked field goals once again.
In order to do so, they’ll need Gabbert to get back healthy and then stay on the field throughout conference play with backup Aveon Smith no longer in the mix.
Gabbert, who will line up under center in Oxford for a sixth consecutive season to become the first quarterback in college football history to do so, last started and finished a season healthy back in 2021 when he tossed 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
When healthy, he’s the best quarterback in the league by a wide margin in a year when the level under center is way down. That’s a nice trump card to have in your pocket.
There are other questions on the offensive side of the ball with top running back Rashad Amos and wideout Gage Larvadain transferring out to a pair of SEC schools, which just highlights their talent level.
Along with Kenny Tracy (although not on initial depth chart), Martin hopes Purdue transfer Dylan Downing can help vill the void left by Amos in the backfield.
There’s still some returning skill positions, but an alpha will need to emerge at wide receiver, which is my biggest concern for this offense outside of Gabbert’s health.
Gabbert likes to throw deep, so he needs that reliable No. 1 threat. Maybe that player is Arizona State transfer Andre Johnson.
Fortunately for the RedHawks, tight end Jack Coldiron is back in the mix after suffering a season-ending injury right out of the gate last season. He’s an important piece in the Miami offense, which likes to move the tight end around in its usual 11 personnel sets.
The tight end room was also improved via the portal with a pair of promising additions, including Preston Daniel from Florida State.
On the plus side, the offensive line looks like the strength of the team with four starters back, led by a pair of multi-year starters at tackle in Reid Holskey and Will Jados. Center Kolby Borders will move from center to right guard, paving the way for the lone new starter in the middle in Charlie Nank. The pass protection could improve a bit from a group that enjoyed great health fortune last year.
But again, it’s all about Gabbert staying healthy.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami (OH) runs a base 4-2-5 without a ton of bells and whistles. Last year, the super-experienced group just didn’t miss tackles and always seemed to be in the right place at the right time.
The defensive line returns two of its four starters in Kobe Hilton on the inside and stud pass rusher Brian Ugwu off the edge, but Austin Ertl and Caiden Woullard (transferred to Oklahoma) will be missed opposite Ugwu.
There should be a drop-off to their replacements, and this is still an overall undersized unit when it comes to defending the run.
The strength of this group comes at linebacker with reigning MAC Defensive Player of the Year Matt Salopek and Ty Wise, who both do a tremendous job of cleaning everything up on the second level. However, they will miss do-everything nickel/safety Michael Dowell, who signed as a free agent with the Bengals.
The secondary has two others to replace in top cornerback Yahsyn McKee and three-year starting safety Jacquez Warren (transferred) — who, like Dowell, both played over 700 snaps last season.
Raion Strader flashed as a freshman all season. Can he take that next step as the true No. 1 corner? He’ll need to do just that because the second cornerback spot is certainly a big question mark, as is one of the other safety spots next to Eli Blakey. The depth is also super shaky on the back end.
Overall, I think this defense takes a step back. It has some looming negative regression in a few key areas and had extremely good injury luck last year.
Plus, I have more questions than answers in a much more inexperienced secondary that’s asked to do so much in this scheme. The depth pieces from last year will be asked to make a substantial leap.
So, not to beat a dead horse, but with the defense, special teams, and overall team health more than likely regressing a bit, can Gabbert stay healthy and find a connection with an alpha receiver to make up for some of those drop-offs with a much more productive offense? That will likely determine whether or not Miami (OH) gets back to Detroit to defend its title.
Miami (OH) Schedule Analysis & Pick
The schedule gets a bit tougher for the RedHawks this season. They essentially just replaced lowly Delaware State with Northwestern in the nonconference, which will also include rematches with rival Cincinnati and UMass, as well as a trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame.
In league play, they face the top three other contenders in Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois with only the latter coming at home. Plus, they won’t benefit from seeing either Akron or Buffalo. They also must face Toledo, EMU and Ball State on the road with each of those opponents all coming off bye weeks.
Ultimately, in the new pod system, Miami replaced Akron, Buffalo, and Western Michigan with Central Michigan, NIU and EMU. The first group won only nine games last year, while the second doubled that output with 18 victories.
Miami (OH)’s Projected Win Total: 7.55
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
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Toledo Rockets
MAC: +330 · Win Total: 8.5
Can the Rockets Reload?
Toledo does have coaching continuity and the top recruiting class in the MAC as usual, but I’m not the biggest Jason Candle fan (maybe there’s a reason his golf handicap is so good?), and he must deal with a lot of turnover on a roster that ranks outside the top 100 in returning production on both sides of the ball.
That starts with the star-studded duo in the backfield of quarterback Dequan Finn (starting at Baylor) and running back Peny Boone (transferred to UCF).
Jacquez Stuart is a capable backup and excellent kick returner, but Boone will be missed after rushing for 1,400 yards at a gaudy 7.2 yards-per-carry clip.
The pass-catching room is the best in the conference with everybody returning, led by sixth-year senior Jerjuan Newton and tight end Anthony Torres.
The question becomes, can Tucker Gleason take the next step as a passer?
I think he has enough experience (fourth year in the system with 350 career snaps) and tools (more mobile than you might think) to get the job done — especially if he can improve his accuracy a touch.
However, that’s assuming he gets protection. That’s the biggest question on this entire roster, as the Rockets must replace all five offensive linemen who paved the way for an offense that ranked in the top 20 in rushing yards and allowed the fewest sacks per game in the entire country.
The two biggest losses are four-year starting left tackle Nick Rosi and three-year starting left guard Vinny Sciury (transferred to Texas Tech).
Toledo will need to find the right mix between a collection of holdover depth pieces, inexperienced Power 5 transfers and experienced transfers from the FCS and JUCO ranks. There’s certainly a lot of uncertainty with this group with 0 returning FBS starts, which ultimately may hold Toledo back from reaching Detroit — although the floor is pretty high with this team.
On the other side of the ball, I love Toledo’s blended 4-2-5 defense.
