There's another packed schedule of games on Tuesday with all 30 major league teams taking part.
Our betting analyst staff offers three of today's best MLB bets, including a consensus side on the in-form San Diego Padres.
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Today's Best MLB Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is keeping an eye on in today's games: Click on the team logos for any matchup below to access the specific bets featured in this article.
Cody Goggin's best Padres vs Cardinals bets: San Diego has a big moneyline advantage
Cody Goggin
Dylan Cease has been in very good form this season, especially recently.
This season, Cease has a 3.43 ERA and a 3.27 xERA with 193 strikeouts in 154 2/3 innings. Among qualified pitchers, Cease ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate and 92nd percentile in whiff rate.
Cease also ranks in the 67th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 62nd percentile in average exit ball velocity allowed.
He also boasts elite Advanced Pitching Model metrics (123 Stuff+, 101 Location+).
Today he goes up against a Cardinals offense that hasn't performed particularly well this season. The Cardinals are ranked 20th in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, 22nd in SLG and 17th in OBP. As the season has progressed, these numbers have remained steady.
The Cardinals rank 22nd in walk rate, 22nd in hard hit rate, 27th in barrel rate and 22nd in average exit velocity. Their best hitter this season has been Willson Contreras, who unfortunately is on the disabled list for the second time.
San Diego's offense is one of the better in the National League. The Padres rank sixth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, the fifth-lowest walk rate, and are sending the ball to the plate more often. They've also been on a roll lately, ranking third in the league with a wRC+ of 124 over the past month.
Miles Mikolas is not the type of pitcher that would keep me from the Padres in this matchup. He has a 5.19 ERA, a 4.37 ERA and ranks in the ninth percentile for strikeout rate. Mikolas has not allowed a walk, but his batted balls have all been below average this season as well.
San Diego comes into this matchup with a big advantage in starting pitching and offense. Ten games back in the NL Central and six games out of a Wild Card spot, the Cardinals seem done for this year. The Padres should be better than -140 odds in this matchup and I would bet as much as -155 on the money line.
Pick: Padres ML (-140)
Tony Sartori's Best Bets on Padres vs Cardinals: Easy Run Line Predictions
Tony Sartori
The shortness of this line makes absolutely no sense to me. San Diego is the better team in every aspect of this matchup.
The starting pitchers are Dylan Cease of the Padres and Miles Mikolas of St. Louis, with Cease leading Mikolas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen is outperforming the Cardinals in FIP and xFIP.
All that's left is hitting, with the Padres beating St. Louis in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and stolen bases, giving the Padres another advantage.
The only “advantage” the Cardinals could have is home field, and even then, San Diego has a higher road winning percentage than St. Louis has at home.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+125)
Justin Perry's Best Bets on Mets vs Diamondbacks: Our Best Over/Under Picks
Justin Perry
No team scores more at home than the Arizona Diamondbacks.
No team anywhere in the game has scored more runs than Arizona. The Diamondbacks average 5.35 runs per game, ahead of the New York Yankees (5.11). The Mets have also performed well on the road this season, and with powerful hitters Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and J.D. Martinez, they have one of the most complete lineups overall.
To me, the lineup alone favors the Over, but there are pitching staff and environmental factors as well.
Let's start with the latter. In the dry, barren climate of the desert, it's very easy to hit the ball farther. That may explain why the Diamondbacks have a combined O/U record of 38-24-1 when playing at home. Windy conditions and temperatures that are expected to reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday should create favorable hitting conditions and visual memory scenarios.
This is especially true for Mets hitters, who should be able to target the fastball better than they did in their last series against San Diego, where environmental factors could add some breaks. Arizona is the exact opposite, the pitch is flatter, the air is thinner…what more could you want?
You also need a good pitching pairing to bet on the over, and Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez bring that to this bet.
Manaea has been very good this season and may be one of the most underrated players this season, but he still has room to improve. None of his pitches are elite, and his recent strong starts have come right after a fastball, but he won't swing at that fastball tonight.
The Diamondbacks bring in Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been solid in his limited starts (he's spent most of the year on the disabled list), but they've only played the Marlins, Rockies and Guardians and now they'll have to face some hot streaks in the desert, neither of which have the best relievers in the league.
Pick: 8.5+ (-110)
Pick: Mets vs Diamondbacks 8.5+
About the Author
The Action Network is a team of experienced sports betting experts specialising in a wide range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream sports such as cricket and darts. The staff includes renowned analysts such as Sean Koerner and Stuckey, who are known for their accurate predictions and in-depth knowledge of sports. The team is dedicated to providing expert analysis and the best daily bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed on all major sports.
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