rock
NCAA Football (1 unit) Darius Taylor over 71.5 rushing yards (-110, odds via Caesars): 7 p.m. CST on FOX
That's a very low total considering how Minnesota has played and how P.J. Fleck's coaching staff has played. Not many teams like the run as much as the Gophers, especially at home, where they were 13th in rush play percentage last season. The quarterback's ability to improve with the transfer of Max Brosmer should improve, but pounding the ball behind a lead back is P.J. Fleck's specialty. So Darius Taylor, who emerged as Minnesota's go-to back when healthy last season, should benefit from that style. The Gophers will be able to establish a ground game with their young backs against a North Carolina defense that was 93rd in run defense last season and allowed 138 to Taylor in Week 3.
NCAA Football (0.5 units) New Hampshire @ UCF -39.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 6 p.m. CST on ESPN+
Rooting for Gus Malzahn's UCF in a game like this is never a bad idea, despite the numbers. Gus Malzahn dominates weaker opponents like this poor New Hampshire team. As the Knights' head coach, he is 6-0 when they have allowed 23 or more points at home, including two games where they have allowed 40 or more points like they did today, and this style of offense has led them to slide steadily downwards. Even when executed sparingly, Malzahn's option attack is too well designed for FCS schools to handle, and a smaller, slower UNH team will eventually wear down in the Florida heat, allowing the Knights to pull this off, either intentionally or accidentally.
NCAA Football (1 unit) NDSU/Colorado over 59.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 7 p.m. CST on ESPN
This game should be a real battle as neither team thinks they can stop the other. Colorado's talented offense, led by Shedell Sanders, should be able to overwhelm a North Dakota State defense that is missing their All-American safety and struggled to make tackles in space last season. Listening to Coach Prime, it's clear he likes this team, so expect them to run and make a statement when the opportunity arises.
But unless the Buffaloes can prove they have improved their defense, especially their run attack defense, they will continue to allow a lot of points on a weekly basis. NDSU runs the ball with elite level execution behind an offensive line that is churning out NFL talent, so the Bisons will likely score a lot as well. Tonight should be a game with a score in the 60s or higher.
Bonus Bet (0.5 units) NDSU First Half Team Total Over 11.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel)
The first half is when NDSU will have the most chance of success as they execute their specialty offense and continue to attack on the ground. They return two starting running backs and add freshman CharMar Brown, who may be the best of the three. I have zero faith in Colorado's defense, as they allowed 17.8 points per game in the first half last season, ranking 113th in the country. Given Colorado's style of offense, there will be a lot of possessions in this game, especially early on, and the Bison should score plenty here.
Additional Bonus Bet (0.5 units) NDSU +9.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel)
Colorado's cover is the hottest bet in the country right now. So what's the problem? NDSU is a program that torments FBS teams, and they're not going to go quietly into this one with a 7-0 record with six perfect wins in the last seven matchups. And even though Buffalo is the favorite in the betting market, that number hasn't even reached double digits. That means smart investors are predicting the Bison to win by a relatively narrow margin, and I agree.
Degenerate
There are no corrupters today.
Tiny Nick has earned +96.2 units with the Lock since being in zone coverage.
Each day he presents a lock and a degenerate pick, with lock being the game he is most confident in, and degenerate being the more interesting but riskier pick.