It’s so well-schooled under coordinator Vince Kehres, who will utilize a majority of quarters coverage on the back end with aggressive man-to-man from each of his cornerbacks. The safeties also play close to the box, especially on early downs, where they can be deployed to stuff the run and adequately cover RPOs.
Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Toledo Rockets’ offensive line.
It’s a well-oiled machine when the cornerbacks can blanket opposing receivers, which we saw last year thanks in large part to lockdown cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who the Eagles took in the first round of the NFL Draft. He’s irreplaceable.
The Rockets also must replace fellow corners RJ Delancy (Wisconsin) and Chris McDonald (signed with the Bucs).
From the safety position, the Rockets must replace Nate Bauer and Zachary Ford — two guys who had an abundance of snaps in this defense over the past three seasons. However, with Maxen Hook and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren back in the fold, the concern there isn’t as great as it is at cornerback.
The defensive line and linebacker positions also must replace some key losses, including:
linebacker Dallas Gant (signed with the Vikings)defensive tackle Judge Culpepper (signed with the Bucs)defensive end Terrance Taylordefensive end Adrian Woliver
It’s still one of the best defensive lines in the MAC, led by Darius Alexander clogging up the interior, but others will need to step up to generate pressure to fill the void left by Culpepper and company.
The defense has a lot of similarities to what you see at Pittsburgh. It works best when the front can generate pressure and the corners can man up on islands since the way to best attack this defense is to take deep, vertical shots.
The drop-off could be significant from a unit that ranked in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Pass if they can’t find reliable players in man coverage. First-round cornerbacks don’t just grow on trees in the MAC.
Toledo Schedule Analysis & Pick
While Toledo will have to deal with an incessant amount of roster turnover, it at least has a very forgiving schedule that ranks as one of the 10 easiest in all of college football.
It also helps to start out with two easy games at home in UMass and Duquesne to help work out some of the kinks with so many fresh faces.
The Rockets will then face Mississippi State and Western Kentucky on the road — two tough but not impossible contests — before starting league play.
In the new pod system, they replaced Western Michigan and Ball State with Ohio and Akron, which is a net positive. They do face each of the other four best teams in the conference, but three come at home, which could go a long way in securing their spot in the MAC Championship game.
As a result, the league road slate is extremely manageable with meetings vs. Akron, Buffalo, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. It doesn’t get much more painless than that.
Toledo’s Projected Win Total: 7.85
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
Bowling Green Falcons
MAC: +550 · Win Total: 6.5
Can Loeffler Take the Next Step
It was a rough start for head coach Scot Loeffler, who took over for a program that had fallen off hard after winning two MAC titles in 2013 and 2015.
In the three years prior to Loeffler taking over, the Falcons had gone 9-27. Things didn’t get any better in his first three years with the same exact winning percentage (7-21 overall).
However, there have been signs of life the previous two years with back-to-back trips to the Quick Lane Bowl.
Even more promising is the fact that Bowling Green finished the year 5-1 in MAC play with the lone loss coming by a single point against Toledo in a game it should’ve won.
In fairness, those five wins did come against the five worst teams in the MAC — which finished with a 14-46 record — and a +8 turnover margin.
Can Bowling Green now take another step forward with a super-experienced offense and an aggressive defense? I think it has a good shot.
I’m not the biggest fan of Connor Bazelak, but the former Indiana and Missouri transfer is one of the better quarterbacks in the league in his fifth year as an FBS starter. He also did start to play much better as the season progressed in 2023.
That’s a nice safety blanket to have in a league with very murky quarterback situations. The depth is solid too (another luxury most MAC teams don’t have) with the experienced Camden Orth, who will likely have specific packages throughout the season.
At running back, bell cow Terion Stewart returns from injury after an explosive 2023 season. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be one of the best backs in the MAC.
However, it’s worth noting BGSU will need to replace Ta’Ron Keith (transferred to USF), who will be especially missed in the passing game.
The top three wide receivers do depart, but none are monumental losses outside of the inconsistent OJ Hilaire (signed with the Falcons).
While much less experienced, there’s actually more upside in this room this year with a pair of P4 transfers in RJ Garcia II (Kansas State) and Malcolm Johnson (Auburn). They have only 12 career starts, but the talent has been upgraded on an offense that will frequently use sets with only two wideouts on the field.
The most important piece of the passing game last year was tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who does come back with a potential future in the NFL. He should have another monster season.
I also expect a major jump in production along the offensive line — which really struggled last year — with four starters who are now all upperclassmen coming back.
If Merrimack transfer Nick Reimer can make the leap from FCS and hold down the left tackle spot, the overall pass protection should improve.
Defensively, Bowling Green has one of the more aggressive units in the league. It’s extremely Havoc-minded. The hope is that turnover regression doesn’t hit hard and it’s more a product of its style.
Along the defensive line, everybody else is back in the mix, making this an extremely strong and deep front.
The second level will have to replace two very productive pieces in linebackers Darren Anders and Cashius Howell (transferred to Texas A&M). That duo accounted for 14 of BGSU’s 33 sacks.
The rest of the group is back, as is Demetrius Hardamon — a menace off the edge who can compensate for some of those lost sacks returns after returning from injury. This unit should still be solid but likely takes a step back after losing its top two.
The secondary also must deal with a few key losses in nickel Davon Ferguson and stud cornerback Jalen Huskey (transferred to Maryland). One lockdown corner will still be in the fold in Jordan Oladokun, but transfers from Cincinnati, FAU and Northern Arizona will need to help fill the departed roles.
Safety has far fewer questions with the return of Darius Lorfils, Patrick Day and Trent Simms — although the latter will be moved to outside linebacker with the addition of former multi-year starter CJ Brown from Northern Illinois.
The bottom line is the secondary should still be a strong suit even with more questions than last year at cornerback.
Lastly, the special teams are shaky, which I’m a bit worried about. It would help if they could find some more juice in the return game.
