Taiwan's bold expansion of its submarine fleet represents a big gamble to counter the growing Chinese military threat, despite significant financial, logistical and geopolitical challenges.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan has set aside a large budget to build seven more submarines by 2038 to deter potential aggression by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).
The decision, which has been approved by Cabinet and awaits legislative review, has sparked debate among analysts over its timing and financial prudence, given that the prototype submarine, the Haikun, is still undergoing trials, SCMP reported.
The report said the high cost of the project – NT$284 billion (US$8.88 billion) compared with NT$26 billion (US$806 million) for the prototype – raises questions about rushing to expand the fleet without final sea trial results.
Critics urge fiscal discipline and caution against premature budget allocations, while supporters emphasize the strategic need for advanced submarines to ensure Taiwan's security and counter threats from the People's Liberation Army, SCMP reported.
While Taiwan's ambitious submarine program has sparked debate over fiscal prudence, experts stress it plays a key role in disrupting People's Liberation Army operations and bolstering Taiwan's asymmetric defense strategy.
Submarines could penetrate China's defense zones and target Chinese amphibious ships and supply convoys, disrupting the PLA's logistics and reducing the effectiveness of an invasion force, Mark Cancian and other authors wrote in a January 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
Cancian and his colleagues say submarines operating in the narrow, shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait will likely use stealth capabilities to avoid detection by Chinese anti-submarine forces.
They say the submarines' ability to operate in such an environment would be a crucial asymmetric tool in Taiwan's defense strategy, allowing them to inflict heavy damage on an invasion fleet.
But Cancian and others point out that while submarines alone would not be enough to repel a full-scale invasion, they would play an important role in slowing down and making it more difficult for the People's Liberation Army to launch an attack.
That would give Taiwan and its allies, including the United States, more time to respond and increase the chances of preventing the Chinese military from establishing a sustainable beachhead.
Consistent with Cancian and others' assessment, David Axe wrote in a September 2023 Forbes article that the Haikun and its seven sister submarines, along with bombers, would be essential to repel an invasion and could sink large numbers of Chinese ships.
In addition to providing Taiwan with tactical and operational options, Collin Ko noted the psychological and political value of Taiwan's submarines in a February 2024 Newsweek article.
Ko said the Hai Kun's release was aimed at assuring the Taiwanese public of accountability and that the project was proceeding as planned, adding that it would act as a deterrent and keep China guessing about the submarine's capabilities.
Taiwan's bold submarine plan is a crucial asymmetric defense initiative, but its construction, personnel training and strategic integration challenges highlight the complexity of turning the concept into reality.
Building eight submarines is a daunting task, John Dotson wrote in a June 2023 Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) article. It's unclear how long it would take to build all the ships at Taiwan's current naval shipbuilding facilities, Dotson said, especially given competition for production capacity and budgetary constraints on building surface ships locally.
He also cited uncertainties over training and qualifying crews for Taiwan's significantly expanded submarine fleet and establishing protocols for managing overlapping patrol areas with allies and regional nations in peacetime and wartime.
Dotson said Taiwan's biggest challenge in operating submarines is integrating these assets into its overall defense strategy.
He said Taiwan could look at operational models such as Nazi Germany's “wolfpacks,” the U.S. Navy's controversial “maritime strategy” of the 1980s and a passive submarine “present fleet” to complicate the People's Liberation Army's blockade or invasion plans.
Taiwan faces the dual challenge of balancing submarine construction and diversifying its naval forces while integrating an asymmetric strategy to counter China’s conventional and unconventional military tactics.
In January 2024, the Asia Times noted that Taiwan's concurrent naval construction projects could signal challenges in designing its naval force.
The challenge comes from balancing building an asymmetric force to counter China's non-traditional tactics in conflict zones with establishing conventional forces to defend against possible aggression.
Taiwan has emphasized the development of a highly visible conventional naval force to counter China's gray-zone tactics, but this approach does not effectively address China's significant military advantages.
Taiwan's strategy of diversifying its force structure and procurement to deal with conventional and asymmetric warfare could leave it vulnerable.
Taiwan's new light frigates and corvettes may be more effective in dealing with China's frequent surface and underwater incursions into Taiwanese territory, but submarines may soon become Taiwan's most important naval vessels if Taiwan fully adopts an asymmetric warfare strategy.
China's political influence operations further complicate efforts to modernize and expand Taiwan's submarine fleet as it struggles to maintain a balanced naval force structure.
A January 2021 Strategic Comments article noted that the success of Taiwan's Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program depends heavily on sustained political and financial support, particularly from former President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who have close ties to the program.
In line with this, Alan Yu and other authors wrote in a February 2024 article for the Center for American Progress (CAP) that despite China's significant efforts to influence the outcome of Taiwan's January 2024 presidential election, Taiwanese voters elected DPP candidate Lai Ching-te as president.
Yu and his colleagues say China's coordinated effort to sway the election includes sophisticated AI-powered disinformation campaigns aimed at manipulating public opinion and undermining political support for Taiwan's military modernization, particularly its submarine program.
Despite these tactics, they note, Taiwan's strong countermeasures, including legislation and public awareness-raising efforts, have at least partially blunted China's influence operations.
