Thailand plans to acquire the latest Saab Gripen E/F fighter jets to improve its air defense capabilities and step up military modernization in the aftermath of the Myanmar civil war and the intensifying competition between the U.S. and China for influence in Southeast Asia.
This month, The War Zone reported that the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) has announced its intention to acquire Sweden's state-of-the-art Saab Gripen E/F fighter jets, which will mark a significant upgrade from its current fleet of Gripen C/D fighters.
After a 10-month evaluation, the RTAF now plans to procure 12 to 14 of the new fighter jets, with deliveries due to start in 2028, pending cabinet approval of the new government led by Pathumthan Shinawatra.
The War Zone report states that the Gripen E/F has not won many victories in international fighter jet competitions, especially when compared to rivals such as the US-made F-35 and F-16, adding that the RTAF currently operates 11 upgraded Gripen C and D aircraft, in addition to a large fleet of ageing US-made F-16 and F-5 Tiger II jets.
According to a report from The Warzone, the upcoming Gripen E/Fs will first replace the oldest F-16s, and then phase out the F-5s.
Thailand's acquisition of the new Gripen E/F fighter jets dovetails with the country's modernization plans and security challenges, particularly the potential fallout from the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and growing U.S.-China competition for influence in the neighboring country.
According to Thailand's 2020-2037 Air Force Strategy, the country's reason for purchasing Gripen E/F fighter jets is to counter evolving aerial threats and strengthen its air defense capabilities.
The report noted that the sophistication of aerial threats, particularly the rise of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and the possibility of regional conflict, such as in neighboring Myanmar, are key factors in the need to acquire advanced fighter jets like the Gripen.
According to the strategy, the jets are intended to fulfill air superiority, ground attack and reconnaissance roles, providing a versatile response to conventional and asymmetric threats.
But the report said the RTAF would face significant challenges with the acquisition, including the high costs of purchasing, operating and maintaining state-of-the-art jets.
As Myanmar's military junta continues to use its air power to bomb rebels and modernize its air force with help from China and Russia, Thailand faces the threat of increased incursions into its territory by Myanmar's more capable fighter jets.
In a January 2023 Asia Times article, Anthony Davis noted that the Myanmar Air Force's (MAF) new capabilities, including new Russian-made Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jets and Chinese FTC-2000Gs, are central to the junta's strategy.
He noted that the Myanmar military has stepped up daily sorties targeting rebel groups in Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Shan and Chin states since mid-2022. Davis said the Myanmar junta is seeking to break the resolve of the Federal Democratic Armed Rebels and to split the Ethnic Resistance Organization (ERO) and the ethnic Burmese-led People's Defense Army (PDF).
Davis noted that the MAF's diverse fleet of aircraft, including older Russian MiG-29s and Chinese F-7s, has been bolstered by new acquisitions, giving it greater operational flexibility, adding that the MAF's growing pilot experience and tactical flexibility, supported by multiple airbases, has improved targeting accuracy.
Thailand has responded restrainedly to previous violations of its airspace by Myanmar, not due to a lack of interception capabilities but political considerations.
In a paper published in December 2022 in the peer-reviewed Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, Krissana Chotisat and other authors say the Thai government's muted response to a June 2022 violation of Thai airspace by Myanmar MiG-29 fighter jets was criticized.
Chothisat and others say that despite the RTAF's initial press release issuing strong warnings against further violations, then-Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha downplayed the incident, characterising it as a minor issue and accepting Myanmar's explanation that it was an unintentional mistake.
Chothisat and others say Thailand's response was likely influenced by its political and economic ties to the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups. They say this may have led the Thai government to make a calculated decision to maintain stability in the border region and protect broader national interests.
Thailand’s acquisition of Gripen E/F fighter jets and balanced defense diplomacy with the United States and China are a response to potential air attacks from the Myanmar civil war and reflect a broader effort to modernize its military while maintaining its sovereignty in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Thailand's approach to military procurement and participation in international exercises reflects a nuanced defense diplomacy strategy that balances its relationships with the United States and China, Paul Chambers wrote in a 2024 Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs (JIPA).
Chambers said Thailand has historically sourced military equipment, including fighter jets, from a variety of sources, primarily the United States.
But Alyssa Cheng wrote in the South China Morning Post this month that relations between the US and Thailand have been strained since the 2014 coup that overthrew Thailand's democratically elected government. Cheng says China has stepped in to fill the void after the US canceled joint military exercises and symbolically withheld $3.5 million in military aid.
She noted that data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) showed Thailand's purchases from China have increased since 2014, with China selling big-ticket items such as submarines, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and armored fighting vehicles.
Chen said China and Thailand have been expanding the scope of their military exercises, but they are not as complex as those Thailand conducts with the United States.
In line with this, David Axe stated in an October 2021 article in The National Interest (TNI) that during the 2015 Falcon Strike exercise between China and Thailand, Thai pilots shot down 42 J-11s, while Chinese pilots shot down 34 Gripens with their J-11s.
Axe noted that China's J-11s had the advantage in within visual range (WVR) dogfights, while the Gripens had the advantage in beyond visual range (BVR) combat, noting that 88 percent of the Thai kills were achieved at 30 kilometers compared to just 14 percent for the Chinese. He added that the Gripens shot down 10 aircraft at 49 kilometers, while the J-11s did not shoot down a single one at that distance.
Thailand used the Gripen instead of the F-16 because the United States has banned Thailand from using F-16 and F-5 fighter jets in military exercises with China.
Chambers noted that Thailand's defence diplomacy has evolved from a “fly against the wind” strategy to a more calculated hedging policy aimed at maintaining a balance between major powers, particularly the United States and China.
He said this dual engagement is exemplified by Thailand's participation in joint military exercises such as Cobra Gold with the United States and Blue Strike and Falcon Strike with China.
As Southeast Asia finds itself caught in the middle of U.S.-China competition, Chambers said Thailand is pursuing a strategy of balancing ties with major powers, strengthening its military power and regional influence while avoiding reliance on any single ally to protect its sovereignty.