Bowling Green Schedule Analysis & Pick
You can expect a 2-2 start in the nonconference with home games against Fordham and Old Dominion bookending road dates at Penn State and Texas A&M.
In league play, the path gets a bit tougher than last year, as the Falcons will replace Ohio and Buffalo with Central Michigan and Northern Illinois.
While BGSU does get the benefit of facing both Kent State and Akron, it will have to face each of the four other real contenders in the MAC. However, three of those games come at home (at Toledo the exception) with a potential huge swing game at home against conference favorite Miami (OH) in the regular-season finale.
With a promising defense and upper-echelon situation at quarterback, I think Bowling Green can take that next step to true contender status in the MAC.
As usual, I don’t see any value in the top of the board with Miami (OH) and Toledo. I also don’t see any long shots worth considering in 2024, which leaves the three teams in the second tier — Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Bowling Green — worth exploring in my eyes.
I don’t have those teams separated by much from a power ratings perspective, but BGSU is the most intriguing option, especially when you consider the current prices and some of the questions I have with the other two, which I’ll touch on next.
Bowling Green Projected Win Total: 6.7
Stuckey’s Pick: Bowling Green to Win the MAC (+700)
Northern Illinois Huskies
MAC: +700 · Win Total: 6.5
QB Questions Loom Large
Northern Illinois has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde under head coach Thomas Hammock, so the Huskies have been a tough team to gauge on an annual basis.
One thing we do know is Rocky Lombardi (now with the Bengals) will no longer be under center, which leaves a gaping hole to fill. That’s been the story of the summer in DeKalb.
It has been a three-way competition behind last year’s backup Ethan Hampton (the most experienced option), an intriguing dual-threat incoming transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff in Jalen Macon, and the wild card — redshirt freshman Josh Holst.
Who will win the job? If I had to guess, the Huskies will probably start with Hampton, but we might not know until Week 1. It could be a fluid situation throughout the season with Macon potentially being a better fit for the offense they want to run if he can make the leap from FCS. Both are listed with an OR on the initial depth chart.
Whoever wins the job will certainly lean on experience in the backfield, led by first-team All-MAC running back Antario Brown and sidekick Gavin Williams in a run-first offense that utilizes a high frequency of two-tight end looks.
There’s also a pair of exciting pass-catching options with the electrifying Trayvon Rudolph and tight end Grayson Barnes — but other options on the perimeter are murky.
Along the offensive line, a strength in recent seasons, the Huskies must replace two studs in center Pete Nygra (transferred to Louisville) and right tackle Nolan Potter (signed by the Falcons).
Fortunately for them, the other three starters return and Logan Zschernitz returns from injury to fill in at center with over 2,000 career snap, while Evan Buss, who also has previous starting experience (978 career snaps) will take over at right tackle.
That said, this unit likely won’t be as sturdy as last year after losing its top two, which should put even more pressure on the quarterback decision and subsequent performance.
It’s worth noting the offense improved drastically last season after assistant Wesley Beschorner effectively took the reins of the offense in Week 5 after NIU started 1-3.
Over the first four weeks, the Huskies only averaged 15.8 points per game. That output almost doubled to 29 points per game over the last nine. And even if you remove contests against lowly Akron and Kent State, they still averaged 24.
The NIU defense is an interesting case study.
It’s a super-experienced group for a second-straight season with nine potential senior starters and the best depth it’s enjoyed in quite some time. Plus, it’s a unit that allowed only 21 points per game in 2023.
However, last year’s output may have been a bit fluky due to some of the quarterbacks it faced, including four backups and a couple of other completely inept passing offenses.
That said, outside of already likely losses against Notre Dame and NC State in addition to a road date with Miami (OH), the projected schedule is filled with opponents that have very shaky quarterback situations.
However, this still profiles as one of the better secondaries in the MAC with everybody returning to the mix outside of safety CJ Brown (transferred to Bowling Green), who was lost to a season-ending injury in the first month of the season.
The defensive line does return copious amounts of depth but also has to replace a pair of standouts in James Ester (signed with the Packers) and edge George Gumbs (transferred to Florida). I’m not sure the Huskies have the horses to replicate that same production up front.
On the second level of the base 4-2-5, they lose their two most productive linebackers in DaRon Gilbert (signed with the Lions) and Tyler Jackson. The Huskies will need Jaden Dolphin to have a bounce-back season after a down 2023 and hope an FCS transfer (SEMO) can step up in the middle.
I project a step back even with the return of almost everyone in the secondary and the fall camp emergence of redshirt freshman Santana Banner, who could steal a starting safety spot. The run defense is still a major concern.
Lastly, the special teams were bad last year, but at least everybody comes back. The kicking situation remains wobbly after a 13-of-22 field goal (2-of-7 beyond 40) performance last season.
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Northern Illinois Schedule Analysis & Pick
In the non-con, the Huskies do get UMass and Western Illinois at home but also must travel to NC State and Notre Dame. That’s likely a 2-2 start outside of MAC play.
Their league slate does get a bit harder in the new pod system this year. They will replace Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Kent State with Bowling Green, Buffalo and Miami (OH). NIU must also face each of the four other most realistic title contenders with three of those contests coming on the road (at WMU, at BGSU, at Miami Ohio).
While the floor should be relatively high with five easy home games (Western Illinois, UMass, Buffalo, Akron and CMU), those tough roadies might ultimately keep them out of Detroit.
The home game against Toledo after a trip to Bowling Green will likely make or break their season with three of the final five coming on the road, including trips to Western Michigan and Miami (OH).
This is an experienced squad that finished last season 6-3 with three one-possession losses — a promising sign heading into 2024.
However, there are just too many questions at quarterback, and the pieces they lost are going to be hard to replace. Throw in a potentially tad overrated defense and a tougher schedule, and I can’t get behind NIU at the current market price.
Northern Illinois’ Projected Win Total: 6.45
Stuckey’s Pick: Lean Under
Western Michigan Broncos
MAC: +650 · Win Total: 6.5
Is the Hype Warranted?
