It’s impossible to predict exactly how your fantasy football draft will shake out, but it’s always a good idea to go in with a top target or two from every projected round so you never panic when you’re on the clock. Using the FantasyPros average draft position list for half-PPR scoring, I’ve identified a few guys going in each round—as of the time of this writing—who possess the upside to propel drafters to championships in their leagues. Here are my favorite picks in every round.
First Round (Picks 1-12)
The pick: WR Garrett Wilson, Jets (ADP WR7, 12th overall)
Honorable mention: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (WR5, eighth overall)
It’d feel like cheating if I went with any of the consensus Big Five players you’ll find on most rankings (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill, in some order). So to make it more fun, I’ll go with a guy I think has a chance to ascend to real fantasy superstardom in 2024. Wilson has already proved himself as one of the most talented pass catchers, but after enduring probably the worst quarterback situation in the league last year (catching passes from a combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle), the third-year pro gets a massive upgrade in four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Wilson, who ranked fourth in targets (168) last year but just 14th in catches (95), will continue to demand targets—but should see his rate of catchable passes increase dramatically, especially in the red zone. I’m expecting a massive breakout campaign and a top-five finish at receiver.
Second Round (13-24)
The pick: RB De’Von Achane, Dolphins (RB11, 21st overall)
Honorable mention: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (RB6, 13th overall)
Achane feels risky in the second round, I know, and there’s no getting around the fact that he’s a 190-odd-pound running back who battled multiple injuries as a rookie. But those injury worries are far outweighed by the magical things he did when he was on the field for the Dolphins last season—and by the potential he brings for an even bigger breakout in 2024. Achane finished last season as the RB4 in points per game (16.1) despite averaging just 11.8 touches (42nd among running backs). There’s a ton of meat on the bone for Achane to expand his utilization in this electric Miami scheme (he was on the field for just 42 percent of the snaps in games he played), and it doesn’t feel wild to say that a boost to even 60 percent of snaps and, say, 15 to 16 touches a game could give him overall RB1 upside.
Achane was the most efficient running back in the league last year by a country mile, averaging a league-best 7.8 yards per carry while ranking first (among 49 running backs with 100 rushes) in both yards before contact and yards after contact per rush. Yes, Achane will likely cede goal-line opportunities to Raheem Mostert, but the explosive playmaker can make up for that by expanding his pass-catching role. He consistently separated when utilized as a de facto receiver last season, and there have been some preseason signals that his opportunities as a pass catcher could increase dramatically in year two. Bottom line, if Achane can stay healthy, he’ll bring league-winning upside.
Third Round (25-36)
The pick: WR Nico Collins, Texans (WR14, 29th overall)
Honorable mention: WR Cooper Kupp, Rams (WR17, 34th overall)
Collins would be a hotter name this year if the Texans hadn’t made the offseason trade for Stefon Diggs, a move that mucks up fantasy projections for the team’s top pass catchers in 2024. Still, Collins remains an ascending talent who checks an awful lot of boxes that we look for in fantasy: He’s big, fast, extremely elusive after the catch (he ranked fourth in yards after the catch per reception and second in yards after contact per catch), and, most importantly, connected to one of the best young passers in the game in C.J. Stroud. Increased target competition could put a limit on Collins’s ceiling and keep him from matching his WR6 finish last year in points per game (14.7), but I still think he’ll outplay his ADP.
Fourth Round (37-48)
The pick: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints (RB17, 45th overall)
Honorable mention: TE Trey McBride, Cardinals (TE3, 48th overall)
Kamara remains a high-ceiling play in half-PPR and PPR leagues thanks to the fact that he plays in an offense quarterbacked by Derek Carr. Carr absolutely loves to check the ball down to his running back; Carr ranked fifth in the NFL last year in the percentage of throws that targeted that position (23.3 percent), a rate that has held pretty steady over the past five seasons (22.7 percent, sixth highest)—so there’s little reason to believe he’ll suddenly change his ways. That means Kamara will catch a ton of passes yet again in 2024. The veteran back finished second in both targets (86) and catches (75) last year to propel him to an RB5 finish in half-PPR points per game (15.0), and he has virtually no new competition for volume at the position.
