President Franklin D. Roosevelt's first 100 days in office stabilized the United States in a time of crisis and established an enduring standard by which presidential success can be evaluated. The concept of the “first 100 days” is most prominent in the United States, but other democracies such as Taiwan have also adopted it.
Since Taiwan's first democratic transition of power in 2000, Taiwanese people have increasingly used the first 100 days of power as a period to assess the performance of their president, mimicking a practice established decades ago in Washington.
But Taiwan's presidents have struggled to match the 62% average approval rating that U.S. presidents have achieved in their first 100 days in office since Dwight Eisenhower in 1950. Since 2000, Taiwan's leaders have faced significant declines in approval ratings by this measure.
For example, President Chen Shui-bian's approval rating plummeted from 79% to 42% in just four months. The same goes for Presidents Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, whose approval ratings were 41% and 39%, respectively, on their 100th day in office. Most recently, President Lai Ching-te, who took office on May 20, 2024, saw his approval rating fall from 58% to 46% within three months.
Taiwan is a young democracy where democratic norms are still immature and political polarization is severe, making it very different from the United States (although in recent years the United States has begun to resemble Taiwan).
Since the country's democratization began in the late 1980s, Taiwan's politics have been plagued by fierce ideological conflicts, particularly over national identity, which have led to persistent divisions between the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
This division means Taiwan's president is often quick to reverse his predecessor's policies while fending off relentless attacks from the opposition.
Lai is now in the unique position of being the first Taiwanese president since democratization to succeed the leader of the same party, the Democratic Progressive Party, giving him a rare opportunity to break out of the vicious cycle of “correcting” the previous administration.
Facing a strong opposition, with the KMT-Taiwan People's Party (TPP) coalition holding a majority in parliament, many had expected Lai to focus on building party unity to defend his policies and positions, but he has made an unexpected about-face.
Unlike his predecessor, who targeted the opposition, Lai has turned his political attacks inward, including the detention of Cheng Man-can, chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation, on corruption allegations dating back to his time as mayor of Taoyuan. Cheng's arrest reflects the fierce political infighting within the Democratic Progressive Party, his longtime rival.
Cheng, a key figure in the DPP, established himself as a rising star within the party after his unexpected victory in the 2014 Taoyuan mayoral election, upsetting the KMT's long-held stronghold in the region.
In this role, Cheng demonstrated excellent interpersonal skills and an ability to attract and unite different factions, including KMT supporters, qualities that made him one of Tsai Ing-wen's preferred successors.
Tsai Ing-wen is also a pragmatist with a similarly less ideological stance, but she reportedly had a high opinion of Cheng's coalition-building skills, which she relied on to consolidate her own power within the DPP.
In contrast, Lai enjoys strong support from independence faction within the DPP, who see him as Tsai's rightful successor.
Tsai Ing-wen's unwavering commitment to Taiwan's independence from mainland China resonates deeply with these groups, many of whom have been frustrated by her more moderate policies.
In 2019, Lai made a surprise move to challenge Tsai Ing-wen for the DPP presidential nomination, which was seen at the time as a preemptive strike to avoid a tough race with Cheng in 2024.
Although Lai's candidacy ultimately failed and he ended up joining President Tsai Ing-wen's running for vice president, Tsai Ing-wen showed clear signs of favoring Cheng in the run-up to January's election, intensifying his conflict with Cheng.
This tense personal history was what prompted Lai to “punish” Cheng after he came to power. But prosecutors are supposed to operate independently of politics, so how can we be sure that Lai would detain Cheng on corruption charges?
One strong clue is the circumstances surrounding the incident: it was initially launched in 2017 but the investigation was soon closed due to “lack of evidence.”
It is therefore highly suspicious that a case that had been left unattended for seven years under the Tsai Ing-wen administration suddenly resurfaced with enough evidence to detain Cheng shortly after Lai became president.
Another clear sign is Tsai Ing-wen's decision to miss the DPP National Conference on July 20th, citing “scheduling conflicts.” The conference is crucial in shaking up the power structure within the DPP, and her absence is likely a sign of dissatisfaction with Lai following Cheng's arrest.
By targeting a key figure within his own party, Lai set a key precedent for a Taiwanese president who has prioritised internal power struggles over fighting the opposition in his first 100 days in office.
The decision is particularly shocking given the DPP's weak position facing a hostile opposition-dominated parliament. Cheng's detention could seriously damage the DPP's image, as it would vindicate one of the many corruption allegations the party has consistently denied in recent years. But Lai chose to fire Cheng nonetheless, demonstrating that he is prepared to pay the price.
The most important lesson to be learned from Lai's early actions is that despite being elected by a minority of votes, the DPP may be much more powerful than it appears.
In an era marked by an authoritarian versus democratic dynamic that resonates strongly in Taiwan, the party seems confident that its tough stance on China will continue to be supported by Taiwanese voters over alternatives such as the pro-Beijing Kuomintang or the upstart Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is currently mired in a campaign finance scandal.
Moving away from deep-rooted partisan divisions is essential for the future development of Taiwan's democracy, but Lai's initial focus on intra-party struggles may not necessarily be indicative of this tendency.
Rather, this may signal that Taiwanese politics has moved beyond the cyclical battles between the two major parties and is entering a new era of long-term dominance for the DPP.
