Sarah Nowaka, an Arab expert from the Polish Institute of International Relations, said that the regime in Damascus was basically silent without a fight. According to him, the success of the rebels was related to their “sleeper cells” in the capital of Syria and the loneliness of Bashar Assad. He said that although the Syrian opposition has become more radicalized and the group that launched the attack has terrorist roots, “a large part of society is welcoming the new reality with hope and maybe even joy.”
On Sunday, the Syrian rebels announced in a televised statement that they had liberated Damascus and overthrown the country's president, Bashar al-Assad. Assad, who has cracked down on all forms of opposition and imprisoned thousands of people, according to some sources, flew from Damascus to an unknown destination on Sunday, and according to others, he wanted to do this, but he probably died on a plane. due to the fact that one of the cars departing from the airport of the capital disappeared from the radars.
The rebels, whose main force is the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have been conducting offensive operations in the north of the country for a week and a half. In a fierce campaign, they, among others, the second largest city of the country, Aleppo and Hama, which has a population of about half a million people. The opposition forces of Bashar al-Assad have also occupied almost all the south-western regions of the country, including the entire Daraa region, in recent days.
The complex and dynamic situation in Syria was explained on TVN24 by Sarah Nowaka, an Arab expert from the Polish Institute of International Relations.
The fall of the regime
It can be said that the Damascus regime has already disappeared. He said he basically went down without a fight. – It is said that the rebels were not yet forced to enter the capital, and Assad's soldiers left without a fight, without declaring their support for the president. It is even said that an agreement has been reached between some of Assad's commanders and the opposition or rebels who launched this attack, the Arabist said.
He added that some of the people fighting in the ranks of the rebels are “sleeper cells that were still active and present in Damascus.”
He also emphasized that the fighters of Daraa and Al-Suwayda also joined the quick attack of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. – So, actually from a completely different direction, because they also pushed towards Damascus from the Jordanian side of the border. You could say that the city is completely surrounded by various opposition groups, she explained.
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A lonely dictator
As Novaka noted, it also became clear that Bashar al-Assad can no longer count on the support of Russia and Iran, his closest and most powerful allies.
He added that on Saturday the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Qatar. Since 2017, these three countries have been the so-called guarantors of the Astana Process, which was established to end the civil war in Syria that has been going on since 2011. However, the representatives of Moscow, Ankara and Tehran did not agree on any concrete steps that could bring the end of the war in Syria closer.
“They announced that Assad should basically come to an agreement with the opposition, that they do not intend to get involved in the defense of the regime and the president, at least now,” noted the PISM expert.
Iran and Russia have long been staunch supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Turkey supported and showed solidarity with Syrian rebels during the 2011 uprising.
Baszar al-Assad Borna News/Matin Ghasemi/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images
These are the Syrian rebels
What do we know about the rebels who took Damascus? As Novaka explains, the Syrian opposition is a real mosaic.
Arabist noted that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which launched the attack, “has a strong terrorist past.” – It originates mainly from al-Qaeda in Syria, but since 2006 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has cut itself off from its roots, mainly fighting both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Syria, taking a more pragmatic approach to got a job One's actions are Arabic.
As he explained, the group's activities focused on two main elements. – First of all, it completely rejected the idea of global jihad, global acts of terrorism and the spread of the Muslim religion. It focused on Syria, meaning it adopted a nationalistic, nationalistic narrative where the priority was to liberate Syrian territory from Bashar al-Assad's rule, Novaka said.
He added that “the second element of this change was to soften their message, to show that they are willing to tolerate all ethnic and religious groups.” He noted that Syria is very different in this regard.
Syrian rebels on the streets of HomsBILAL ALHAMMOUD/EPA/PAP
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham wanted to show that representatives of different ethnic and religious groups can feel safe in the territory under their control. – This was accompanied by an interest in improving the quality of services in the territories controlled by this group, – Novaka said. He added that part of the population around Aleppo is fleeing to the areas under the control of the HTS due to the significant deterioration of the living conditions in the territories under the rule of the regime.
He stressed that HTS remains a radical group.
What will happen to Syria in the future?
– This change is not ideal from the point of view of most people, but it is a change. Syrians certainly feel what tomorrow will bring. They don't know how it will all turn out, whether it will lead to further instability, chaos and further wars, but at the moment this is the first light at the end of the tunnel that they have seen for years – Novaka said. .
He added that “the possibility of change contributes to the fact that the majority of society welcomes this new reality with hope, maybe even joy.” He noted that “the main problem of Syrians, despite a radical type like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, remains President Bashar al-Assad, and not the Islamists who now control these territories.”
– At the same time, other groups, including the Kurds supported by the United States, have joined these clashes, so in fact all these opposition forces will probably now meet near Damascus. The biggest challenge for the situation in Syria is when they are in the same place next to each other and there is a need to develop some idea or agreement for the future, Novaka said.
What do we know about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? Sarah Novaka on the terrorist roots of Cable News Network Inc. All rights reserved 2024
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/BILAL ALHAMMUUD