Fifth Round (49-60)
The pick: WR Malik Nabers, Giants (WR24, 49th overall)
Honorable mention: RB James Conner, Cardinals (RB19, 55th overall)
Sometimes, it’s best to follow the numbers. Other times, you should follow your heart. With this pick, I’m doing the latter. I realize that Daniel Jones might not be very good, and I realize the Giants have scored the second-fewest touchdowns of any team in the league since Jones was drafted (only the Jets are worse). But I also believe that one of the best ways for any team to get out of an offensive rut is to draft an absolute superstar at receiver—and I think that’s what Nabers can be. The rookie out of LSU has looked fantastic this preseason, showing off incredible speed, burst, and body control. Nabers should hit the ground running as the team’s no. 1 receiver, and Jones will feed him like there’s no tomorrow. I think he’ll end up looking like a draft-day steal in both real life and fantasy.
Sixth Round (61-72)
The pick: TE Evan Engram, Jaguars (TE8, 70th overall)
Honorable mention: RB Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (RB25, 71st overall)
Engram exploded back onto the fantasy scene last year, reeling in 114 passes (second most for any tight end in a single season) to finish as the TE6 in points per game (10.2) and secure himself a three-year, $41 million contract extension. Some of the veteran pass catcher’s productivity last year can be attributed to Christian Kirk’s missed time, but with Calvin Ridley now gone via free agency (replaced by Gabe Davis and a rookie in Brian Thomas Jr., who may take some time to get up to speed), there’s little doubt Engram will remain a massive part of the Jacksonville passing game. The Jaguars were fourth in the NFL with a 27 percent tight end target rate last year, and in the two seasons that head coach Doug Pederson has been coaching the team, they’ve thrown to tight ends at the seventh-highest rate (23 percent). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence trusts Engram, and Pederson knows exactly how best to deploy him, using him extensively on crossers and out-routes where he can catch the ball and pick up yards after the catch.
Seventh Round (73-84)
The pick: WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs (WR33, 73rd overall)
Honorable mention: WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (WR34, 77th overall)
It’s still unknown if and when Rice will be suspended as a result of the eight charges he’s facing in connection to a multicar crash back in March. Legal proceedings can move at a glacial pace, and the NFL often waits until cases run their course before meting out suspensions, so it’s likely that Rice won’t miss time for that until the 2025 season. If he is eligible to play the full 2024 season, he could challenge for a top-12 finish. The Chiefs brought Rice along slowly last season, and the rookie didn’t crack the starting lineup until Week 7. But from that game on, he averaged 12.6 half-PPR points per game—good for WR16 during that stretch. Rice was especially effective late in the year, and that performance could foreshadow what we’ll see from him in 2024: From Week 12 on, he ranked as the WR9 in points per game (14.9) and emerged as Patrick Mahomes’s most trusted target opposite Travis Kelce.
Eighth Round (85-96)
The pick: QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders (QB12, 96th overall)
Honorable mention: WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (WR38, 87th overall)
Daniels is the only player in FBS history to rack up more than 12,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards. He’s also the only player in FBS history to throw for more than 350 yards and rush for more than 200 yards in the same game. In other words, he’s got the potential to become a fantasy cheat code. The former Heisman winner will likely take his lumps as he acclimates to the NFL, and the Commanders may struggle to compete. But Daniels will almost surely run a lot (and rushing yards are worth a lot of fantasy points), throw a lot of deep balls (that’s what he did in college), and play in an up-tempo, wide-open scheme under Kliff Kingsbury (the more plays he runs, the more points he’ll score). This is also the latest you’ll get a true dual-threat quarterback for 2024.
Ninth Round (97-108)
The pick: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (WR44, 105th overall)
Honorable mention: QB Caleb Williams, Bears (QB13, 97th overall)
Smith-Njigba was one of the more disappointing rookie receivers last year, so this is a bit of a risky pick. But I think the former first-rounder is the perfect fit for what the Seahawks’ new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, wants to run this year—and I think Smith-Njigba will benefit from Seattle simply running far more plays on offense than it did last year. The Seahawks defense couldn’t get off the field last season, surrendering a league-worst 143 first downs on rush attempts while allowing opponents to grind down the clock. As a result, Seattle’s offense ran a league-worst 58.5 plays per game—severely dampening the team’s skill players in fantasy. A higher-tempo, more aggressive scheme this season could be a massive boon for Smith-Njigba, who has a good chance to leapfrog the aging Tyler Lockett to emerge as the Seahawks’ de facto no. 2 receiver opposite DK Metcalf.