Despite a depressing 4-8 2023 season in which the Broncos only played a single one-possession game, some preseason hype has built up for the Broncos.
That stems from the experience coming back in a conference full of teams that don’t have that same luxury. WMU ranks in the top-15 nationally in returning production, which has driven some optimism in Kalamazoo in head coach Lance Taylor’s second season.
While the roster has continuity, two new coordinators arrive, including offensive coordinator Walt Bell and defensive coordinator Scott Power. I’m not too smitten with either hire.
The Broncos used three quarterbacks last season. And while two are gone, the one who eventually took over under center is back in Hayden Wolff, who should have the keys to the offense in 2024.
The former ODU starter has some help around him with the return of both backs, including Jalen Buckley, who ran for 1,00 yards as a freshman. He also has three of the top four receivers back, led by Kenneth Womack.
They also added a couple of intriguing pass-catchers through the portal, including NC State’s Chris Toudle, who could serve as an upgrade at tight end.
Along the offensive line, eight of the top 10 return, providing plenty of options to compensate for the loss of two starters. While the left side of the line remains more of a question, the center and right guard spots are in superb shape with Jacob Gideon and Addison West.
There’s even more returning production on defense, although star pass-rusher Marshawn Kneeland (drafted by the Cowboys) will be impossible to replace.
Three of the other starters up front are back, but three Power 4 transfers — a rarity in the MAC this season — could actually take this unit to the next level. The potential is there for a meteoric rise even without their pro.
The linebacker room also returns ample experience but it was a sterile group last season. A Purdue transfer could potentially help, but this unit has plenty to prove.
The secondary also features plenty of returning experience, although starting outside cornerback Keni-H Lovely (signed with the Bills) will be missed.
The special teams have perennially been one of the worst in the nation over the past few seasons, but there’s at last a new kicker and punter in town who provide some upside.
Western Michigan Schedule Analysis & Pick
The schedule is brutal to start with road games at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. However, if they can just get out of those games fairly healthy, things really start to ease up, starting with a home game against Bethune Cookman followed by a winnable trip to Marshall.
It’s the conference schedule that should excite Broncos fans the most. In the new pod system, they will replace Toledo, Miami and Ohio with Akron, Kent State and Buffalo this year. Lottery winners!
Not only do they avoid Toledo and Miami (OH), but they also host NIU with their toughest game coming the week after at Bowling Green. Their other six league games come against the bottom six projected teams.
If you listened to our early offseason podcast, I hinted at Western Michigan as my MAC sleeper. However, price matters, and the Broncos have taken significant money in the futures market since that episode.
I just can’t get there at the current price point, as returning experience can only do so much in one season for a team that struggled mightily in 2023 and added two new coordinators I don’t love.
Western Michigan Projected Win Total: 6.55
Stuckey’s Pick: Lean Over
Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Western Michigan quarterback Hayden Wolff.
Ohio Bobcats
MAC: +1500 · Win Total: 6.5
Talent Drain in Athens
I’d argue no program has been hit harder in the past couple of seasons by the changing landscape of college football than Ohio.
The Bobcats made the MAC Championship back in 2022 but have seen their roster decimated in the two seasons since. In this past offseason alone, they lost their stud quarterback, top two backs and over 90% of their receiving production.
In addition to the graduation of leading receiver Sam Wiglusz (who previously transferred in from Ohio State), just look at where these departures ended up:
QB Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)RB Sieh Bangura (Minnesota)WR Miles Cross (Indiana)WR Jacoby Jones (UCF)TE Tyler Foster (Oklahoma State)TE Will Kacmarek (Ohio State)
All six have new homes at P4 schools. And it’s not like Ohio is replacing that talent with similar-caliber players. In fact, head coach Tim Albin has instead had to reach deeper into FCS, D-II and the JUCO ranks to fill out his roster.
Maybe he strikes gold, but it more than likely will result in a significant downgrade from an offense that already struggled more than expected in 2023 with almost no explosiveness, especially after deep threat Jones went down with an injury in Week 3.
The offensive line at least has two starters back in the mix with center Parker Titsworth and right guard Christophe Atkinson, although neither is great.
The other three starters they must replace actually graded out as their top three offensive linemen in guard Kurt Danneker (medical retirement), and tackles Jay Amburgey (graduated) and Shedrick Rhodes (transferred to Rutgers). Those spots will be filled with a pair of depth pieces from last season, in addition to a transfer from Notre Dame College at left tackle.
I’d expect a very run-heavy offense with dual-threat quarterback and former UCF transfer Parker Navarro — who did start in the bowl victory — at the helm, especially with running back looking like one of the most promising positions from a unit that lost 11 primary contributors.
The new offensive coordinator does have a background in the Run-and-Shoot, so I’m curious to see if any of those concepts are incorporated.
Although, all bets are off if Navarro, who will likely take his fair share of hits, gets hurt with absolutely no depth behind him.
The picture isn’t much rosier on the other side of the ball with a defense — which was very good last season — that must replace nine of its top 12 tacklers and only returns one starter along its front seven in defensive end Bradley Weaver.
Losing defensive tackle Rayyan Buell to Colorado in the spring stung, but the biggest losses will be felt at linebacker with a pair of All-MAC contributors no longer in Athens in Bryce Houston and Keye Thompson (transferred to Pitt). That duo will be sorely missed in the second level where the Bobs will count on transfers from Bucknell and North Dakota.
In the secondary, Ohio must replace two very solid cornerbacks, Torrie Cox (drafted by the Bucs) and sixth-year senior Justin Birchette, in addition to safety Walter Reynolds, who led the defense in snaps in 2023. Two other safeties who saw plenty of action last year do return, but neither has very promising metrics. The Bobs really need cornerback Roman Parodie to find his 2021 form.
This roster is in rough shape after all of the recent turnover.
