There are 15 MLB games on the schedule to choose from today, and you can keep track of the latest odds and betting percentages for each game with VSiN Betting Splits, provided directly by DraftKings and updated every 10 minutes.
In the meantime, let's take a look at where the smart money is leaning on today's three games.
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The Royals (74-58) won yesterday's series-opening doubleheader, winning 4-3 as -125 road favorites and then winning again 9-4 as +120 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Royals will field right-hander Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.47 ERA) and the Guardians (75-57) will field right-hander Gavin Williams (2-6, 5.13 ERA). The line started with Cleveland as the -145 home favorite and Kansas City as the +125 road dog. Wiseguy conservatively predicted Cleveland would fight back, bumping the Guardians from -145 to -155. Cleveland has won 60% of the money line bets, which indicates slight public support, but has also been honored with sharp moves toward them in the form of 10-cent steam moves. Cleveland has a questionable value in its betting system, which pits losing teams against winning teams. The Guardians are 3-8 in their last 11 games, while the Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 games, in a buy-low-sell-high situation. Cleveland is 40-23 at home, making them the third-best home team in MLB. The Guardians have a big advantage in their relief corps, with an ERA of 2.77 (second-best in MLB) and the Royals 4.39 (24th).
The Giants (66-66) lost two of three games against the Mariners before losing 4-3 in Sunday's series finale as road dogs at +120. Meanwhile, the Brewers (75-55) won two of three games against the Athletics but lost 4-3 in Sunday's series finale as road favorites at -145, missing out on a sweep. In tonight's series opener, the Giants will start right-hander Logan Webb (11-8, 3.13 ERA) while the Brewers will start right-hander Tobias Myers (6-5, 2.87 ERA). The line started with San Francisco as road favorites at -115 and Milwaukee as home dogs at -105. The public is split down the middle and it's hard to know which way to bet. But despite this even betting split, the lines have been seen moving from the Giants (-115 to -105) to the Brewers (-105 to -115). This shows that the pros are favoring the home team at the coin toss price, with the Milwaukee line moving heavily from “underdog to favorite.” The Brewers have won 53% of the money line bets, but have won 84% of the money line dollars. The notable “low bet, high dollar” large betting discrepancy shows a mass of undecided people and a lot of smart money. Milwaukee is batting .253 with 626 runs scored, while San Francisco is batting .242 with 568 runs scored. The Giants are 28-38 on the road. The Brewers are 38-24 at home. Webb has a 4.11 ERA on the road and 2.26 at home. They also have a 3.48 ERA as nighttime pitchers compared to 2.57 as daytime pitchers. Myers has a 2.05 ERA in four starts in August, allowing just five runs in 22 innings pitched. His ERA is 3.68 as daytime pitchers compared to 2.28 as nighttime pitchers.
The Mariners (67-65) won last night's series opener 5-1 as -130 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Rays (65-66) will field left-hander Jeffrey Springs (1-2, 4.50 ERA) and the Mariners will send out right-hander Logan Gilbert (7-10, 3.21 ERA). The line starts with Seattle as the -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay as the +120 road dog. The Sharps are riding a good hand and making conservative bets on Seattle, taking the Mariners from -140 to -155. Seattle receives about 75% of moneyline wagers and dollars, and is a one-sided favorite from pros and laypeople, with 15 cents of favoritism. The Mariners have a more explosive offense, hitting 146 home runs and scoring 521 runs, compared to the Rays hitting 121 home runs and scoring 503 runs. Seattle is worth the relative bet as the favorite with a super low total game (6.5), and the fewer expected runs, the more likely they will be scored by the better team expected to win. The Mariners are also worth the betting system as the non-division favorite, and unfamiliarity also favors the team expected to win. The Mariners are 40-27 at home. The Rays are 31-32 on the road. Springs has a 7.56 ERA on the road compared to 2.63 at home. Gilbert has a 2.53 ERA at home compared to 3.81 on the road.