10th Round (109-120)
The pick: RB Blake Corum, Rams (RB41, 119th overall)
Honorable mention: RB Jerome Ford, Browns (RB40, 113th overall)
Corum will likely have some sort of role with the Rams offense in year one, and he may even provide some stand-alone value if the team decides to use him either in goal-line looks or on passing downs. But this pick is more about the rookie’s contingent value. He’s one of the top handcuff options in all of fantasy football as a backup to Kyren Williams, a guy with plenty of injury concerns—especially now that Sean McVay has announced that Williams will play a role as a punt returner. If Williams gets hurt, Corum stands to inherit massive volume, as McVay tends to lean very heavily on just one running back when he can.
11th Round (121-132)
The pick: WR Khalil Shakir, Bills (WR50, 127th overall)
Honorable mention: RB Rico Dowdle, Cowboys (RB42, 131st overall)
Shakir flashed some real potential late in the season last year, showcasing reliability and big-play prowess. In fact, after Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as the Bills’ offensive coordinator in Week 11, Shakir led the team in receiving the rest of the way (with 363 yards and a score on 20 catches). The pass-catching hierarchy remains very unsettled in Buffalo following Stefon Diggs’s offseason departure, but Shakir has a solid chance to sneak past rookie Keon Coleman and veteran addition Curtis Samuel (who is dealing with turf toe) to emerge as the team’s most prolific receiver.
12th Round (133-144)
The pick: RB J.K. Dobbins, Chargers (RB43, 133rd overall)
Honorable mention: RB Jaylen Wright, Dolphins (RB46, 144th overall)
Dobbins is an obvious injury risk coming off an ACL tear (in 2021) and an Achilles tendon tear (in 2023). But if he can prove he’s healthy and anywhere close to the explosive back he used to be, he’ll be a high-upside scratch-off ticket in the 12th round. Dobbins is still just 25 years old and will be running in a familiar scheme under Greg Roman (who coached Dobbins in Baltimore). The Chargers want to run the hell out of the ball, and, crucially, they’ve got an efficient quarterback in Justin Herbert, who should give the offense plenty of red zone opportunities. Dobbins will get opportunities near the goal line and may end up getting some looks in the passing game, too.
13th Round (145-156)
The pick: RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (RB48, 148th overall)
Honorable mention: RB Ty Chandler, Vikings (RB47, 147th overall)
McLaughlin didn’t play enough snaps last year (18 percent) to make a real fantasy dent, but he was incredibly efficient with the opportunities he got, finishing third in half-PPR points per snap among all running backs (minimum 100 snaps; behind only De’Von Achane and Keaton Mitchell). And based on McLaughlin’s preseason usage (he saw some run with the starting unit in preseason Week 2 and sat out preseason Week 3 with the starters), he has a real chance to see his role grow in 2024. McLaughlin showed promise catching passes during the preseason, and the Broncos offense under Sean Payton and quarterback Bo Nix should utilize its running backs in the passing game extensively. He has upside in half-PPR and PPR leagues.
14th Round (157-168)
The pick: WR Dontayvion Wicks, Packers (WR59, 157th overall)
Honorable mention: WR Adonai Mitchell, Colts (WR60, 158th overall)
I like to target players with Wicks’s profile late in the drafts. And by that, I mean guys with very apparent talent who have fallen only because of utilization concerns. Right now, most fantasy drafters assume Wicks will be the WR4 in the ascending Packers passing game, but that’s no lock—especially considering Christian Watson’s history with injuries over the past few years. If Wicks can find his way into a starting role for Green Bay, whether by injury or by simply outplaying Watson, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs, he’ll represent excellent value in the 14th round.
15th Round (169-180)
The pick: QB Justin Fields, Steelers (QB25, 180th overall)
Honorable mention: TE Isaiah Likely, Ravens (TE19, 175th overall)
Russell Wilson has been named the Steelers’ starter, but the veteran quarterback’s job may not be secure. If Wilson struggles mightily to start the year, Pittsburgh could quickly pivot to Fields, who brings scintillating upside … at least in fantasy. As we saw in Chicago, Fields can be a terrible passer and still thrive in our game by racking up tons of yards and touchdowns with his legs. Fields averaged 17.7 points per game last year (QB11) and 19.7 PPG in 2022 (QB5). He’s worth a flier at this point in drafts.
The Haul
QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
RB: De’Von Achane, Dolphins
RB: Alvin Kamara, Saints
WR: Garrett Wilson, Jets
WR: Nico Collins, Texans
WR: Malik Nabers, Giants
TE: Evan Engram, Jaguars
FLX: Rashee Rice, Chiefs
BN: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks
BN: Blake Corum, Rams
BN: Khalil Shakir, Bills
BN: J.K. Dobbins, Chargers
BN: Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos
BN: Dontayvion Wicks, Packers
BN: Justin Fields, Steelers
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