Not only does Ohio rank in the bottom 10 in returning production on both sides of the ball, but it also had to replace all of that talent drain (including all six All-MAC selections) with a plethora of players from lower levels or incoming freshmen.
That also hurts the depth, so any cluster injuries could prove fatal. Plus, the special teams units could suffer immensely.
Oh, and they will have to deal with two new coordinators — both internal hires — taking over in the spring.
I believe defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky, who did a very admirable job with this group last season, will be sorely missed after heading off to Memphis in the offseason.
Ohio Schedule Analysis & Pick
The one saving grace for Ohio in this rebuilding year is having one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country.
In nonconference play, it has two likely losses on the road at Syracuse and at Kentucky but does have a free win on paper against Morgan State and hosts a rebuilding South Alabama squad in a potential swing game for its bowl hopes.
It’s the conference slate where things get very easy.
While the Bobcats do have to face the top two teams in the league on the road in Toledo and Miami (OH), they likely weren’t winning those games anyway. Plus, not only do they avoid Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, but they also face each of the projected six bottom teams in the MAC.
The home slate is especially easy with games against Morgan State, South Alabama, Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. It doesn’t get much easier than that.
Despite the painless schedule, I still project the Bobcats to win right around 5.5 games, so I’ll happily bet under 6.5 wins at around -140. I would still play under 6 at plus money, but I generally tend to prefer to pay (when it makes sense mathematically) for that extra half-win around six.
With all of the turnover on the staff and roster with a significant step decline in talent across the board, I’ll happily pay to make the Bobs prove they can win seven games in 2024.
Ohio’s Projected Win Total: 5.5
Stuckey’s Pick: Ohio Under 6.5 (-140
Ball State Cardinals
MAC: +4600 · Win Total: 4.5
Now or Never for Neu
After a 4-8 season, Mike Neu’s seat may be getting warm in Muncie as the luster from that 2020 surprise MAC title has worn off.
This was a bet-on team for me in the second half of the season after it turned to a run-centric option-based offense with Kiael Kelly at quarterback and relied on a very stingy defense that got a few key pieces back from injury.
Don’t expect this version to look the same. Kelly moves to the defensive side of the ball, paving the way for Kadin Semonza to take over at quarterback.
Semonza did show some flashes against Georgia and Kentucky last year before Ball State decided to redshirt him, so the aerial attack will have more juice as the Cardinals look to go much more pass-heavy with a new playcaller.
The backfield will also have a new look after the graduation of 1,000-yard back Marquez Cooper. To backfill that loss, the Cardinals brought in a promising FCS transfer in Eastern Kentucky’s Braedon Sloan, who can also contribute in the passing game.
Elsewhere, stud tight end Tanner Koziol will be relied on heavily once again, although running mate Brady Hunt (injured last season) transferred to South Carolina. Two of the top three receivers also come back, including top wideout Qian Magwood.
Growing optimism surrounds the offensive line which returns four starters, including a now-healthy Ethan Crowe at center. One of the tackle spots remains a major question mark, so that will be worth monitoring after the loss of Corey Stewart, who transferred to Purdue.
Defensively, Ball State dealt with a plethora of injuries last year but really came on to end the year with some better health and the acclimation of depth pieces.
However, not only did they lose a very good defensive coordinator to Boise State, but most of those contributors are now gone with the Cardinals ranking in the bottom five nationally in defensive returning production.
Up front, all four starters are gone with three graduating and edge Tavion Woodard following his DC out west to potato country. That leaves Ball State with a very suspect group filled with inexperienced depth pieces and D2 transfers.
At linebacker, mainstays Cole Pearce and Clayton Coll (hurt last year) are no longer on campus. Keionte Newson does return after showing flashes stepping in for the injured Coll, but Joey Stemler will need to elevate his play in the other spot with the depth behind that pair looking very bleak.
In the secondary, all of the starters must be replenished, making this one of the least experienced groups on the team. Cornerback Thailand Baldwin did log 400 snaps in 2023, but he struggled mightily at times.
The group will be filled out with unknown depth pieces, a BYU transfer, a possible linebacker moving to safety and potentially even former quarterback Kelly.
The offense could be better, but the defense might get worse than the improvement we see on that side of the ball.
The special teams were horrid last year in large part due to inept return and coverage units. The Cardinals hope Kelly can provide juice as a kick returner and a new punter can produce better results in that department.
Schedule Analysis & Pick
It’s not an easy overall schedule with a difficult nonconference slate of games that includes road dates at James Madison, Vanderbilt and Miami, as well as a home game against Missouri State to open the season.
The structure of the schedule also does the Cardinals no favors. After the FCS opener, they hit the road for three straight and four of five, capped off by a road game at Kent State with the Flashes coming off of a bye. That’s not a great spot to face the easiest league opponent on the schedule.
They also have late bye weeks which might serve as a detriment to a team with so many new moving parts.
However, while they won’t face Akron, fortunately, the road games aren’t awful (CMU, Kent, Buffalo and Ohio) since they host three of the top four teams while avoiding Toledo.
Ball State Win Total Projection: 4.6
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
Central Michigan Chippewas
MAC: +1200 · Win Total: 5.5
Staff Shakeups in Mount Pleasant
Despite going 5-1 in one-possession games, Central Michigan finished 5-7 for its second straight losing season, which hadn’t happened previously in Mount Pleasant since 2012.
It’s been an interesting summer, to say the least. With offensive staff changes four weeks out from the season opener and offensive coordinator Paul Petrino off to South Alabama, head coach Jim McElwain will now call plays.
Additionally, there’s been a quarterback competition.
With Jase Bauer bolting to Sam Houston, Bert Emanuel Jr. went head-to-head with Iowa transfer Joey Labas for the QB1 job. They are very different quarterbacks. Emanuel possesses elite athleticism but lacks in the passing department, while Labas is more of a pure pocket passer.
Rumors have recently swirled that Emanuel has an injury, which would leave the job to Labas with the hope being he can shine after stepping down a level. But if it’s Emanuel, I’d expect a much heavier ground attack, especially with Petrino no longer in the mix.
