rock
WNBA (0.5 units) Minnesota Lynx -3.5 @ Phoenix Mercury (-110; odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CST, on Bally Sports North
The Lynx are on a roll, winning and covering all five games since the season restart. Their offense is especially strong, averaging 90.6 points per game during this span. They should continue this way. Phoenix has issues on both ends of the court and seems to change from game to game. That will make Minnesota hard to catch due to their inconsistency. The Lynx have beaten the Mercury in very different ways this season, beating them by 95 points at one point and holding them to 60 at another. Given their ability to win in different ways, we can expect them to continue their roll tonight and look for another solid win and cover.
MLB (0.5 units) Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; odds via Caesars): 6:10 p.m. CST, on NESN
The Blue Jays are not interested in playing the rest of the season, and their young players are striking out to test out their farm system. That makes them shaky, but also dangerous, especially against Boston's starting pitchers. Last time out at Fenway, Brian Bello looked his usual self after a couple of good innings, reminding us why he has a 5.54 ERA at home this season. One of those home starts gave up seven runs against Toronto. He has a career batting average of .393 and an OPS of 1.079 against the Blue Jays. Given those struggles and a lineup that swings at will, expect Bello to have another tough game as Toronto capitalizes on this positive return.
MLB (0.5 units) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CST, Bally Sports MW
Some might expect the Padres' offense to falter after giving up seven runs to the Cardinals on consecutive days, but I'm not one of them. The conditions that made San Diego such a big success remain intact in tonight's game. St. Louis' other right-handed starter has a poor record at home, but he is the very pitcher who pitched in the first two games of this series. Andre Pallante's 4.85 ERA at home is two points better than his road record, and he has benefited from facing weaker lineups in his home starts. The Padres are on a roll, dominating right-handed pitching and having success on the road, and I see both continuing tonight as a positive return here again.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +96.8 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
