Fragran Field is not your typical volcano with a large peak that pours out dust and lava during an eruption. In this case, we're dealing with a caldera, the space that forms after the top of a volcano collapses.
The diameter of the depression is 13 kilometers. People still live there. This is a completely paradoxical situation. Because it's about 40,000 years old. A few years ago, this volcano led to the extinction of Neanderthals.
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Next, 285 cubic kilometers of material was thrown into the air. A large amount of sulfur-rich dust blanketed the skies over most of Europe, northern Africa, and western Asia. Temperatures have dropped by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius across the region.
This shook the entire ecosystem.
Are the bombs ticking louder and louder beneath the Fragran fields?
The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) is observing an increase in seismic activity beneath the Phlegran Field starting in 2022. This year, 160 earthquakes were recorded in the region in September alone. Although their strength was not great, their numbers prove that the volcano is waking up from a long slumber. As a result, a yellow alert level has been issued.
Geochemical parameters confirm the accumulation of magma and gas beneath the Phlegran field (at a depth of 3-4 kilometers) and its increasing pressure. Estimates suggest that the current production is around 5,000 tons per day. This value is close to typical values for active volcanoes that have released gas.
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An additional threat is the nearby Mount Vesuvius. It is just 50 km from Campi Flegrei. As a result, gradual earthquakes, in which the Earth rises or sinks, may occur. This is dangerous because as the caldera stretches, the rock can crack and magma can leak out. Meanwhile, as INGV's analysis shows, it has already reached a tipping point.
Between Campi Flegrei and Mount Vesuvius lies the famous Italian city of Naples. It is the third largest city in Italy in terms of population, with a population of around 1 million people, and up to 3 million people in the agglomeration area formed with the surrounding towns.
What would happen if the bomb stopped making noise?
Paradoxically, the subsidence in seismic activity will not be a reason to breathe a sigh of relief, but rather a reason to hold our breath. Campi Flegrei could repeat the pattern of Papua New Guinea's Rabaul volcano. The Rabaul volcano unexpectedly quieted down shortly before its 1994 eruption, turning out to be the proverbial “calm before the storm.”
If Campi Flegrei were to erupt, half a million people living in and around the caldera would be at risk. It is difficult to predict the size of a potential eruption. In the worst-case scenario, the skies over much of Europe could be covered in dust, just like in prehistoric times.
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But there is also a more optimistic scenario, in which an eruption can be predicted early enough, residents can be evacuated within three days of the explosion, and the explosion itself will not be catastrophic. Only time will tell what scenario nature will realize.
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Edited/polsatnews.pl
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