Visualisation of the situation around 3700 BC. Credits: Hofheim City Magistrate; LEIZA-Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie, Architectura Virtualis 2020 www.leiza.de/kapellenberg
Since the end of the last ice age, human population growth has been uneven, characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by periods of rapid decline. The reasons behind these fluctuations are still only partially understood.
Previous research by CSH scientists Peter Turchin and Daniel Conder, along with an international team, has demonstrated that social conflict, rather than or in addition to environmental factors, may have had a major impact on these patterns. Now, they have added another piece to the puzzle.
Wars and conflicts not only cause direct casualties, but also create an atmosphere of suffering and fear. This fear influenced where and how people settled, which may have had a major impact on the development of European populations, as shown in a study published in the Royal Society journal Interface.
Escape and overpopulation
“Globally, scientists have extensively studied and debated the presence and role of prehistoric conflict, but its impact on population numbers and more remains difficult to estimate,” explains Daniel Condor from the CSH. “The picture is further complicated by potential indirect effects, such as people leaving their homes or avoiding certain areas out of fear.”
The study suggests that these indirect effects of conflict could have caused significant long-term demographic changes in non-state societies such as Neolithic Europe (c. 7000 BC to 3000 BC).
“Our models show that fear of conflict led to population declines in potentially dangerous areas, leading people to concentrate in safer places, such as on hilltops, where overpopulation could lead to higher mortality and lower birth rates,” Conder explains.
Consistent with archaeological evidence
Ongoing threats will prevent settlement of much of the remaining land. “The results of our simulation study are in good agreement with empirical evidence from archaeological field investigations, for example the Late Neolithic site of Kapellenberg near Frankfurt, which dates to around 3700 BC,” said co-author Detlef Groenenborn of the Leibniz Centre for Archaeology (LEIZA) in Mainz, Germany.
“There are many examples of agricultural land being temporarily abandoned as groups retreated to more defensible locations and invested heavily in extensive defensive systems such as walls, palisades and ditches.”
“The concentration of people in specific, often well-defended locations may have exacerbated wealth inequalities and given rise to political structures that legitimized these differences,” adds Peter Turchin of the CSH. “Thus, the indirect effects of conflict may also have played an important role in the emergence of larger political units and early states.”
Complexity science meets archaeology
To simulate the demographics of Neolithic Europe, the researchers developed a computational model. To test the model, they used a database of archaeological sites and analyzed radiocarbon dates from different locations and time periods, with the assumption that this reflects the scale of human activity and, ultimately, population numbers.
“This allows us to explore the typical amplitudes and timescales of population growth and decline across Europe,” explains Conder, “and our goal was to mirror these patterns in our simulations.”
In future, the model could help interpret archaeological evidence such as indications of overpopulation or land use patterns, thereby providing the context and data needed to further refine the modelling – a classic example of the interdisciplinary collaboration that CSH aims to foster.
“We use complexity science methods to develop mathematical models to analyze the rise and fall of complex societies and identify common factors,” Turchin explains. This involves collecting vast amounts of historical data, managed in specialist databases such as the Seshat World History Databank.
“Direct collaboration with archaeologists is crucial to get as complete a picture as possible, and this study is a great example of the possibilities of such interdisciplinary collaboration,” Condor emphasizes.
Further information: Landscapes of fear: Indirect effects of conflict may be the cause of large-scale population declines in non-state societies, Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2024). DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0210. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi … .1098/rsif.2024.0210
Courtesy of Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Citation: Study Links Fear of Conflict to Population Change in Neolithic Europe (August 28, 2024) Retrieved August 28, 2024 from https://phys.org/news/2024-08-links-conflict-population-neolithic-europe.html
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