(Update: Labas listed as QB1 with Emmanuel not on the initial depth chart.)
There’s at least plenty of returning production at the skill positions to work with. Both running backs Marion Lukes — who’s also a threat at kick returner — and Myles Bailey do return, as do the top three leading receivers (although 2023 leading receiver Tyson Davis is dealing with an injury).
The offensive line, which hasn’t been the same since losing two tackles to the NFL a few years ago, does return three starters and has plus size for a MAC school. However, they must improve in pass protection.
Additionally, two new guards will have to step up after the departures of top O-lineman Deiyantei Powell-Woods, as well as Keegan Smith. One of them should be Davis Heinzen, who will likely make the move from left tackle, which then opens up that spot.
There are some things to be optimistic about here if the quarterback position works out and the offensive line takes the next step.
Defensively, the Chips couldn’t stop a nosebleed last season due to a defensive line that couldn’t get home enough (outside the top 100 in most stats) and a secondary that suffered from far too many lapses.
Unfortunately for CMU, the front loses four of its primary contributors in Jacques Bristol, Maurice White, Robi Stuart and Quindario Lee. And like many other MAC teams, CMU is becoming more reliant on lower-level players to fill voids.
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Jim McElwain of the Central Michigan Chippewas.
That said, only Bristol had an overly productive season, and both Michael Heldman and Jason Williams return to the mix after logging over 1,000 combined snaps last season.
Central also lost top linebacker Kyle Moretti to San Diego State, but I’m not too concerned about the second level with ample returning depth. It’s all about whether or not they can generate pressure up front — a key to Robb Akey’s unit — in order to aid a secondary that has some questions outside of Donte Kent, who can really play all over.
Losing safety Trey Jones to Texas A&M especially hurts.
The hope is some of the transfers hit and positive regression comes from an injury and turnover perspective, as the Chips have forced only a paltry 10 and 8 turnovers over the past two years, respectively.
While they did lose a couple of contributing cornerbacks, nobody who left is irreplaceable. There should still be some level of confidence in Da’Raun McKinney (although, surprisingly, he’s listed as a backup on the initial depth chart) and safety Caleb Spann, along with Swiss Army knife Kent, who might be asked to play exclusively on the outside. but they could certainly use some help from the front four. The second cornerback spot is also a major question mark with true freshman Jalon Jackson potentially getting the first crack at the job.
The special teams have performed poorly over the past few years. While Lukes remains entrenched as a top-tier kick returner, the rest of the group has questions with a new punter and an iffy kicking situation (3-of-11 beyond 30 last year.)
Central Michigan Schedule Analysis & Pick
If CMU wants to get back to a bowl for the first time in three years, it will have to deal with a much harder league schedule that sees bottom feeders Buffalo and Akron get replaced by Bowling Green and Miami (OH).
In fact, the Chips have the hardest schedule in the MAC. They are the only team to face each of the projected top six and won’t benefit from facing any of the bottom three in Akron, Kent and Buffalo. Their easiest league opponent (EMU) also comes on the road. Lottery losers!
The only positive about the schedule is the nonconference gets a bit easier than last year. They essentially swap a road game at Notre Dame with one at FIU and a road game at South Alabama with a home matchup against San Diego State.
They also travel to Illinois in a likely loss and host FCS Central Connecticut State in a likely win. As a result, the schedule strength is bottom-20 nationally, but it’s not an easy road in league play if they want to play the role of sleeper.
Central Michigan Projected Win Total: 5.5
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
Eastern Michigan Eagles
MAC: +3600 · Win Total: 4.5
They Really Made a Bowl?
Somehow, someway, Eastern Michigan made a bowl game last year as one of the worst power-rated teams to ever accomplish that feat, which resulted in a beatdown 59-10 beatdown at the hands of South Alabama.
They weren’t overly lucky on the surface (2-2 in one-possession games, +1 turnover margin), and they did have horrendous injury luck on defense, but they beat an absolute cast of clowns en route to those six wins:
HowardAkron by three in double OTUMass by two after a TD drive in final minutesBall StateKent StateBuffalo
That group of wins includes a 6-6 FCS team and five FBS teams that went a combined 13-47 (21.7%). In those six games, EMU also benefited from a +8 turnover margin and outgained only one of those opponents (-353 yards net).
In fairness, Chris Creighton is a good coach who usually squeezes the most out of what he’s working with in Ypsilanti. His teams usually don’t beat themselves with penalties and have good special teams.
However, the latter is more of a question this year with a new coordinator, long snapper and return specialists. At least a very good punter returns in addition to a reliable kicker.
Last year, the offense was absolutely anemic.
With the top two quarterbacks gone, Creighton brought in Cole Snyder from Buffalo. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s certainly an upgrade over what they threw out there last season for an offense that only cleared 30 twice despite a farcical schedule. Austin Smith (now at his namesake Austin Peay) was not an FBS-caliber quarterback.
Snyder will have to work behind a rebuilt offensive line that lost its top three in stud tackle Brian Dooley (signed with the Titans), right guard Alex Howie and left guard Zack Conti.
Of the returning players, a couple may also swap positions, complicating matters. That includes the lone returning full-time starter Mickey Rewolinski moving from tackle to left guard. As a result, a Wayne State transfer and a redshirt sophomore with no career snaps might end up starting at both tackle spots. Not ideal!
The Eagles also lose stud back Samson Evans and his stablemate, Jaylon Jackson. They hope a pair of transfers from Weber State and NC State can fill in without much of a drop-off, but they only have six combined collegiate starts.
At wide receiver, Tanner Knue and Hamze El-Zayat will no longer be options on the outside, so transfers will need to step up with the projected starting group possessing one career FBS start.
It can’t get much worse than last year, but it’s hard to see this offense scaring many opponents.
Like the offense, it’s a bit of a rebuild on defense with both units ranking outside the top 100 in returning production.
The run defense got gashed all season with a very undersized front despite a pair of two excellent linebackers and strength of the team in Joe Sparacio and Chase Kline, who will need to be replaced by JT Killen (Coastal Carolina transfer) and James Djonkam (Arizona State transfer).
The defensive line does bring back a few contributors, headlined by Justin Jefferson off the edge and Peyton Price in the interior. However, once again, this group that lacks bulk can be pushed around and won’t get as much help from the linebackers.
The secondary could end up being the strength of the team despite losing starting cornerbacks Kempton Shine (Virginia) and Bennett Walker.
Daiquan White flashed in the slot as a true freshman with some outstanding underlying metrics. He’ll switch to the outside with Joshua Scott, last year’s projected starter who got hurt in Week 1, taking over in the slot.
Cameron Smith will be missed at one safety spot, but at least senior Quentavius Scandrett returns at the other. Plus, fellow senior David Carter Jr. has logged over 700 snaps albeit at very inconsistent levels.
This unit could hold its own if White makes a smooth transition and a pair of transfers in Dramarian McNulty (JUCO) and Bryce Llewelyn (Charleston Southern) can make the FBS jump without too many bumps.
That said, the pass defense might not matter much if teams can just run at will on the Eagles again.
Eastern Michigan Schedule Analysis & Pick
The Eagles will once again benefit from a laugher of a schedule that comes in as one of the 10 easiest in FBS.
From the top four teams, they avoid Northern Illinois and Bowling Green while getting to host Toledo and Miami (OH). They also get to face each of the bottom three in Kent State, Akron and Buffalo.
Overall, it’s a very manageable road MAC slate with Akron, Ohio, Western Michigan and Kent State.
Throw in a coin-flip at UMass to start the year and nonconference home games against Jacksonville State and St. Francis, and you can see the path for Creighton getting this bad roster back to a bowl.
Eastern Michigan’s Projected Win Total: 5.0
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bulls
MAC: +4600 · Win Total: 4.5
Return of the MAC
In a conference full of head0coaching stability this season, Buffalo is the lone exception with Pete Lembo taking over in western New York after multiple stops as special teams coordinator following a fairly successful stint as Ball State’s head coach from 2011-15.
At the bare minimum, Lembo should help the Bulls field a much more competent special teams unit, which has been an issue in recent seasons, to say the least. He did bring in a number of new contributors to help put a band-aid on some of last year’s warts.
However, I’m not sure how much he and a brand new staff (including a first-time defensive coordinator) can do for an offense that has a laundry list of question marks with their quarterback, top two backs and top-five receivers all needing to be replaced.
The incoming transfer and recruiting classes are also pretty underwhelming for a team that ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in returning experience.
After quarterback Cole Snyder transferred intra-conference to Eastern Michigan, Buffalo brought in Old Dominion transfer Jack Shields to compete for the quarterback job. However, it appears CJ Ogbonna will get the nod as QB1 to kick off the season, but that could be a very fluid situation.
Ogbonna did see some game action last year but more as a runner in certain packages. He remains extremely limited as a passer after completing just 50% of his passes at SEMO before transferring to Buffalo, which might not gel with new offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude’s system.
Patenaude had the tough task of rebuilding Georgia Tech’s offense from scratch after transitioning from the triple option. Well, this assignment isn’t much easier.
Center Isaiah Wright — UB’s best lineman — transferred to Maryland, but four of the other five have starting experience. The problem is the advanced metrics of that returning quartet aren’t very promising, and there’s a glaring hole at left tackle.
Every position on the offense has questions.
Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Buffalo Bulls wide receiver Javien Cuff.
I’m not sure the Bulls have a quality starting quarterback on the roster, running back should take a step back, the pass-catching room will be completely reliant on transfers, and while the offensive line has the most experience of any group, there are big potential holes.
Defensively, there’s a bit more to work with for new coordinator Joe Bowen, who comes in after spending time as an assistant at Miami (OH). His specialty is linebackers, but that’s probably the position he’s least worried about (even after losing Joe Andreessen — now with the Buffalo Bills) with Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock returning to man the second level.
The defensive line has much more uncertainty with three starters graduating. C.J. Bazile returns at one defensive end spot, but Max Michel and Daymond Williams in particular will be sorely missed, in particular. The interior still has some experience led by George Wolo (who I like), but Buffalo will need some FCS transfers to make a smooth transition to fill out the edge.
The secondary loses its best player in Devin Grant to Syracuse, but safety Marcus Fuqua has a ton of experience, and cornerback Charles McCartherens flashed as a freshman. That’s a decent foundation for a group that has some battle scars.
It’s just all about whether or not someone can emerge at the other corner and safety spots.
Buffalo Schedule Analysis & Pick
Finally some good news for Lembo. The schedule is a joke. It’s one of the five easiest in the country, including a laughable nonconference group of opponents (outside of a sure loss at Missouri) that includes Lafayette, UMass and UConn.
In the new pod system, Buffalo replaces CMU, Miami (OH) and Bowling Green with WMU, NIU and Ball State this season. That’s a net positive.
Not only do they avoid the RedHawks and Falcons, but they face six of the other seven worst teams in the MAC. That means there’s realistically eight winnable games on the schedule:
vs. Lafayettevs. UMassat UConnat Ohioat Akronvs. Ball Stateat Eastern Michiganvs. Kent State
This is the definition of a bad team with a good schedule. And don’t sleep on Lembo’s potential value-add on special teams, which could end up deciding a few coin-flips in those winnable games.
Buffalo’s Projected Win Total: 5.4
Stuckey’s Pick: Lean Over
Akron Zips
MAC: +6500 · Win Total: 3.5
Can the Zips Avoid Overtime?
The Zips went 2-10 in 2023, but there were signs of life. Amazingly, they went 0-3 in overtime against Indiana, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan, leading to a 2-5 record in one-possession games. They fielded a much more competitive team than years prior.
Unfortunately, head coach Joe Moorhead heads into Year 3 of this rebuild having to deal with significant roster turnover with Akron ranking outside the top-100 in returning production with the greatest losses coming on offense.
With DJ Irons and Jeff Undercuffler moving on at quarterback, former NC State and Cal transfer Ben Finley won the job in fall camp. The hope is he can shine at this level, but without much mobility, he will need protection from an offensive line that has been in a state of poverty for years.
They lose a number of starters, but five do at least have some starting experience (including a couple of freshmen who got thrown to the wolves in 2023) in addition to a few lower-level transfers, but this remains a sore spot for Akron.
The Zips must also replace their top two pass-catchers and starting tight end. Alex Adams will return from an injury, but this isn’t a collective to get overly excited about.
Lastly, Akron will have to find a replacement for their best offensive player in running back Lorenzo Lingard, who did as much as you can ask (1,000 total scrimmage yards) behind a defunct offensive line. Akron did bring in a pair of P5 transfers, hoping to strike gold like it did with Lingard, who came from Florida, but neither looks to have the same upside.
On the other side of the ball, Akron’s 4-2-5 defense, which was pretty underrated last year for such a poor team, doesn’t have to deal with such drastic roster turnover.
There are some decent pieces to work with, led by defensive end CJ Nunnally, linebacker Bryan McCoy and nickel Darrian Lewis.
The problem is the entire unheralded secondary must be replenished after a pair of primary contributors graduated and a trio of others transferred in:
Safety Kerry Martin (NC State)Cornerback Tyson Durant (Washington State)Safety Corey Thomas Jr. (Virginia)
There’s a reason those three were targeted by power programs. There’s still some residual experience at cornerback, but incoming transfers will make or break this defensive backfield.
If the pieces fit, this defense is good enough to hold down some of the inferior offenses Akron will face on its schedule. The much bigger questions are on the other side of the ball.
Additionally, don’t expect any help from the special teams.
Akron Schedule Analysis & Pick
Sadly for Akron, the schedule does it no favors. It’s daunting for a MAC school, starting with three of its first four on the road against Ohio State, Rutgers and South Carolina.
At least a home game against Colgate comes in Week 3 as a bit of a reprieve, but depth could certainly be tested after that September to not remember.
In MAC play, the Zips replace Central Michigan and Miami with Western Michigan and Toledo (a wash) but still face three of the other top four in the league.
The Zips do face Kent State on the road in addition to Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at home in back-to-back weeks following a bye, which mark their three most winnable games in addition to the early-season FCS bout.
Akron’s Projected Win Total: 3.35
Stuckey’s Pick: Pass
Kent State Golden Flashes
MAC: +12000 · Win Total: 2.5
Nowhere To Go But Up
Kent State was a bad football team in 2023. It went 0-11 against FBS competition with only one of the losses coming by single digits against Akron.
The struggles were expected for first-year head coach Kenni Burns, who basically inherited a brand new roster that amazingly had zero returning starters on offense after head coach Sean Lewis left for Colorado. That was essentially Year 0 for Burns, so things can’t get any worse in 2024.
The experience bump alone should at least lead to a more competitive team and an extra couple of wins — although there are two new coordinators in town.
Nothing went right last year for an offense that finished dead last in points per game.
The offensive line had only five returning total starts heading into last year. They now have five returning starters from a group that got thrown into the fire last season.
Things were never going to go well with three freshmen (two true) starting up front, which put each of the three quarterbacks they tried in a tough spot. Two of those options are back with Devin Kargman winning the job in fall camp.
Kargman will at least have one explosive weapon back in Chrishon McCray in addition to slot Luke Floriea.
Plus, leading rusher Gavin Garcia returns in the backfield along with former Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas, who had a decent 2021 season with the Gophers, now eligible.
There are some pieces to work with, but this will still be a bad offense, obviously.
Kent State’s defense didn’t fare much better last year.
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It couldn’t generate any pressure up front, averaging only one sack per game. Only one defender had multiple sacks in defensive tackle CJ West, who transferred to Indiana in the spring. That’s a big blow to this group’s chances of pushing those pressure numbers north.
That lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks put plenty of stress on the back end, which actually held up reasonably well all things considered. Unfortunately for the Flashes, that unit will have to be completely rebuilt with the losses of both starting cornerbacks and safety Bryce Sheppert.
That trio, which led the defense in snaps in 2023, will need to be replaced by holdover depth pieces and transfers with San Diego State cornerback Dallas Branch being the most intriguing name of that bunch.
They also lose three contributors at linebacker, but there’s still some returning experience after they dealt with a number of injuries. Plus, Khalib Johns will return from injury.
Unlike the offense, the defense can’t rely on a simple year-over-year bump due to the returning experience, ranking in the bottom 20 nationally in that department. They must rebuild their most productive group and replace their best player up front.
In the third phase, the special teams should actually be decent for MAC standards.
Kent State Schedule Analysis & Pick
Outside of a home game against St. Francis, the nonconference schedule is vicious with road dates against Pitt, Tennessee and Penn State.
There’s a chance the Golden Flashes come out of the first month bruised and battered, which could have a lasting impact in league play, where they replace Northern Illinois with Western Michigan from last season.
Fortunately, they do avoid Toledo and Northern Illinois. The hardest games come on the road, which is actually a positive in my eyes for such a poor team like Kent State, which likely would’ve lost to those opponents regardless.
You could argue there are five home games on the schedule that aren’t completely out of reach against St. Francis, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Ohio and Akron.
Kent State’s Projected Win Total: 3.15
Stuckey’s Pick: Lean Over
Stuckey’s Favorite MAC Futures & Win Totals for 2024
Favorite Win Total: Ohio Under 6.5 WinsFavorite Future: Bowling Green +700MAC Championship Prediction: Bowling Green Over Miami (OH)
Good luck this season — and don’t forget to keep your eyes peeled for my annual midseason MAC Manifesto prior to the start of weeknight MACtion.
